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Samsung questions longevity of Blu-ray format
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 5 September, 2008
According to an interview posted on Pocket-lint.co.uk, Samsung believes that the Blu-ray format will only have a 5 year life span from this point out before it is replaced by either HD downloads or a completely different physical media format.
"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics for Samsung UK said ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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juankerr
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10. September 2008 @ 23:31 |
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Originally posted by DVDBack23:
Since January I'm sure that gap has grown even larger, probably substantially larger.
Exactly right.
Blu-ray Is Booming; Wall Street Analysts Are Blooming Idiots
1st 6 months of 2008 BluRay revenue = $194 million
This a 350% increase compared to 1st 6 months of 2007
PLUS according to the article: Blu-ray sales revenue alone should triple the amount of digital downloading (SD plus HD) revenue in 2008.
2007 BluRay plus SD DVD = $24 BILLION
2007 Downloads = $118 million or $123 million (depending on the source)
It doesn't look like anyone is waiting for the next best thing. People are still buying discs.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 10. September 2008 @ 23:36
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ematrix
Junior Member
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11. September 2008 @ 03:02 |
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The thing I dislike about you guys, is that you take comments from others and place them out of context at your convenience, just to make good claims about your beloved Blu-ray. I have so far being fair and respectful of your choice and oppinions, but you don't show the same respect for others, and that's fanatism.
First of all give it a rest, people is still buying DVDs because they're cheaper, more accesible and consumers already invested on it for the past decade, but if they don't care for Blu-ray, because they don't see much of an improvement, nor want to invest in another optical disc media, deal with it.
Also I don't have to make things up, where are talking that optical discs is a dying media, that's a fact that nobody can deny, and even so you're having a hard time convincing yourselves, Blu-ray may be a new format, but it's embedded on a media doomed to obsolence.
The average consumer when from buying audio CDs to downloading music, and no matter what the record industry tries to reverse that, doesn't change the fact that CD is dead. That has everything to do with movies, because unless they came up with a new physical media to deliver movies (which doesn't involve a disc) that's the same path that movies will suffer.
Second, did I ever said that people where downloading HD movies only? Did I? I said "I'll bet that there's more people downloading HD content, than people buying BD movies at stores" HD content is not only movies, there's other stuff as well like TV episodes, yet you conveniently take my comment to make your argument about HD movies only.
I also said "If you asked 10 random people on the street if they are aware of this, it's likely that most of them would respond that not only they know about it, also preffer to download music and movies than buy the discs at stores." Legal or not, this has been happenning for years, and like or not, it will continue to happen as a lot of people will rather pay a few dollars or get it for free, than buy overpriced discs at stores.
By the end of 2007, iTunes Store alone sold 7 million movies since September 2006 (which are legal downloads) while Blu-ray sold 6 million movies since June 2006, and HD DVD sold 2.5 million movies since April 2006, meaning that iTunes Store sold more movies in less time than Blu-ray or HD-DVD did. Today iTunes it's still the preffered option for downloading movies legally, yet it's not the only one availible.
For the moment there's no 2160p format/media released commercially, it's going to be released in a few years, and you know that well to make such argument. Even so I repeatelly indicated that J6P anticipates that non-optical disc media will eventually be used to deliver movies, since optical discs are slowly less preffered by all (and not because it's looking forward for future formats such as 2160p) you have continuously and deliverately disregard that to make your allegations.
Also should we really care how much does the movie industry profit from each movie they sell? NO. We should care about how many movies they actually sell, those are the numbers that are factual and never lie. If you insist in numbers, here some from DEG...
- Less than 8 million Blu-ray and HD-DVD movies were sold within USA during 2007.
- DVD sold 1.6 billion movies within USA during 2007.
- In the U.S. during 2008, about 95% of discs sold were DVDs, while globally DVD accounts for about 99% of discs sold.
- In the U.S. during 2008, only about of 5% of discs sold were BDs, while globally the presence of BD is minimal, acounting for 1% of discs sold.
Those are the numbers that never lie, and the ones that really should matter to us; total spending numbers, profit figures, etc., those numbers are manipulative to make you believe that BD is doing much better than it actually is, because DVDs and legal downloads (like iTunes) are cheaper than BD, therefore they don't generate the same profit that BD does; no wonder why rarely such numbers are presented, specially on sponsored articles.
Honestly I'm tired on debating against stubborness and fanatism, I have better things to do with my time, than waste it with people that show no respect for other's oppinion and prefference, who manipulate numbers and distord comments, to make arguments at their own convenience, in order to inforce their choice in others.
If you aren't able to conduct a respectful and fair conversation, without attacking others just because they differ from yours, then you can continue to say whatever you want, I'll simply don't care anymore on your continuous blah, blah, blah. If anyone whishes to continue debating with them, be my guess. I'm smarter than that.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 11. September 2008 @ 03:04
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juankerr
Member
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11. September 2008 @ 07:41 |
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Wow.
That's the first time I heard someone call a $24 Billion industry a "dying media."
Just wow.
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Junior Member
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11. September 2008 @ 07:52 |
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i don't think anyone is specifically fighting for bluray here.
not even really fighting for optical disc media versus downloads.
it just the fact that disc media is still the standard,
and there isn't much that going that can truly change that.
just like i said earlier,
it will take bluray multiple more years to saturate the market;
unless one chooses to believe that won't happen at all.
when bluray started getting coverage on this and other sites
dvd's market saturation had really just begun, whether you believe it or not.
players and media alike have to drop below a reasonable cost
(versus previous forms like vhs or now dvd)
before average consumers will honestly invest in the new media form.
i can see bluray right where i saw dvd when i was first truly aware of that form.
they have the discs for rent at stores like blockbuster (now netflix too,)
but there are a limited amount of titles available.
eventually blockbuster (and other rental stores) phased out all vhs in favor of dvd.
although i don't see bluray removing dvd from the shelf like that,
i'm waiting until at least 50% of shelf space is taken up by bluray
before i declare the hd disc media market completely ubiquitous.
then you can look at downloads,
where neither the mpaa or riaa really want their members to ever go.
there is nothing in the way of a true, publisher-created service for movies.
the same goes for music, of course, but that's another thread.
the truth is that broadband internet service is far from ubiquitous;
therefore since no one puts things like download kiosks in retailers,
consumers tend to shy away from this form of media even more.
just like bluray, i think it all comes down to cost.
i pay $50/month for broadband, because that's the only worthwhile option.
some have to pay upwards of $90/month because they don't even have my option.
that plus the cost per download, and even sometimes subscription fees,
and it's obvious why consumers continue buying $10 dvd movies.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 11. September 2008 @ 07:54
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error5
Senior Member
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11. September 2008 @ 08:04 |
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Originally posted by juankerr:
Wow.
That's the first time I heard someone call a $24 Billion industry a "dying media."
Just wow.
If you make $24 Billion and you're still considered a dying industry then I guess I want to be dying too.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 11. September 2008 @ 08:16
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eatsushi
Senior Member
3 product reviews
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11. September 2008 @ 10:30 |
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@ematrix: I agree with snowlock. It's NOT a BluRay vs DVD argument. Here's my summary of your argument:
ematrix: "Discs are a dying media. People are not buying discs anymore and are waiting for the next best thing."
juankerr: "No. People spent $24 billion on discs (both SD and HD) in 2007 - much, much more than downloads. Discs are still the preferred media for movies."
Simple as that.
If people spend $24 billion on a media format I think you'll find it difficult to convince anyone that it's dying and that people are waiting for something else.
It's true that DVD sales have a slightly downward trend but BluRay is expected to take up the slack. So much so that the industry still predicts growth for 2008 - 2010 to the tune of 17%.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6571170.html?nid=3511
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oappi
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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11. September 2008 @ 12:37 |
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ematrix seems to be litle paranoid.. Most people are only writing responses to your clames that blu-ray and optical disks will die. I for one have already bought more blu-ray disks than i have bought dvd´s. Sure i never bought that mutch dvd´s because i didnt think the quality was there yet. Bd on the otherhand is enought for me to say this is like watching a movie in movie theater if i had right equipment.
With +40" tv imo dvd´s quality is not enought. Some how i think these bd trashers are same people who already bought hd-dvd and refuse to buy nearly same product and are waiting next 8-9 years for the better format. Maybe even more who knows.
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ematrix
Junior Member
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11. September 2008 @ 16:43 |
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oappi, I'm not being paranoid, but it pisses me off that they repeatly butcher other's comments and place them out of context, so they can disregard anybody else oppinion that differs from theirs. You preffer Blu-ray, I'm glad for you and I respect that, and I appreciate the least you can do is show the same respect for those that don't feel the same. That's why I'm replying to you, and you alone.
I can respect that you believe that a more than 40" screen isn't enough for DVD, even so you admited haven't tried upscaled DVD, which I invite you to do so, it probally change your perception about it; I'm only asking for you to show me the same respect, when I believe that a more than 40" screen for DVD is good enough for me... the problem is that not all are willing to show the same respect.
I mean, did I ever said in a full sentence "Discs are a dying media. People are not buying discs anymore and are waiting for the next best thing."? Did I ever said that people are not buying discs anymore? Did I? NO. But some choose to repeately substract pieces from several sentences and thoughts, add stuff I never said, just to make such a claim out of context. That pisses me off because it's disrespecful to other's oppinions.
This has became a debate about BD against any present and future format and media, after all this all started with the article itself questioning the longevity of BD format. The problem is that those how support Blu-ray are so eager to see it succeed, that inmediately rally around others to disregard their prefferences, and distord comments and thoughts at their own convenience, even to the point to act like high school bullies... do you think that's really necessary?
As for discs being a dying media, allow me to explain what I meant... just as Mr. Andy Griffiths from Samsung indicated, eventually DVD (and possibly BD as well) will suffer the same faith that CD, which already is a dead duck in the water. It may take 5 years, if they're lucky may take a decade, but eventually will happen, because other non-optical disc storage media have surfaced, which people are already consuming, and have the potencial for delivering movies in the following years.
Yet what's been helping DVD survive this, is that people are still consuming DVDs because as mentioned, it has been a standart media and movie format for several years now, it's inexpensive, accesible, and consumers already invested on it, I'm not denying that.
That's why today it's much easier to sell DVD movies, when it has been around for a decade, when people already invested in the equipment and even own large movie collections, after all DVD is the one consumers have spent for 24 billion dollars annually (consumers only spent 260 million dollars for HD-DVD and BD movies in 2007)
But as far as selling BD movies, some people simply don't see the benefit from reinvesting in another optical disc format, while other potencial options are surfacing, which could deliver movies in the following years. If you preffer BD all I'm asking is for you to respect that others are preffering other options.
And people will continue to consume DVD until other media becames as inexpensive and accesible, just like happen with CD. I'm not denying neither that if prices for BD hardware and media went down substancially, could help the average consumer accept and consume BD easier than it's happening now.
But by the time BD has a chance to catch up with DVD, non-optical media will be much cheaper and more accesible than they're today, which will make it harder for BD to sell their products to the public. Even today as for investing in new optical disc media, even if it's only for storage purposes, people are preffering to invest on USB flash cards and HDD, rather than invest in BD discs, which ain't a standart media/format yet.
If anybody expresses their support for BD, that's fine by me and I'll respect that, all I'm asking them to show the same respect for other's oppinions and prefferences; if they're going to question and disregard every single thing that doesn't stand for their beloved BD, then it's only fair that others do the same; but it's really neccesary for them to attack and insult others, to distord and manipulate their comments at their convenience? NO.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 11. September 2008 @ 22:54
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juankerr
Member
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12. September 2008 @ 03:41 |
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Originally posted by eatsushi:
@ematrix: I agree with snowlock. It's NOT a BluRay vs DVD argument. Here's my summary of your argument:
ematrix: "Discs are a dying media. People are not buying discs anymore and are waiting for the next best thing."
juankerr: "No. People spent $24 billion on discs (both SD and HD) in 2007 - much, much more than downloads. Discs are still the preferred media for movies."
Simple as that.
If people spend $24 billion on a media format I think you'll find it difficult to convince anyone that it's dying and that people are waiting for something else.
It's true that DVD sales have a slightly downward trend but BluRay is expected to take up the slack. So much so that the industry still predicts growth for 2008 - 2010 to the tune of 17%.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6...id=3511
QFT and agreed 100%.
ematrix's comments sound like an obituary for anything that's on a shiny silver disc. There's no other way to interpret his comments despite his protestations.
Oh, BTW - here's another report about the "dying media."
Report: DVD, Blu-ray Reign in Western Europe
Quote:
Packaged media sales of DVD and Blu-ray movies in Western Europe are expected to generate $14.8 billion in revenue this year, compared to $500 million for electronic sellthrough, according to a new report.
London-based Futuresource Consulting said repromotion of DVD movies three-to-four months after their initial release and continued consumer demand for TV DVD fare are driving packaged media sales. Blockbuster titles released on Blu-ray are contributing as well.
$14.8 BILLION just for Western Europe this year.
I guess the optical disc is in big, big trouble.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 12. September 2008 @ 03:56
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ematrix
Junior Member
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12. September 2008 @ 20:19 |
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DVD itself is the one making billions of dollars annually, it doesn't need BD to achieve such figures, as its contribution are minimal, and as I said before the numbers that count are how many DVD and BD movies are sold, not how much the movie studios profit from selling them.
BD is the one in trouble now, not DVD, and in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing, as I have explained preciselly what I meant by "dying media" if you choose to disregard that so you can continue to make your claims, I frankly don't care anymore, I know there's people that share my oppinion.
You want to buy and support BD, be my guess. Others rather skip BD alltogether and go for the next format/media, that's our choice and we're free to do so at our convenience. If you have a hard time accepting this, that's your problem, not mine.
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error5
Senior Member
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12. September 2008 @ 20:48 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing,
There you go folks.
An official prediction from ematrix.
2007 - a $24 billion industry
2011 - 2012 - "existence will be difficult"
We need to mark our calendars for the official death watch of the 12cm video disc.
I hope they let us know where to send the flowers because that's one funeral that I'd like to attend.
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Senior Member
4 product reviews
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12. September 2008 @ 23:31 |
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Jesus, what the hell. longest argument ever on a non-related issue Award Goes to....(Name Goes Here)
Who gives a flipping Monkey's Wazoo about what Samsung thinks.
There wrong there will always be a need for Optical Disc based Medium, 4 Generations of Optical Media just doesn't fall off the map cause samsung says so.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaserDisc
Compact-Disc
DVD
Blue-Ray
Are your 4 Generations.
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ematrix
Junior Member
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13. September 2008 @ 05:20 |
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Whatever error5, your comments only confirms what I have been saying, not only you're disrespectful to others, you'll do whatever you can to disregard anything else that threathens your worshipped Blu-ray.
I have no need to make predictions, when I'm only indicating the obvious, which the big BD supporters are beginning to admit, that BD is a hard cookie to sell, and it won't be around as much as you wish for; not like those hilarious Sony "predictions" that BD will outcome DVD by 2009-2012, when we're now by the end of 2008, and BD presence in US in minimal, and insignificant globally... 3 years to reach global mass market? It's not possible.
Yet at least i don't have to resort to cinism or inmature comments to defend myself, neither i'm not stubborn like to you to not recognize the big picture of global market consumption, present and future possibilities, and the trend they follow. I have done more than enough to explain myself and my view in the matter, and I know others feel and think the same as I do, if you can't accept nor respect it, too bad for you.
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error5
Senior Member
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13. September 2008 @ 08:47 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
Whatever error5, your comments only confirms what I have been saying, not only you're disrespectful to others, you'll do whatever you can to disregard anything else that threathens your worshipped Blu-ray.
Show me exactly where we were disrespectful to you as a person.
All we did was disagree with your comments. This is a place for public discussion. If you cannot stand the fact that someone else has viewpoints that differ from yours then I suggest that you don't post at all.
We have put forward a dissenting opinion supported by links, marketing data and actual dollar sales figures. All you have done is make blanket statements that have no basis in fact. At least post some links that support your contention that "in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing" and that "discs are a dying media."
Quote:
I have no need to make predictions, when I'm only indicating the obvious, which the big BD supporters are beginning to admit, that BD is a hard cookie to sell, and it won't be around as much as you wish for; not like those hilarious Sony "predictions" that BD will outcome DVD by 2009-2012, when we're now by the end of 2008, and BD presence in US in minimal, and insignificant globally... 3 years to reach global mass market? It's not possible.
You obviously don't have any experience in the corporate/marketing world. Large corporations always rely on marketing trends and predictions to help guide their strategy. They pay big bucks to marketing analysts to come up with studies that show trends for the future.
No one disagrees with the fact that BluRay is a hard sell but as you paint a gloomy picture, others prefer to look to the future with optimism. You are already writing off the format but others prefer to think otherwise.
Oh BTW here's another link:
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/...hp?startid=2#/4
Week ending 9/7/08 - Top 20 titles:
DVD = 88% - Total Sales down 10.56%
BluRay = 12% - Total Sales UP 16.28% thanks to Transformers.
The 4th quarter should show more of the same as the summer blockbusters get released and special pricing deals crop up.
Quote:
Yet at least i don't have to resort to cinism or inmature comments to defend myself, neither i'm not stubborn like to you to not recognize the big picture of global market consumption, present and future possibilities, and the trend they follow. I have done more than enough to explain myself and my view in the matter, and I know others feel and think the same as I do, if you can't accept nor respect it, too bad for you.
Well welcome to the world of internet discussion groups - where feelings can and do get hurt. LOL! If you're too sensitive to see anyone disagree with you in a condescending way then don't post at all. Remember, we don't know you personally so nothing is personal. We don't dislike or disrespect you as a person. We just disagree with your point of view and we can express our disagreement within the rules of the forum.
It's a fact of life that there's always someone out there who will have a differing opinion from you. The important thing to remember is that in a free country he has the right to express his opinion no matter how much it irritates you. If you're too stubborn to accept that then too bad for you.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13. September 2008 @ 08:56
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ematrix
Junior Member
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13. September 2008 @ 19:14 |
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Of course you have every right to disagree with my viewpoint, but if you can't stand that others don't share your oppinion, that you must be disrespectful when you take other comments and mannipulate them at your convenience, which you have done repeatelly, and when you aren't able to repute something, you resort to cinism and inmature comments in order to disregard it, then by all means don't post at all.
Indeed you have put forward a dissenting opinion supported by links, marketing data and actual dollar sales figures. But the source and intent of such figures is 100% inquestionable? Should we rely on them blindly? As I said before, the numbers that matter is how many DVD and BD discs are sold, not how much consumers spent on them, because consumers spent slighty, even largely more, on BD movies than they do on DVD movies, therefore those numbers are misleading... but let's play it your way.
You're the one that obviously don't want to believe that big corporations like Sony, is paying bic bucks to tech and marketing analysts to come up with studies and predictions that show misleading trends for a bright and positive BD future, in order to mislead consumers that they should support BD and should buy it now.
As for "in a few years all optical discs will have a hard time existing" and that "discs are a dying media." even you can't deny that non-optical disc media are rising and more consumers everyday are buying them, even more than BD, and that they have the potencial of being use to deliver movies in the future, but if you have a hard time accepting this, read this...
Quote:
SanDisk took the top spot among global vendors in the $11.5 billion memory card and USB flash drive (UFD) market last year, according to DRAMeXchange.
SanDisk posted $2.93 billion in sales, followed by Sony with $1.73 billion. Coming in third at $1.13 billion is Kingston. U.S. channel brand PNY took the fourth place with $715 million sales. Moreover, Taiwan's Transcend secured the top-five position with sales of $619 million.
Top players
DRAMeXchange analysts indicate that SanDisk, with the capacity backup from the Toshiba JV, recorded shipments of its microSD card soared by 128 percent y-on-y in fiscal year 2007, generating an equivalent sales of $1.4 billion. The firm also achieved a good sales record of $1 billion in SD and CF card markets?the two market segments mainly dominated by digital camera. In the UFD market, SanDisk hit a 54 percent y-on-y shipment growth, generating sales of $500 million. SanDisk successfully took the lead in both memory card and UFD markets in terms of sales in FY07.
Sony is known to create its proprietary memory card standard, Memory Stick, for its own-brand Cyber-shot cameras and Sony Ericsson handsets. Owing to its foothold in respective segments (Cyber-shot ranks second and SonyEricsson ranks as top five), it generated a sales amount of over $1.7 billion from both Memory Stick and UFD on a relative high ASP than other memory card/UFD.
According to the report, number one DRAM module maker Kingston uses its established global connections to foster its NAND flash memory sales over recent years. Its sales scale of over $500 million in UFD market in 2007 has allowed it to reach a level similar to SanDisk.
DRAMeXchange analysts also indicates that being one of the top five memory card and UFD makers in 2007, Transcend was the only player from Taiwan. Its year-long strategic deployment and channeling in branded sales allowed the synergy of brandname to start emerging since 2006. This emergence is evident in its growing market share in Europe, India and China. By including its success sales record from Japan, it achieved a sales amount of $619 million from memory card and UFD in 2007.
According to the memory card and UFD sales from the above vendors, SanDisk, Kingston and PNY are the three top players. Sony also takes a heavy role in the market, not only because of its proprietary memory card standard, but also its influence in both digital camera and handset markets.
As for Taiwan vendors, DRAMeXchange analysts believe that their influence is set to grow further amid the aggressive deployments in emerging markets and channels over the next few years.
http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800522918_499486_NT_7b64b5b2.HTM
From figures provided by the Hollywood-based trade group DEG with input from all major motion picture studios...
- Consumers spent $375 million worldwide on BD and HD-DVD movies during 2007, from which U.S. consumers alone spent $260 million on high definition discs, while consumers in the rest of the world spent $115 million on HD discs.
- Consumers spent close to $50 billion worldwide on DVD movies during 2007, from which U.S. consumers alone spent $23.4 billion on DVD discs, while consumers in the rest of the world spent $26 billion on DVD discs.
My point is that who shows today grander potencial and preferrence among consumers, not only as media for storing information, but as possible means to deliver movies in the following years... BD, who's strugeling to reach $1 billion spending worldwide annually, or memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) how are already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and whose consumption is rising among consumers everyday.
You can argue about memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) current capacities and prices against BD discs, and I'm not going to dispute that, but regardless of that, people are consuming them more than BD discs, and that capacities will be larger and prices will be lower, to suit the needs and accesability that any J6P requires, even you can't deny that memory cards and USB flash drives (UFD) are showing a more promising future than BD discs.
Oh BTW if you're going to put some link, at least be fair enough to present the hole picture and not choose what's convenient to you, in order to mislead others to believe that BD is doing well, when it's not... because when you're choosing to put just one week for DVD/BD sales, but neglect to mention which has the case in all previous weeks, that's misleading; just for example:
For the week ending 31st August 2008, here are the stats:
Percentage of Top 20 titles by volume:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 6% vs 94%
All sales by volume (Percentage of Total Sales):
Blu-ray sales up 28.94% compared to last week, total spending in the week: $9.11 million (6.83%)
DVD sales up 3.18% compared to last week, total spending in the week: $124.23 million (93.17%)
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=1
It's I how is LOL! If you can't stand that others differ to your viewpoint, and stubborn enough to recognize other prefferences and possibilities, in order to act like you have been doing, then by all means don't post at all.
Everybody has the right to invest their time and money in what they feel suits best their needs; if you feel that BD works for you, good for you and I respect that, if I feel that DVD works for me and choose to wait for something else in the future, good for me and accept that, rather than insist I must buy BD just because you and big cows like Sony say we should.
Becuase it's lame that you must resort to cinism and misleading information, in order to make a claim that's not 100% irrefutable. I'm not saying you shouldn't be true to your believes, for sure I am, but at least try to be respectful and fair to other's oppinions, even recognize when there's truth and validity in their claims, I for one have tried my best to do so, but when you conveniently distort and manipulate information and oppinions, that's a cheap way to state your claims.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13. September 2008 @ 19:18
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Senior Member
4 product reviews
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13. September 2008 @ 20:11 |
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Yawn...Still arguing god, ya could give it a rest.
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varnull
Suspended permanently
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13. September 2008 @ 20:41 |
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Always happens when the paid trolls meet their match I'm afraid.
Some nice figures there from ematrix.. supporting what we have been saying all along.. the spinning disk, like the elcasette and the umd are end date technology which will be replaced as prices of other non optical media falls.
..funny comment. the first pc I had with a cd-rom drive only had a 120MB hdd which cost £690 to get another to double the hdd space. I was employed in a hi-fi shop when the first cd players were released.. at £1200 we sold none, (that was about half what I earned in a year) and they didn't sound any better than the existing technology at half the price... the dvd didn't kill off the vcr until the dvd recorder became a viable alternative. You may not be able to buy new films on tape, but you can still buy blank tapes.. and as for vinyl records..those big extinct black plastic things.. have a look in HMV sometime ;)
Blu is like dvd-audio.. niche market for the gadget heads with money to burn who just have to have everything. Same went for cd for at least the first 5 years if not more. It was some time in the 90's that things stopped being released on both formats. More then 10 years to get the market penetration required to make it not economic suicide to release on one format only.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13. September 2008 @ 20:42
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error5
Senior Member
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13. September 2008 @ 21:38 |
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For each article you quote there's another that I can quote too:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/columns/going-blu-suburbia-13354
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A study from ABI Research found 75% of respondents planned on buying a Blu-ray player by 2009.
Also, an In-Stat survey reiterated the pull of packaged media, with more than half of respondents saying they preferred hard goods when buying movies or TV shows. Even younger viewers in the study preferred packaged media, with its cover art and extras.
?That bodes well for Blu-ray,? In-Stat analyst Gerry Kaufhold said.
Blu-ray disc unit sales in the first half of 2008 were up 340% from the first six months of 2007, according to Nielsen VideoScan data. And, looking at our weekly numbers since then, Blu-ray seems to be gaining momentum on a week-by-week basis as well.
Driving to work this week, I heard a commercial for Dish Network's ?TurboHD,? which touted 1080p resolution ?as good as Blu-ray.? That's not a bad thing. When big competitors start comparing themselves to Blu-ray, you know it's on its way to success.
When BluRay can sell $9 - 10 million each week during the 1st 3 quarters they should easily pass their goal of $750 million to $1 billion this year. This is true since 50% or more of disc sales usually happen during the 4th quarter as this is the time when the summer blockbusters are released and special holiday pricing deals kick in.
It's illogical to compare the flash memory market to BD since they're two totally different things. One is a movie distribution medium and the other is used for computer data storage, digital cameras, etc. Get back to me when movies are distributed on flash.
Non optical media could be viable in the future but people will not just abandon their disc players that easily. For example, set-top boxes that play flash media (especially if you want 2160p) will come at premium. If you're looking at PC based playback then don't expect J6P to instantly jump on the bandwagon since now everyone has the tech savvy to connect their PC to their television. J6P will want something as simple as (1) insert in the media then (2) press play.
The infrastructure for disc replication is already there. OTOH they will have to find a way to manufacture 30 - 50 Gig flash memory cheaply and find a way to transfer that much data to each and every unit in a timely manner. A disc replicator can manufacture 1 SD DVD in 2 seconds and 1 BD disc in 6 seconds. Do you know how long it takes to transfer 30 to 50 Gigs of data to a memory card?
Finally, I think the main obstacle for non optical media is the content provider. Good luck trying to convince the movie studios to abandon a $24 billion a year industry and invest in new technology.
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juankerr
Member
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13. September 2008 @ 22:01 |
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This is the reason why Samsung is is looking forward to non-optical media:
They're trying to buy Sandisk.
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The world's largest maker of flash memory cards for digital cameras jumped 31 percent, or 4.18 points, Friday on rumors that Samsung would buy the company.
This follows a recent spate of rumors including one that said Seagate was interested in SanDisk. While Samsung already makes flash memory and is a leader in the emerging solid state drive market, Seagate does not sell SSDs and is looking to get into the market.
Samsung doesn't need SanDisk to grow; the South Korean company is already the world's largest supplier of flash memory chips, with Toshiba a distant second.
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Originally posted by error5:
Do you know how long it takes to transfer 30 to 50 Gigs of data to a memory card?
Come on error5. Don't you realize that 2160p would probably require twice that amount of storage?
Originally posted by error5:
This is true since 50% or more of disc sales usually happen during the 4th quarter as this is the time when the summer blockbusters are released and special holiday pricing deals kick in.
I thought the number from Kosty was 60% of total sales in Q4. Anyway, I think Ironman and TDK should push the numbers close to and even above 12% BD share.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 13. September 2008 @ 22:28
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dblbogey7
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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14. September 2008 @ 00:21 |
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Originally posted by juankerr:
I think Ironman and TDK should push the numbers close to and even above 12% BD share.
error5 & juankerr: I think the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen.
Consider this: The profit margin for DVD is about $7 - $10 per unit while the profit margin for BD is roughly $14 - $20 per unit. So in terms of revenue, BD could overtake DVD when it reaches 34 to 35 percent of sales - not 51%.
BD could actually be more profitable even if it's being outsold by DVD 2:1.
Guess what number the studios are actually looking at: numbers sold or actual dollar revenue.
Granted, there are other factors to consider such as the declining costs of BD authoring and replication but you do get my point, right? It's just more complicated than just weekly head to head numbers.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. September 2008 @ 00:22
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Senior Member
4 product reviews
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14. September 2008 @ 01:41 |
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Originally posted by varnull:
Always happens when the paid trolls meet their match I'm afraid.
Some nice figures there from ematrix.. supporting what we have been saying all along.. the spinning disk, like the elcasette and the umd are end date technology which will be replaced as prices of other non optical media falls.
..funny comment. the first pc I had with a cd-rom drive only had a 120MB hdd which cost £690 to get another to double the hdd space. I was employed in a hi-fi shop when the first cd players were released.. at £1200 we sold none, (that was about half what I earned in a year) and they didn't sound any better than the existing technology at half the price... the dvd didn't kill off the vcr until the dvd recorder became a viable alternative. You may not be able to buy new films on tape, but you can still buy blank tapes.. and as for vinyl records..those big extinct black plastic things.. have a look in HMV sometime ;)
Blu is like dvd-audio.. niche market for the gadget heads with money to burn who just have to have everything. Same went for cd for at least the first 5 years if not more. It was some time in the 90's that things stopped being released on both formats. More then 10 years to get the market penetration required to make it not economic suicide to release on one format only.
b-b-but i like my spinney disk thing, with a class 2 type laser that may blind you if you stare directly into it...
granted Disc technology will eventually die just like tape based medium did, but not now not even 10 years from now. its a niche that will keep spinning and cause radiation hazards for many years to come
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ematrix
Junior Member
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14. September 2008 @ 10:18 |
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First of all, thanks varnull. I know they're others than share my viewpoint, yet I appreciate your comments and I completely agree with you, and certanly helps to show that I'm not the only that feels and thinks this way, thanks.
error5, you're the one that asked me to support my viewpoint, but when i do so, you inmediatelly rush to disregard it, and worst of all with a doubtful study... doesn't that confirms what I have been saying? I want to believe that people are smarter to believe blindly on a study of doubtful origin and results, at least I'm; unless you can provide solid proof of the validity of such study, then is misleading and manipulative... or do you still believe that BD will outcome DVD by 2009, like alleged "studies" claimed a while ago?
How can you compare BD, even if it reaches $1 billion spending in US, or $1.5 billion worldwide this year, when DVD reaches $20 billion spending in USA, or $50 billion worldwide. Yet when the memory cards and USB flash drives market is already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and still rising, it's not that farfedge that they could be potencially used to deliver movies.
If the past years have showed us, is the movie studios is beginning to learn, the hard way in most cases, that they better explore other possibilities; that's why they're supporting online movie stores like iTunes, adding Digital Copies to DVD and BD releases, etc. I don't think will be long before they notice a growing $10 billion a year worldwide memory cards and USB flash drives industry.
As others and I have pointed out, optical discs will eventually die, not now of course, but it's possible that in 5-10 years will happen, the reasons and circunstances why this will happen have been explained before. DVD has nothing to worry about, it has been with us for 11 years and will continue to be around while it's possible; on the contrary BD is the one that has a lot to worry about.
Regardless of our differences in the past, I'm respectful and fair enough to recognize some validity and truth in part of your past comments... I won't deny that at this moment there aren't movies distributed on USB flash cards, but at least there's the possibility that could change in a few years, specially with present global market trends.
I'm not denying that a set-top box that plays USB flash media will be expensive at first, but such scenario will be no different from the one early adopters endured while purchasing BD players. Also be sure that they will make playing movies from USB flash media as easily as plug and play, so that any J6P can handle.
Also let me ratify that my expectancies for 2160p is that most likely USB flash media or other non-optical disc media will be used to deliver movies at such resolution, not because I personally preffer 2160p over 1080p... I just don't share your same interest in spending my money on another optical disc.
Also in the following years, not only the costs to manufacture large USB flash media will be much cheaper and faster than they're now, but their GB capacities will be grander, and their transfer data rate will be faster as well, which will widen the possibility that they could be used to deliver movies commercially... just consider that in 2 years, they went for 4-8 GB to 32-64 GB capacities.
I agree that the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen or HMR, after all they only reflect how much people spent each week on discs, where BD percentages have been fluctuating from 5% to 8% weekly, but they don't reflect how many DVD and BD discs were sold, which is the number that should matter to us.
If you analyse closer the latest numbers provided by Nielsen and HMR, you'll notice that as for consumers spending on discs last week, indeed Blu-ray reached 12% of the Top 20 titles, but as for total disc sales (including of course the Top 20 titles) it actually reached 8.71% of total consumers spending in the same week (only 1.88% increase from the previous week)
If you consider that DVD movies, despite rebates and discounts, are in most cases slighty to largely cheaper than BD movies, specially when it comes to catalog titles, then the weekly percentages provided by Nielsen and HMR are inacurate, as they only provide how much consumers spent of BD and DVD discs, not how many BD and DVD discs consumers actually bought nor how much they spent on each disc.
It's like saying that 10 guys go in a store, 9 of them buys a $10 DVD movie each, while 1 buys one $20 BD movie; at the end of the day BD will account for 10% of total discs sold, but will claim that accounts for 18.18% of total consumer spending. Both figures are correct, but this is a simple example of how percentages could easily mislead you.
Therefore it may be possible that the actual percentage of BD discs sold weekly, could be actually lower than the percentage provided by Nielsen and HMR on consumer spending for BD discs... and I enphasize it may possible, because they aren't providing all the information; in the contrary if they did, then we could know exactly how BD is doing against DVD, even an average spending of each BD and DVD disc.
Remember: "Numbers don't lie. The people that manipulates them does"
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. September 2008 @ 11:00
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juankerr
Member
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14. September 2008 @ 10:55 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
error5, first of all you're the one that asked me to support my viewpoint with solid proof, but when i do so, you inmediatelly rush to disregard it, and worst of all with a sponsored study... doesn't that confirms what I have been saying?
You obviously didn't get the point. For one study that says one thing - there's another can say the exact opposite. Plus - all studies are sponsored one way or another. Peeople pay to get the studies done or they pay to get copies of the study results. No one does studies for free.
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I want to believe that people are smarter to believe blindly on a study of doubtful origin and results, at least I'm; unless you can provide solid proof of the validity of such study, then is misleading and manipulative... or do you still believe that BD will outcome DVD by 2009, like they claimed a while ago?
The studies are out there. You can choose to believe them or don't. BTW, stop misquoting: No one said that Bluray will outsell (not outcome) DVD by 2009. Every study that i've seen so far has predicted good things for Bluray and will achieve parity by 2011 to 2012 in terms of revenue - like this one from futuresource.com:
http://www.arcadiasbest.com/files/u1/2008-08_DVD-v-Blu-ray.jpg
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Yet when the memory cards and USB flash drives market is already a $10 billion worldwide industry annually, and still rising, it's not that farfedge that they potencially could be used to deliver movies.
Show me a business or technological model that makes it profitable to distribute a 30 to 50 GB movie on a 30 - 50 gig flash drive/card. Until then all this is vaporware. (Sorry to correct your spelling but it's "farfetched" not "farfedge.")
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As others and I have pointed out, optical discs will eventually die, not now of course, but it's possible that in 5-10 years will happen, the reasons and circunstances why this will happen have been explained before, even with proof to support it.
I didn't see the proof that discs are going to die out in 5 to 10 years. Please post the proof agaain.
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DVD has nothing to worry about, it has been with us for 11 years and will continue to be around while it's possible; on the contrary BD is the one that has a lot to worry about.
Sorry but if you're talking about the demise of the disc then you'll have to include DVD as well. If you're looking at non-optical media then you have to include both in the equation. remember that optical media a $24 billion a year industry and is deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche.
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just consider that in 2 years, they went for 4-8 GB to 32-64 GB capacities.
Look at the prices though. The cheapest 16GB SDHC card I could find was about $50. if you're talking about 2160p video you'll probably need anywhere from 75 to 100 GB per movie.
Like I said - show me a technological model that makes it profitable to distribute a 2160p movie on a 75GB flash drive. Otherwise it's all vaporware at this time.
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I agree that the picture is more complicated than just the weekly percentages given by Nielsen or HMR, after all they only reflect how much people spent each week on discs, where BD percentages have been fluctuating from 5% to 8% weekly, but they don't reflect how many DVD and BD discs were sold, which is the number that should matter to us.
If you want actual number of movies sold then go to the-numbers.com. You can make calculations from them baased on the Nielsens.
However, the actual numbers sold isn't what matters to the studios distributing the movies. It's how much they make. Like dblbogey7 pointed out - even if Bluray sold only 35 percent of the volume of DVD's they could still be more profitable due to the higher margin per disc. That's what matters to those who release the movies.
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If you analyse closer the latest numbers provided by Nielsen and HMR, you'll notice that as for consumers spending on discs last week, indeed Blu-ray reached 12% of the Top 20 titles, but as for total disc sales (including of course the Top 20 titles) it actually reached 8.71% of total consumers spending in the same week (only 1.88% increase from the previous week)
Still this is a 340 percent increase from last year's 1st 6 months. That type of growth never goes unnoticed by those in the industry.
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If you consider that DVD movies, despite rebates and discounts, are in most cases slighty to largely cheaper than BD movies, specially when it comes to catalog titles, then the weekly percentages provided by Nielsen and HMR are inacurate, as they only provide how much consumers spent of BD and DVD discs, not how many BD and DVD discs consumers actually bought.
Like I said - what matters to the industry and to the longevity of a format is the dollar amount made. If a format doesn't make money then it's doomed. If it continues to make money like BD then you can expect it to survive.
The DVD market is at the point of saturation. Why do you think we see $5 bargain bins at Walmart?
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It's like saying that 10 guys go in a store, 9 of them buys a $10 DVD movie each, while 1 buys one $20 BD movie; at the end of the day BD will account for 10% of total discs sold, but will claim that accounts for 18.18% of total consumer spending. Both figures are correct, but this is a simple example of how percentages could easily mislead you.
It's not misleading. Like I said it's the dollar amount that matters to the industry - not the number of units sold. DVD is a lower profit margin product so the industry looks to BD.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. September 2008 @ 10:59
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ematrix
Junior Member
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14. September 2008 @ 13:05 |
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I provided a real marketing study that shows actual numbers for memory cards and USB flash drives, yet you want to repute that with a survey with alleged consumer prefferences of doubtful origin and results? Damn right I choose not to believe.
So now I'm misquoting? Didn't Mr. Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, made the absurd claim early 2007, that by the end of 2009, the BDA planned to have BD replacing DVD entirely, and I quote "Within three years it will just be Blu-ray"? Hell, it was widely discussed here at the forum.
Come on, a lot of people read and LOL about it, I mean sure looks you could use some laughs. Yet I don't like people insinuating that I'm lying. By the way, you don't like misquoting? Then why the hell you do it? You guys have been misquoting me all along at your convenience.
So now you know that BD can't outsell DVD by the number of discs each sells, you want to rely on sales revenue in order to do so... how do think that's good for consumers? Because either to achieve high revenues from BD, they must keep prices high, or they lower them to rival those for DVD, which will result in lower revenues and slower growth; also how do they expect to profit higher from BD, which costs more to manufacture than DVD?
But so far BD isn't making a lot of money, maybe this will change in a few years, but also if you believe that growing markets never goes unnoticed by those in the industry, I'm sure that they'll eventually notice the growing $10 billion memory card and USB flash media industry; for BD's sake, he better grow fast before they do.
Funny that you reffer to DVD as lower profit margin product when is the $24 billion a year industry by itself, BD hasn't earned yet the right to call itself a billion dollar industry, nor it's deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche; and yes, both discs have been included in the demise of optical discs, the difference is that when this happens, DVD would have lived long enough and achieved all its goals, BD will fall short on both.
However, as for how much they make from discs sold what matters to the studios distributing the movies... why should we care? When did we became the devil's advocates to look out what's best for the movie studios? Do they always have the consumer in their best interest? Tell that to those HD-DVD's early adopters. Tell that to those how pay a highly anticipated film that turns out to be a crappy movie.
As for the rest, by all means read what I said instead of rushing to reply, I specifically said future possibilities, and yes in a few years it's going to be possible and profitable for movie studios to deliver movies on non-optical disc media.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. September 2008 @ 13:50
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juankerr
Member
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14. September 2008 @ 13:44 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
I provided a real marketing study that shows actual numbers for memory cards and USB flash drives, yet you want to repute that with a survey with alleged consumer prefferences of doubtful origin and results? Damn right I choose not to believe.
Like I said it's illogical to show a marketing study on flash drives since they aren't used for movie distribution. I repeat, show me the technological and business model that says 2160p HD movies at 75 GB or more are feasible to distribute thru flash media. You have failed to do so since it's what we call vaporware.
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So now I'm misquoting? Didn't they made the absurd prediction months ago, allegedly based in a study, that BD will outsell DVD by 2009? Come on, a lot of people read and LOL about it, I mean sure looks you could use some laughs.
On the contrary, the expectations we have been reading lately are quite within reach. By the end of 2008 they expect a 7 - 8% market share with $750M to $1B revenue. Just right on target don't you think?
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So now you know that BD can't outsell DVD by the number of discs each sells, you want to rely on sales revenue in order to do so... how do think that's good for consumers?
I have bad news for you ematrix. It doesn't matter if it's good for the consumer or not. What matters in the business world is profit and right now DVD is a low profit margin product compared to BD.
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I'm sure that they'll eventually notice the growing $10 billion memory card and USB flash media industry; for BD's sake, he better grow fast before they do.
So who do you think will be the one's developing the playback machines for these flash media?
It's the same usual suspects: Sony, Panasonic/Matsushita, Pioneer, Philips, Toshiba, Samsung etc. These are companies that already have a stake in optical discs.
Plus, who do you think will be providing the content for these flash movies?
It's the same usual gang of movie studios that right now are making money off discs.
They will need initial R&D and later new manufacturing infrastructure just to implement a new format meaning billions in initial outlay which needs to be recouped. Then comes marketing the new format to the public - a consumer market that has discs already deeply entrenched as a movie medium.
Bottom line, they will have to convince the general public to abandon discs in favor of some other non-optical media. The first players will probably have the high-end pricing that we see today - $1000 or more. This movies will need capacities of 75 GB or more and will likely cost at least $40 to $50 a title. Plus the 2160p/2K/4K displays needed to take advantage of these movies will also have high-end pricing - >$10,000 or more depending on size.
By the time these prices come down to J6P levels you will already see full-featured BD players for $50 or less, bargain bin BD movies for $5 and larger 1080p HDTV's at $500 or less.
Any new non-optical format will have an enormous task ahead of it.
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Funny that you reffer to DVD as lower profit margin product when is the $24 billion a year industry by itself, BD hasn't earned yet the right to call itself a billion dollar industry, nor it's deeply entrenched in the consumer psyche
Yes, it's a $24 billion industry that will not just vanish just because some of you think that discs are on their way out.
If BD can make it's projected revenue of $750 to $1B this year then I think it could be rightfully called a billion dollar industry by the end of 2009. Right now, BD is still on it's way to achieving it's goals for this year.
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However, as for how much they make from discs sold what matters to the studios distributing the movies... why should we care?
See the above bad news comment. The consumer has no voice in all of this. The sooner you realize that profitability is the ultimate goal of the industry, the clearer you'll see the picture.
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I specifically said future possibilities, and yes in a few years it's going to be possible and profitable for movie studios to deliver movies on non-optical disc media.
The fact remains that it's still vaporware at this point.
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