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Chances of an August Ban Wave (Please Close Thread)
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htorihpeS
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29. July 2010 @ 23:05 |
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Not trying to worry people or create pandemonium but just want to get some opinions. Last year's ban hammer hit hard and many people were banned who stealth patched and fully verified their games with ABGX. The conclusion was made that M$ could likely check a 360 drive's firmware when connected to Live. The only possible solution to this was either to stay offline or to risk using LT firmware, fully verify with ABGX, apply splitvid and ensure all wave 3 and upwards games were patched with ssv2. Last year, M$ banned more people than they had ever done before but also added new punishments. These included removing the feature to install games to the hard disk and corrupting the profile and game saves on the banned console.
So what am I getting at? Well the time of year has come when a ban wave could happen. Halo Reach is just over a month away and usually M$ strike a few weeks before the release of a blockbuster title. We don't know if LT is successful until a ban wave happens. I've been using LT online since February and have fully verified all of my games. However, I did apply the unofficial update to ABGX in order to verify Wave 5 and 6 games. I may well get banned just because of that. Anyway, I don't mind being banned but I do mind the negative defects that come with the banning (inability to transfer and upload achievements from banned console). Thus, if I'm offline during the wave, I can check by ringing for repair whether my console has been banned or not. The question is, should I stay offline all next month or should I take the risk? So what's your opinion on it? What do you think are the chances of a ban wave next month? I'd say 40%. It could be higher but so many people were banned last year that there is much fewer online now. I wouldn't advise people to stay offline entirely but don't connect the ethernet cable if you're playing a game in single player.
Let's say the chances of being banned with LT are 60%. Multiply .6 by .4 to get the chances of being banned next month. Assuming these probabilities are correct, the chances of being banned next month is 24%. Like I said, what do you think the chances are? Thanks for reading.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 29. July 2010 @ 23:09
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. July 2010 @ 04:27 |
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I think its highly likely there will be another ban wave, reckon it will tie in with the new COD.
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htorihpeS
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30. July 2010 @ 10:06 |
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Originally posted by miketrev:
I think its highly likely there will be another ban wave, reckon it will tie in with the new COD.
Its hard to know when they'll start it though. They could start banning people before Reach or wait until October before COD. I'm not sure how they do it but they probably ban everyone who has received a certain quantity of flags who have been online with a modded console before the ban wave. So if they ban people before Reach comes out, then those same people can mod another console before COD comes out and won't be banned until the ban wave in 2011. So if that's how their ban wave works, then it will probably happen before Black Ops, like you said. It will be interesting to see how many people will be banned with LT.
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CawkFour
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31. July 2010 @ 11:15 |
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i love the completely random and made up percentages in your OP.
you can beat this dead horse to death with theories and speculation but nobody really 'knows' anything. people have been banned with every version of modded software and i'm guessing it's not going to stop.
people on here have said it a million times but if you mod your box... you take the chance of a ban. so just enjoy it and play. if you get banned... you get banned. there's no sense in constantly worrying about it. your just going to cause yourself stress for no reason.
C.R.3.A.M.
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Senior Member
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31. July 2010 @ 15:58 |
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Originally posted by CawkFour:
i love the completely random and made up percentages in your OP.
you can beat this dead horse to death with theories and speculation but nobody really 'knows' anything. people have been banned with every version of modded software and i'm guessing it's not going to stop.
people on here have said it a million times but if you mod your box... you take the chance of a ban. so just enjoy it and play. if you get banned... you get banned. there's no sense in constantly worrying about it. your just going to cause yourself stress for no reason.
could'nt agree more. this thread is pointless, as it will just insight random theories and noob panic.At the end of the day, its just a console- try not to worry about whatever happens ban wise.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 31. July 2010 @ 15:58
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htorihpeS
Member
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1. August 2010 @ 10:16 |
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Originally posted by uturn68:
Originally posted by CawkFour:
i love the completely random and made up percentages in your OP.
you can beat this dead horse to death with theories and speculation but nobody really 'knows' anything. people have been banned with every version of modded software and i'm guessing it's not going to stop.
people on here have said it a million times but if you mod your box... you take the chance of a ban. so just enjoy it and play. if you get banned... you get banned. there's no sense in constantly worrying about it. your just going to cause yourself stress for no reason.
could'nt agree more. this thread is pointless, as it will just insight random theories and noob panic.At the end of the day, its just a console- try not to worry about whatever happens ban wise.
As I said at the beginning, the point of this thread is not to cause panic and I'm not stressed over it. My made up percentages were merely hypotheses on what I think the chances of being banned are. I was looking for opinions on whether there will be an August ban wave or not. You don't have to know to give an opinion. These opinions could help me and others make the decision on whether to stay online or offline during August. I think I will be banned and its obvious that everybody takes a risk. I just want to assess that risk for the month of August.
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2. August 2010 @ 02:09 |
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This topic is brought up before every "BANWAVE". The answers are still the same. The point people are trying to make in the latter posts are that even if you stay offline during a banwave, if you're flagged and go back on after the banwave, your console will still banned....AFTER the so called banwave. So there's really no point in staying off of XBOX live and therefore this topic is useless. You modded the drive, you took the risk, so enjoy it while you can...take precautions meanwhile and try to beat the banwave. If you don't, buy an unmodded console, and use that to play online and PAY for your games. ~GASP!~
"All drives should be updated to Lite Touch + (LT+) firmware if playing on XBOX live. Samsung drives and pre-78/79 Hitachi drives do not utilize AP 2.5. All other drives are considered to be detectable by Microsoft (YMMV). Make sure all rips are ABGX verified, contain SSv2, and patched AP2.5 (where needed). XGD3 must currently be burned on new drive with PC Burner Max firmware for 100% rip. All modded consoles can be potentially unsafe for use on XBOX live."
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AfterDawn Addict
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2. August 2010 @ 14:59 |
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Originally posted by CawkFour:
you can beat this dead horse to death
you mean i have to re-kill it? Is it a zombie-horse?
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Modking30
AfterDawn Addict
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2. August 2010 @ 15:56 |
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Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
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htorihpeS
Member
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2. August 2010 @ 22:29 |
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Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
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2. August 2010 @ 22:37 |
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Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
I don't think you read my post. Whether you stay off or on, before or after, once you're flagged, you're banned. Pointless.
"All drives should be updated to Lite Touch + (LT+) firmware if playing on XBOX live. Samsung drives and pre-78/79 Hitachi drives do not utilize AP 2.5. All other drives are considered to be detectable by Microsoft (YMMV). Make sure all rips are ABGX verified, contain SSv2, and patched AP2.5 (where needed). XGD3 must currently be burned on new drive with PC Burner Max firmware for 100% rip. All modded consoles can be potentially unsafe for use on XBOX live."
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CawkFour
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 01:32 |
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i actually just heard from a friend that microsoft could possibly be dropping the banhammer every month from now on. i would suggest staying offline every month until ms has discontinued the 360. and even to be safe... i'd suggest staying off an extra 6 months past that. it might be tough to find matches but at least you'll be safe.
listen to mcgreaser... he speaks teh tru7h.
C.R.3.A.M.
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Modking30
AfterDawn Addict
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3. August 2010 @ 07:35 |
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Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
August ban wave, give me a break. This worthless thread needs closed. You have no proof of a ban wave and are making up stupid stories to worry people. What's the point?
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Beno420
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 09:19 |
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Yeah, this thread should be closed. You take the risk to mod the drive, then you take a risk of getting banned as well. I just don't see why you would worry, xbox 360's are soooo cheap anymore. Anyone can throw out random guesses, so you could say 29% or 38% could be banned, but then again your just making crap up from nothing. Buy your games so we don't have to hear made up percentages about the amount of people that could POSSIBLY be banned. Now where in the heck did I put my coffee....
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htorihpeS
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 10:03 |
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Originally posted by Beno420:
Yeah, this thread should be closed. You take the risk to mod the drive, then you take a risk of getting banned as well. I just don't see why you would worry, xbox 360's are soooo cheap anymore. Anyone can throw out random guesses, so you could say 29% or 38% could be banned, but then again your just making crap up from nothing. Buy your games so we don't have to hear made up percentages about the amount of people that could POSSIBLY be banned. Now where in the heck did I put my coffee....[/quote
I simply made a hypothesis on the chances of being banned in August, I didn't state that they were the actual percentages but you were probably too ignorant to read everything above. If you don't like this thread, you don't have to read it. Also, did I say I was worrying about being banned? I simply wanted to get opinions on the possibility of a ban wave this month. I didn't want fools like you coming on complaining about a thread you don't have to read. You seem to the lack the intellect required to comprehend what this thread was created for, as do many others on this site.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. August 2010 @ 10:06
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htorihpeS
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3. August 2010 @ 10:07 |
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Originally posted by MrGreaser:
Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
I don't think you read my post. Whether you stay off or on, before or after, once you're flagged, you're banned. Pointless.
I did read your post. If you're online when banned, your xbox is corrupted. That doesn't happen when you're offline. Thus, there is an incentive to stay offline when a ban wave is likely to occur.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. August 2010 @ 10:08
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htorihpeS
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 10:11 |
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Originally posted by Modking30:
Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
August ban wave, give me a break. This worthless thread needs closed. You have no proof of a ban wave and are making up stupid stories to worry people. What's the point?
I never said I had proof and I never said there was going to be a ban wave. That's what the thread is for. To get people's thoughts on whether there will be a ban wave or not. Maybe that's a bit complicated for you to understand. Why comment on this thread if you don't like it? Instead you just want to be a hostile troll. Its not my fault you're dumb.
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Senior Member
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3. August 2010 @ 10:12 |
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Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by MrGreaser:
Originally posted by htorihpeS:
Originally posted by Modking30:
Why not add this to the other 5zillion ban threads? who cares? You know the risks! I can't believe people wine and cry about getting banned. Maybe you should just go buy games and play on a non-modded box. Guarantee no ban!
Who's whining and crying? Yes I do know the risks. that doesn't mean I don't try assess the risks. I wouldn't like to get banned but I won't whine if I do as I think its likely and I knew the risks before flashing my 360. Banned or not, modding is still economically efficient to me. Though if there is a high risk of being banned in August, why go online? Maybe there isn't a high risk but that's what I wanted to get people's opinions on. I don't want theories or whining, just opinions on the chances of an August ban wave. Hence the reason for this thread. You see, complaining about the thread is not answering my question. Why people can't understand that is beyond me.
I don't think you read my post. Whether you stay off or on, before or after, once you're flagged, you're banned. Pointless.
I did read your post. If you're online when banned, your xbox is corrupted. That doesn't happen when you're offline. Thus, there is an incentive to stay offline when a ban wave is likely to occur.
You're not making much sense. If your concern is having a corrupted profile, then never go on xbox live ever again. Problem solved!
Oh wait, I'm sorry, I thought this post was about waffles when I first replied. Does anybody know where I can find the new lite toast firmware?
"All drives should be updated to Lite Touch + (LT+) firmware if playing on XBOX live. Samsung drives and pre-78/79 Hitachi drives do not utilize AP 2.5. All other drives are considered to be detectable by Microsoft (YMMV). Make sure all rips are ABGX verified, contain SSv2, and patched AP2.5 (where needed). XGD3 must currently be burned on new drive with PC Burner Max firmware for 100% rip. All modded consoles can be potentially unsafe for use on XBOX live."
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Beno420
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 10:59 |
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No, your problem is that the members of this site have to deal with morons, and you just put yourself in that catagory. Why do you ask for "opinions"? Does it matter if I say this percent or that percent, when in fact you and everyone else knows nothing about any wave or future wave? This just causes more morons to come on here and make posts about "possible bans" when no one knows when that will happen. So i guess we should make a "hypothesis" for august, september, october, etc. since it could happen at any time. You are the moron and everyone on this site is telling you so. Your opinions are worthless like the point of making a "hypothesis" post about ban waves. I read all the post here and try to help when I can, as well as all the members that have been here for some time, but when we see people with moronic posts, we let them know about it. So look, everyone has let you know!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. August 2010 @ 11:00
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brooksonj
Suspended permanently
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3. August 2010 @ 15:54 |
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Originally posted by Beno420:
No, your problem is that the members of this site have to deal with morons, and you just put yourself in that catagory. Why do you ask for "opinions"? Does it matter if I say this percent or that percent, when in fact you and everyone else knows nothing about any wave or future wave? This just causes more morons to come on here and make posts about "possible bans" when no one knows when that will happen. So i guess we should make a "hypothesis" for august, september, october, etc. since it could happen at any time. You are the moron and everyone on this site is telling you so. Your opinions are worthless like the point of making a "hypothesis" post about ban waves. I read all the post here and try to help when I can, as well as all the members that have been here for some time, but when we see people with moronic posts, we let them know about it. So look, everyone has let you know!
This is a forum. That crap will happen. Be the bigger man and walk out of the thread when you see BS instead of contributing more irrelevant and useless comments.
People come here and ask questions because they're not that bright. You all choose to hang out here and help these 'special' people.
Yet I constantly see people whinging about what is normal activity for a forum of this nature.
So why are you guys here? To help out less intelligent people than yourselves, or to poke fun, be a smart ass and bitch?
It's happening so often here these days, I don't think I've seen more than 2 threads in the last month where someone wasn't being a cheeky a-hole.
This place seems to have become a playground for the seniors and addicts to say and do whatever they please with no repercussions.
It's really making me not want to be here, and that sucks because this site used to be fantastic.
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Beno420
Member
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3. August 2010 @ 17:02 |
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Originally posted by brooksonj:
Originally posted by Beno420:
No, your problem is that the members of this site have to deal with morons, and you just put yourself in that catagory. Why do you ask for "opinions"? Does it matter if I say this percent or that percent, when in fact you and everyone else knows nothing about any wave or future wave? This just causes more morons to come on here and make posts about "possible bans" when no one knows when that will happen. So i guess we should make a "hypothesis" for august, september, october, etc. since it could happen at any time. You are the moron and everyone on this site is telling you so. Your opinions are worthless like the point of making a "hypothesis" post about ban waves. I read all the post here and try to help when I can, as well as all the members that have been here for some time, but when we see people with moronic posts, we let them know about it. So look, everyone has let you know!
This is a forum. That crap will happen. Be the bigger man and walk out of the thread when you see BS instead of contributing more irrelevant and useless comments.
People come here and ask questions because they're not that bright. You all choose to hang out here and help these 'special' people.
Yet I constantly see people whinging about what is normal activity for a forum of this nature.
So why are you guys here? To help out less intelligent people than yourselves, or to poke fun, be a smart ass and bitch?
It's happening so often here these days, I don't think I've seen more than 2 threads in the last month where someone wasn't being a cheeky a-hole.
This place seems to have become a playground for the seniors and addicts to say and do whatever they please with no repercussions.
It's really making me not want to be here, and that sucks because this site used to be fantastic.
I rarely ever comment bad about anyone on here. Maybe twice and Ive been a member for some time. I agree, when I first found afterdawn, I though it was the greatest site ever, but over time it was dwindled away to just an okay site(Elitemodscene is more helpful anymore). I could have walked away, but obviously I didn't. It just kills me to think people are trying to give "an educated guess" on something that they know nothing about, nor does anyone but MS themselves. Overall, how many posts with the word "banned" has been posted here? Way too many. That doesnt make it right and I know that so im not going act like its ok, but we have all had enough of this Banned crap.
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4. August 2010 @ 15:54 |
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this site is like every other site I've been a part of. People helping people, and occasionally talking smack as they do it.
I do it from time to time. poke fun at the person I'm helping. I will also poke fun at the person who asks a question that he obviously does't know the answer to, yet won't take the advice that multiple addicts and seniors give him. I'll also poke fun at the poster who gives bad/wrong advice based simply on his opinion. (Whenever I'm not 100% certain, I let that be known in the post, i.e. "I'm not sure but you may wanna try a better media").
Sometimes some need to be made fun of.
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Gary79
Member
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5. August 2010 @ 03:29 |
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Hey guys, I just left a voice mail message with M$. I inquired as to when will the ban wave begin and for how long aswell as the criteria for banning. According to there customer service satisfaction guarentee policy, they have 48 hours to respond. I'll keep you updated.
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5. August 2010 @ 14:30 |
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Originally posted by Gary79:
Hey guys, I just left a voice mail message with M$. I inquired as to when will the ban wave begin and for how long aswell as the criteria for banning. According to there customer service satisfaction guarentee policy, they have 48 hours to respond. I'll keep you updated.
Nice one, let us know.
Anyone taking bets on powering up without the DVD SATA cable connected is a flag?
To get instant assistance with Flashing / JTAG / Homebrew from experts for free! click me (Im not one of the said experts BTW)
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Modking30
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5. August 2010 @ 15:00 |
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I'm friends with Bill Gates and he told me they are banning all the noobs on A.D. Only the modders who know how to solder and handle the real mods will NOT get banned. Of course bill is a member of A.D. and hates the noobs as much as I do.
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