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Blu-ray players sell almost 13:1 against HD DVD
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 23 January, 2008
According to the NPD Group's latest report, Blu-ray players have taken a massive leap in market share. In december Blu-ray players held 60 percent of the high-definition player market, the week after HD DVD camp Blu-ray finished with a huge lead of 93 percent, making this year's market share approximately 70-30 for Blu-ray.
Even though the study only spans one week, the difference is ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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Senior Member
5 product reviews
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23. January 2008 @ 12:26 |
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Quote:
He has also said that the ps3 was a flop. even though the ps3 sold more consoles in its first year that the 360 did.
Please tell me your joking! I thought even the stupidity of blu fan boys had its limits.
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juankerr
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23. January 2008 @ 12:27 |
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Originally posted by duckNrun:
Movie sales in BD format are not even TWICE as high as the sales in HD-DVD format.
Market share of HD movies:
Top 10 HD discs:
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vinny13
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23. January 2008 @ 12:34 |
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lmao
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SDF_GR
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23. January 2008 @ 12:35 |
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Originally posted by ikari:
Not to insult anyone but if you think that anything is over, you are wrong. You should all know by reading Afterdawn articles that business can change their policies on a dime or whim with little or no reason that we would know of. Who says that movie studios won't switch back over? You don't know. Heck, I don't know either. It can still go either way. The only way we will is when one of the formats say that they will stop producing their disks. Period, end of story.
You are terrible wrong, cause if BD keep this pace, in 2 months (at the most)even companies wouldent be able to turn the situation around.
Remember that we are talking about Sony, and sony isnt toshiba.
Sony can, and have proved many times that has some great power, sony even managed to turn Warner Blu, some say with money, some say with good management , either way Sony has accomplished there goal thats the point.
If this numbers keep up HD-DVD would be a hero if manages to stay alive till the end of february.
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duckNrun
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23. January 2008 @ 12:59 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by duckNrun:
Movie sales in BD format are not even TWICE as high as the sales in HD-DVD format.
Market share of HD movies:
Top 10 HD discs:
I'm confused.... are you making my point for me or arguing against it? LOL
Let's look at each of the graphs you posted:
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Week ending 1/13
HDDVD = 15%
BD = 85%
WOW... looking good here! Of course one week doesn't really show the true picture. I once made $10,000 in one week. Did I end the year making over 1/2 a million? Nope. The other 51 weeks do, after all, count. But true to say they were stomped that week. But again not many great movies in either format that week IMHO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Year to Date
HDDVD = 26%
BD = 74%
Just under a 3:1 lead in favor of BD. So 3x as many BD discs sold as HD-DVD. Still not looking bad for BD until you again read the title of this article saying a 13:1 lead in HW sales. 3:1 is better than less but still nowhere near reflecting the amount of HW sold which predicts the amount of discs potentially to be bought
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since Inception
HDDVD = 37%
BD = 63%
Let's do the math for everyone here. 37 times 2 = 74. What is the percentage for BD? 63. Is 63 greater than or less than 74? Hmmmm... I think it is less than. That means that BD discs have sold less than twice the amount of HD DVD discs sold even though HD DVD HW is 1/13 the unit sales.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So while it is a 'win' of sorts for BD to go from selling just under twice as many discs with 13x the hardware sold to selling 3x as many discs in this year that is still a negative sales difference of 10 TIMES the hardware sales.
Now on a tangent:
Let's remember that a movie player is not considered, by most people, as a product they buy if they do not plan on supporting that purchase with movies to play on it. However in this case it appears to be doing exactly that. People are buying BD but not buying the movies (which is where the movie studios make their money btw). What this means is that most people who buy BD buy less movies per unit capita than their HD DVD counterparts do.
As for the chart showing the top 10 sales being all BD let me simply say:
I would freaking HOPE so when they have 13 TIMES the hardware units sold. No one here is saying that HD DVD is selling more movies than BD with a 1/13th hardware ownership only that they are selling more than their market share when compared to the number of units of BD in people's homes.
That stat is virtually meaningless. It would be like saying that out of 13 million McDonalds and only 1 million Burger Kings that McD's sells more fries than burger king. OF COURSE THEY DO.... it's a numbers game. The shocker would be to say that even with 13M McD's and 1M BK's that BK commands 33%-50% of the market share of fast food diners. If this were a real restaurant situation with these numbers you would see MANY MANY MANY McDonald's being closed down and turned into PayDay Loans businesses instead!
Stats are easy to fudge and even easier to confound. I.E. stats show that as ice cream sales increase so do the number of deaths by drowning. It is ridiculous to say ice cream is causing people to drown it is accurate to say that the stats are meaningless and the variables used had some confounding factor the number crunchers didn't take into account-- or ignored so as to make the numbers say what they wanted them to.
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juankerr
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23. January 2008 @ 13:20 |
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ducknrun:
I guess I need to clarify the news item for you.
The 13:1 ratio is sales of standalones for the week ending 1/12/2008.
Other hardware/standalone numbers from NPD and Toshiba are discussed very well in error5's post here:
http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/4/616251
To summarize:
On October 9th, 2007 Toshiba claimed it had 53% of standalone sales (Q1 to Q3 of 2007).
During their CES 2008 conference Toshiba showed a pie chart showing their share of the standalone market had diminished to 49.3% - this covers the entire year of 2007.
NPD released numbers that showed BluRay had 60% of the standalone sales in December 2007 - the busiest shopping month of the year.
NPD numbers also showed a 69:31 lead for BluRay standalones during the first 2 weeks of 2008.
The 13:1 ratio for standalone sales (92.5% to 7.5%) was for the week ending 1/12/08 and is considered a direct result of the Warner announcement declaring bluRay exclusivity.
The 85:15 ratio for the week ending 1/13/08 for software sales was also a direct result of the Warner announcement.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 13:40
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eatsushi
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23. January 2008 @ 13:54 |
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duckNrun: I agree with juankerr.
These new numbers for standalone sales and software sales have to be taken within the context of the Warner announcement.
It was the Warner announcement that sent shockwaves through the HDM industry and turned the HD market upside down.
BTW, I don't believe in attachment rates and I don't think the studios pay much attention to it too. What matters to them is their bottom line.
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rcd87
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23. January 2008 @ 14:07 |
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Originally posted by ikari:
if you think that anything is over, you are wrong. You should all know by reading Afterdawn articles that business can change their policies on a dime or whim with little or no reason that we would know of.
- Precisely (and thank you ikari).
When the truth is that Blu-ray have sold only 6 million movie discs in almost 2 years in a market that sees annual sales of 750 million+ then all these tales of winning anything are just invention.
It's all just 'drop in the ocean' stuff.
It doesn't matter that it's a slightly larger 'drop in the ocean' than that HD DVD is showing right now,
the central point is that 97% of nothing is still almost nothing.
The rest is just the usual noise to attempt to talk-up and encourage 'momentum'
(which has been a Blu-ray trademark all the way through this).
you keep going on about hd disc sales being so small compared to dvd but as ive said before dvd was in the same boat when it was first released, blu-ray and hddvd have sold roughly 9 million discs between them, in the first 2 years dvd was around it sold 9.2 million discs
ok blu-ray disc sales are small but give it time, you cant expect millions of people to just overnight go out and ditch dvd and buy dozens of blu-ray films, we are not gonna know for another 2 years if blu-ray sales are gonna be anywhere near dvd sales after it had been out for 4 years, and you have to remember it took dvd over 5 years to overtake vhs, so blu-ray still has to be given time
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vinny13
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23. January 2008 @ 14:09 |
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I have to give it to duckNrun for talking about HD-DVD in a positive manner and at the same time not ripping Blu-Ray to pieces by making retarded claims like some people...
I'm not mentioning any names...
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hughjars
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23. January 2008 @ 14:09 |
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I see Warner have shifted a little.
Quote:
Warner extends HD DVD support
Burbank (CA) - Warner Home Video announced this week that it will continue to release titles on HD DVD for three weeks longer than it originally anticipated.
Earlier this month, Warner said that it is going to stop supporting HD DVD in May. However, it has now decided to push that deadline back a few weeks to be able to release more of its upcoming titles on both formats.
Despite Warner's Blu-ray exclusivity announcement, over a dozen Warner titles are still slated for release on HD DVD over the next four months. The extension of HD DVD support confirms that Twister and Bonnie & Clyde will come out on both formats instead of being Blu-ray exclusives.
Some other notable Warner titles that will still be released on both formats include Justice League: The New Frontier, I Am Legend, and August Rush.
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35741/98/
- I know it's not much but a significant shift is still a significant shift.
Let's just see how dependable a post-dated move really is when we come to it.
Now why would they even do this much if it was all done & dusted and HD DVD had lost already, hmmmmmmm?!
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eatsushi
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23. January 2008 @ 14:18 |
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Originally posted by hughjars:
- I know it's not much but a significant shift is still a significant shift.
This is because upcoming Warner BluRay titles are what's called timed exclusives. They are released 3 weeks ahead of the HD DVD version and are day and date with the DVD version.
For example:
I Am Legend will be released on BluRay and DVD on March 18.
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/1336/iamlegend.html
The HD DVD release is scheduled 3 weeks later for April 8.
http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/1337/iamlegend.html
The tree-week extension is just to let the HD DVD releases catch up with the BluRay ones.
This 3-week delay includes catalog titles:
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/W...log_Titles/1386
According to HDD the last dual format title for Warner will be Twister - BluRay for May 6th and HD DVD for May 27th.
Warner will still be BluRay exclusive after all the scheduled HD DVD titles are released.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 14:33
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duckNrun
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23. January 2008 @ 14:48 |
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juankerr, so we agree on what the charts were saying-- more BD HW than HD DVD HW. More BD Discs sold than HD DVD discs. BD disc sales are not equivalent to the amount of HW currently sitting on peoples shelves (sitting idly gathering dust or not resulting in sales for BD content-- which does the studios no good).
Vinny thanks for the compliment :-)
And the increase of BD HW sales most likely was affected by Warner's annnouncement. By extension and increase in HW sales SHOULD increase SW sales as well.
What is not clear is what affect this will have in say two weeks from now. One could theorize that the sudden increase in sales was because Warner's plan worked and now mass adoption of BD, and HD, are coming into full swing.
However, one could also argue that the jump in sales was from the early adopters, and others, jumping the HD DVD ship and rebuying their stuff in BD format. Early adopters are known to want the 'latesat and greatest' faced with their belief that HD DVD was dying the best time to sell off their HD DVD SW and HW would have been already past. Next best thing is to sell fast and sell now to get the most money back as possible before the HD DVD crash hits (not my belief btw just debating the point). More mainstream consumers could have heard the news and had the same idea. I am sure that lots of places will still accept Christmas returns on the HW. The movies sell on eBay and rebuy them, or others, in BD.
A boost in sales is expected when 'major' news is announced. And for those people looking for the 'winning format' or hearing about this could consider this to be major news-- thus kick starting them into their buying.
But what happens when this group's demand is fullfilled? What about the other 51 weeks so to speak. IF 8% (the amount of HD DVD owners compared to the total of HD owners) are buying 33% of the HD movies what happens if the HD DVD HW buyers increase to 12% (A 50% increase in HD DVD HW)? If these new buyers follow the trend of the other HD DVD owners they will increase this 33% disc sales up to 50% of the discs sold in either format.
There is more to the 'big picture', more to the truth behind the numbers than just HW sales. If HD DVD continues to undersell BD but sells almost as much, as much, or more SW than BD even with the huge difference in devices in the home that will be big news. And SOMEONE will eventually have to take a look at that. Movie studios are by nature greedy, profit driven enterprises and can only shirk aside a sizeable portion of their prospect consumers for so long. Right now total HD sales are so minimal as to not even make much of a difference. But it will not be this way forever.
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AfterDawn Addict
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23. January 2008 @ 14:49 |
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Nice the landslide is building momentum toward the poor HDVD village.
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23. January 2008 @ 15:15 |
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Nice to see the personal attacks continuing.....
Originally posted by ikari:
Not to insult anyone but if you think that anything is over, you are wrong. You should all know by reading Afterdawn articles that business can change their policies on a dime or whim with little or no reason that we would know of. Who says that movie studios won't switch back over? You don't know. Heck, I don't know either. It can still go either way. The only way we will is when one of the formats say that they will stop producing their disks. Period, end of story.
Bang on target! It's not over 'til it's completely over, and I doubt that the insults traded here are going to influence how long it'll be before either side relents.
As far as the figures go at the moment, I'd not read too much into it just yet. BD will undoubtedly be enjoying a honeymoon period with TW's exclusivity deal still fresh in everyone's minds, but a week is a long time in politics as they say (and it's obvious that all the decisions made in this format war are either political or commercial).
This "War" is only that because certain elements of the media (and maybe the odd forum user or two) have chosen to make it that way and keep pushing that one format eventually must win. What we're seeing is some deeply anti-competetive moves by both camps which have ultimately been bad for the consumer and equally for the smaller film producers who - if it transpires that Blu-ray eventually "Win" - are likely to end up having to pay higher duplication costs, simply because there's no alternative but to use Sony's duplication equipment (I've worked in the duplication industry before and I have a fairly good idea how it works).
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 15:16
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23. January 2008 @ 15:37 |
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I'll just continue to buy the movies I like in HD. I wanted Zodiac, so I bought it on HD DVD even though people are saying it's a dead format. I don't think this whole thing has anything to do with what people prefer beyond what movies they like. Release something like The Bourne Ultimatum everyweek and you'll get an HD victory. It's pretty simple.
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juankerr
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23. January 2008 @ 15:42 |
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Originally posted by duckNrun:
juankerr, so we agree on what the charts were saying-- more BD HW than HD DVD HW. More BD Discs sold than HD DVD discs. BD disc sales are not equivalent to the amount of HW currently sitting on peoples shelves (sitting idly gathering dust or not resulting in sales for BD content-- which does the studios no good).
By extension and increase in HW sales SHOULD increase SW sales as well.
I think it's difficult to gauge a format's succes based on attach rates. You can't really say that a format is not doing well if disc sales are "not equivalent to the amount of HW." I can think of a couple of reasons for this:
> There's no way of knowing if someone who buys a player is a new owner or someone who is on his 2nd or even 3rd machine.
I know of people on both sides who have 2 or even 3 players. In this forum I know error5 and eatsushi both have two HD DVD players each. You don't expect these people to buy more than one copy of a movie, right?
This in itself makes attachment rates useless.
>Software sales are driven by titles. If a movie that has done well in the box office gets released then you expect an uptick in numbers. Take for example the weeks when Transformers, Spiderman3, Bourne, and Pirates 3 were released. The good titles also have strong 2nd week and later sales.
After the Warner announcement the only significant titles were 3:10 to Yuma on BD and Zodiac on HD DVD.
You also need to take into consideration the effect of special offers, price reductions and BOGO's.
Quote:
But what happens when this group's demand is fullfilled? What about the other 51 weeks so to speak. IF 8% (the amount of HD DVD owners compared to the total of HD owners) are buying 33% of the HD movies what happens if the HD DVD HW buyers increase to 12% (A 50% increase in HD DVD HW)? If these new buyers follow the trend of the other HD DVD owners they will increase this 33% disc sales up to 50% of the discs sold in either format.
This is where the effect of the Warner announcement will be seen.
Take your scenario for example: Just because HD DVD HW buyers increases to 12% doesn't mean they'll be able to increase HD DVD's software market share to 50%. It could happen if the playing field was level - meaning if all titles were available on both formats.
With majority of studios and majority of titles on BluRay's side I highly doubt that HD DVD will be able to garner 50%. Last year with Warner still dual format HD DVD wasn't able to do it even while holding the lead in standalone sales. They lost all 52 weeks of 2007 plus the last 2 weeks of 2006. Now that Warner is with BluRay their chances of getting 50% are diminished even further.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 16:03
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hughjars
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23. January 2008 @ 16:07 |
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HD DVD player sales continue to do very very well (as we can see on the Amazon USA stats - which I'll take over any 'commissioned' research any day).
We also can see plenty of HD DVD owners on the various forums making it clear that their HD DVD players upscale so well that if a movie is unavailable on HD DVD they will simply buy the SD DVD instead.
That's why the SD DVD/Blu-ray split is so relevant to all of this - even if Blu-ray tie up a majority of movie studios.
Not only do HD DVD owners have a decent alternative if the movies they want are not available on HD DVD (or HD DVD imports) but this all helps ensure that Blu-ray will not be going anywhere & certainly not escaping the game console niche.
That's why only 6 million movie disc sales in 2 years compared to a movie disc market with 750 million + sales is so relevant.
It's all just 'drop in the ocean' stuff, no matter how much the fanclub wish to try and talk it up.
Only HD DVD can offer Twin discs or combo discs which ensure no-one gets left behind or hurt by the switch to high def.
Blu-ray cannot do this.
It is the anti-consumer choice for the vast majority of consumers.
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23. January 2008 @ 16:14 |
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I haven't heard much good about the combo discs myself. I've got quite a few friends who say they crack on the SD side and are only playable on HD. I don't know how they're made or anything like that, but my friend says that he's convinced they must be glued together considering they crack so easily.
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juankerr
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23. January 2008 @ 16:17 |
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Here's some clarification from NPD:
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6524995.html?desc=topstory
For the full year of 2007 the standalone breakdown is as follows:
HD DVD - 49%
BluRay - 49%
Dual Format - 2%
This does not include the PS3.
They also give their reason for the sudden 93:7 ratio for the week ending 1/12/08:
Quote:
NPD attributed the results largely to promotions run by several Blu-ray supporting manufacturers, and said they were not necessarily the result of reaction to the news that Warner Bros. would be dropping support of HD DVD to go exclusively with Blu-ray in May.
Quote:
HD DVD player sales continue to do very very well (as we can see on the Amazon USA stats - which I'll take over any 'commissioned' research any day).
The above 2007 numbers from NPD demonstrate how totally unreliable amazon rankings are because they're just that - rankings. Amazon's rankings are useless in predicting actual unit sales, volumes and market share. Besides it's only one online retailer.
The Neilsen Video Scan and NPD numbers are gathered from numerous B&M and online sources (including amazon) and are raw point-of-sale numbers. Hence, they are much more reliable.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 19:41
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eatsushi
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23. January 2008 @ 17:31 |
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Now this is interesting:
http://www.cclonline.com/news/newsArticl...983&tid=cclnews
Toshiba 'leads standalone Blu-ray market'
Quote:
International electronics technology giant Toshiba has established itself as the leading manufacturer of stand-alone Blu-ray machines, according to a recent report on the state of the next-generation DVD industry.
Data compiled by the DisplaySearch company has found that when it comes to standalone Blu-ray machines, Toshiba is currently dominating the market and accounts for 64 per cent more worldwide sales than all of its competitors combined.
;)
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 23. January 2008 @ 17:32
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error5
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23. January 2008 @ 19:31 |
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Originally posted by juankerr:
In addition the NPD report above shows that:
>Toshiba is indeed on or near the bottom in hi-def revenue, despite having the largest share of sales.
>Even combos are beating HD DVD players in sales revenue
>Even if they had equal sales for all of 2007, Blu-ray made more money
>Combos still aren't the wave of the future, with roughly the same market share from the last year
>Sony no longer has a monopoly on Blu-ray standalones
@juankerr: Just to clarify, these refer to the second week of 2008 right?
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juankerr
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23. January 2008 @ 19:40 |
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Originally posted by error5:
Originally posted by juankerr:
In addition the NPD report above shows that:
>Toshiba is indeed on or near the bottom in hi-def revenue, despite having the largest share of sales.
>Even combos are beating HD DVD players in sales revenue
>Even if they had equal sales for all of 2007, Blu-ray made more money
>Combos still aren't the wave of the future, with roughly the same market share from the last year
>Sony no longer has a monopoly on Blu-ray standalones
@juankerr: Just to clarify, these refer to the second week of 2008 right?
You're right - my bad.
I'll edit the post. Here's the actual quote from the article:
Quote:
Leading brands in the category during that period were: Sony (34 percent unit share, 32 percent dollar share); Panasonic (27 percent unit share, 30 percent dollar share), Sharp (23 percent unit share, 22 percent dollar share), Toshiba (7 percent unit share, 4 percent dollar share), Samsung (6 percent unit share, 6 percent dollar share) and LG (2 percent unit share, 4 percent dollar share).
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camaro17
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23. January 2008 @ 20:20 |
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well i am not surprised because blu-ray has warner now.
Peace
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23. January 2008 @ 23:48 |
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Originally posted by hughjars:
We also can see plenty of HD DVD owners on the various forums making it clear that their HD DVD players upscale so well that if a movie is unavailable on HD DVD they will simply buy the SD DVD instead
lol, that means absolutely NOTHING. so basically Blu-ray loses out on 1 million consumers (AT BEST, certainly a much lower number) compared to the several HUNDRED MILLION potential consumers. read below as i mention the affordable players hitting the market....
Originally posted by hughjars:
Not only do HD DVD owners have a decent alternative if the movies they want are not available on HD DVD (or HD DVD imports) but this all helps ensure that Blu-ray will not be going anywhere & certainly not escaping the game console niche.
ummm when you think about the recent LEAP in sales and consider the upcoming Walmart Blu-ray player that'll retail for $249, i think Blu-ray is going to escape from your "Game Console Niche" afterall.
hopefully hardware sales don't continue with that ratio for too long as your going to be running out of arguments. lots of luck if blu-ray standalones catch up to hd-dvd numbers.
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ripxrush
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24. January 2008 @ 00:35 |
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kick someone while they r down huh? we all know BRD is kicking ass & because of the ps3 i get it wr all get it! i still own an hd dvd player & movies! oh well!
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