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I really think that dual-layer DVDR's are going to take off in a big way. Consider the market forces involved. Virtually 1:1 movie backups? There's going to be an awful lot of demand pushing hardware and media prices down.
I can see blu-ray being a very slow starter. It will mean more hardware upgrades for your PC. Not just a new reader/writer, but your hard drive also (120GB will hold fewer than 5 blu-ray discs).
I'm also guessing that blu-ray recording speeds are going to top-out at somewhere over the 40MB/sec mark (16X DVD is about 20MB/s, assume blu-ray pit-length is at least half of DVD), meaning you'll be wanting a well-tuned machine to host your blu-ray recorder.
Personally, I'd be looking to use a SCSI system in a blu-ray authoring machine. ATA/SATA would work, but would be prone to interruptions from user activity (loading IE, opening an email) with inevitable buffer underruns. Of course, a 'burn-proof' like system would safeguard your recording, but we all know that burn-proof activation can introduce its own errors*.
DVD-R (dual and single layer) is going to be around for a very long time. We've got 16X recorders to look forward to, dye improvements, cheaper consumer video recorders, cheaper portable players and perhaps even slight increases in capacity.
* I copied a DVD from a network shared DVD-ROM, which unfortunately could not quite keep up with 4X reading (until about 60%). The pretty pattern introduced onto the recording by the constant activation of the burn-proof system is quite interesting...
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Anyone seen my bitch?
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 19. October 2003 @ 12:36
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