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Analyst predicts beginning of the end for DVD
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 27 December, 2007
Michael Nathanson, analyst for Bernstein Research, is predicting the demise of the DVD as the dominant vehicle for consumer video. His prediction comes as DVD sales are down more than 4% for the year according to data from Nielsen VideoScan. Nathanson believes retailers will soon start reducing shelf space dedicated to DVDs as a vacuum is created which will need to be filled by the winner ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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nobrainer
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27. December 2007 @ 04:26 |
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Remember to consume and spend you hard earned monies on every increasingly rubbish media that the mafia market to us as the next best thing and keep these businesses afloat ppl.
i predict that hi-def content sales to stink because they cost twice as much as dvd's for the same crappy film of poor acting and a half asses script!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 27. December 2007 @ 04:27
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maryjayne
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27. December 2007 @ 07:58 |
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DVD sales are down 4% because of the additional option to purchase high definition discs. If DVD were the only format to choose, then DVD sales would be as high as or higher than last year. 4% is not enough of a number to convince or impress me.
Like most others, I am not rushing out to drop $500 on a HD DVD player or Blu-ray player and have the other format as the "victorious format".
I will agree that newer generations are spending more time with video game consoles than watching TV. My household spends maybe 1/3 of their time on TV, which is usually just on for noise in the background, and the remainder of their time playing video games. I for one would much rather play 2 hours of video games rather than watch 2 hours of TV (about 45 minutes of which would be commercials). My 5 year old daughter is the same way. She would much rather sit down with me and play video games than watch cartoons on TV.
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SProdigy
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27. December 2007 @ 08:22 |
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Let's not forget that the consumer isn't rushing out to buy the "2.5" or "Ultra Mega Special Ultimate Unrated" versions of the DVD, which get released AFTER the "standard" DVD has been collecting dust on shelves. Just look at Lord of the Rings or Star Wars for a good example of how Hollywood keeps shilling out the same crap, with maybe a "never before seen" or "director's cut" addition or two. Not worth my time and energy. The crap sits on shelves, consumers buy up the "old" version in $5.99 bins and there's your 4%. Sorry Hollywood, we're not giving you 6000% Return-On-Investment.
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AfterDawn Addict
3 product reviews
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27. December 2007 @ 08:31 |
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There are a lot of factors that contribute to sales being down. The format war is part of it. I think another valid part is people are getting sick of paying full retail price for DVD's. That 4% decrease is represented in retail figures alone. I bet if one were to graph the sales of used DVD's from replay stores, or places like Half.com they would see that 4% well made up for and then some.
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oappi
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27. December 2007 @ 10:28 |
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the end of dvd is not near... ppl are not going to replace their whole collection just because there is "better" format (hd-dvd/blu-raY) so dvd is most likely kept in those hd drives. atleast i am not going to buy everymovie on hd if the prizes are like +10$-15$ more (to dvd).. only if movie is really good one i could think about it.
Also video in demand is not going to be major player since ppl like owning a copy.. not just bits and bytes that come through cable when you want.
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tester22
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27. December 2007 @ 11:36 |
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Videon On Demand just plain sucks!!
I want a PRISTINE copy of whatever I'm buying.
I wanna do what I want with it.
I wanna add it to my glorious collection of titles that I'm sure many pride themselves on like I do.
I wanna burn a copy for a friend later if I want.
I'm tired of a 'demand' that is governed by the distributor. Anyone seen the PPV selection for companies like Comcast and Directv?? UGGGHHHHHHH! Channel after channel of the same frakkin' flix. If VOD actually becomes the replacement to a Blockbuster or Netflix THEN maybe I'll consider...............as long as they stream at 1500 KBps
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tester22
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27. December 2007 @ 11:41 |
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And standard DVD is here to stay! Granted that the production of the DVDs will eventually cease, players are sure to stick around for the obvious reason. I love DVD and don't and won't plan on replacing many of my DVDs with an HD version.
Oh............Blu-ray AND HD-DVD are here to stay boys and girls. There will NOT be a winner. The outcome will absolutely be dual-format players. It's amazing that so many dilute themselves into thinking that "yeah, sure, if HD-DVD prevails then Sony will just stop manufacturing and start making ALL the movies they've already made in blu-ray, in HD-DVD" Yeah right. Anyone who believes this...........please...........stay out of the driver's seat of a car because your sensibility can't be trusted.
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emugamer
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27. December 2007 @ 12:14 |
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Originally posted by tester22:
Oh............Blu-ray AND HD-DVD are here to stay boys and girls. There will NOT be a winner. The outcome will absolutely be dual-format players.
I hope you are right. My friend has a bluray player and we went to buy some bluray titles the other day. Most of what he wanted was on HD. The titles that I wanted were split down the middle. It's funny shopping for them when they are on isles facing each other. I turn my head to one format and what I want isn't available. They need to get together, kiss and make up and just support a dual player as the only option.
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tester22
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27. December 2007 @ 13:00 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by tester22:
Oh............Blu-ray AND HD-DVD are here to stay boys and girls. There will NOT be a winner. The outcome will absolutely be dual-format players.
I hope you are right. My friend has a bluray player and we went to buy some bluray titles the other day. Most of what he wanted was on HD. The titles that I wanted were split down the middle. It's funny shopping for them when they are on isles facing each other. I turn my head to one format and what I want isn't available. They need to get together, kiss and make up and just support a dual player as the only option.
Agreed..............
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ematrix
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27. December 2007 @ 13:26 |
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DVD sales are down 4% not because of the additional option to purchase high definition discs, but rather the lack of appealing titles worth purchasing. In previous years DVD sales were much higher because of the release of blockbuster classic 80s and 90s titles, but know that pretty much everybody owns those movies they wished for on DVD, there are less options to choose from, since only a few of the new releases are worth buying, specially when you add to this the overpricing of DVD, HD DVD and Blu-ray titles, most consumers avoid double dipping for a ultimate extreme collectors special re-release of a movie they already own, even if that movie is now availible on HD DVD or Blu-Ray... simple as that.
I believe that the best option is if ever there's a winner of the HD DVD / Blu-ray format war, it should work simultaneously with DVD for the next 10+ years, rather than trying to debunk DVD as the dominant vehicle for consumer video. Reducing current retail prices (SRP) by half will appeal consumers to buy more movies than they currently do (even double dipping already own titles) and undeniably stores could offer discounts prices to promote higher sales.
Also they should follow the example of the videogame industry, where a game is released for several consoles (Wii, XBox 360, PS3) this scenario which will allow consumers to choose either an DVD 2 disc special edition at $10-15 SRP or an HD DVD / Blu-Ray edition at $20-25 SRP, with no different in content and aditional material other than the audiovisual quality, and all this will increases sales and profits.
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sciascia
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27. December 2007 @ 13:49 |
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Originally posted by tester22:
"yeah, sure, if HD-DVD prevails then Sony will just stop manufacturing and start making ALL the movies they've already made in blu-ray, in HD-DVD"
I can't imagine how you can think this. Imagine if format-X's sales skyrocketed. The remaining studios who are supporting format-Y or are dual format would most definitely jump to make format-Xs, it only makes sense to make a product that sells.
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SProdigy
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27. December 2007 @ 14:48 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
this scenario which will allow consumers to choose either an DVD 2 disc special edition at $10-15 SRP or an HD DVD / Blu-Ray edition at $20-25 SRP, with no different in content and aditional material other than the audiovisual quality, and all this will increases sales and profits.
Which is why I like DVDFab, because I can strip out everything but the main movie. If I could get JUST the movie for like $5-7 (I'm talking new releases) I'd be happy. Sell the other "version" for $10-20 depending on the content and make those in the minority of liking director commentary... happy. Doesn't that rid the need for DVD9 space, let alone the capacity of the HD formats?
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edlonwlf
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27. December 2007 @ 16:15 |
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Blu - Ray vs HD DVD huh ..... that sounds like a similiar "war" that happened a while back between Sony (of course) and everyone else.
Beta vs VHS ...... Guess sony didn't learn.
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Member
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27. December 2007 @ 16:25 |
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i think dvd sales goin down is onli the start, there are increasing numbers of quality freaks so sales will definateli booost for hd or blue ray
my (+[__]%) life
2.81 -> 3.71-> 3.71 m33-2 -> 3.71 m33-3 -> 3.71 m33-4 -> 3.80 m33 -> 3.80 m33-2 -> 3.80 m33-4
saddest (+[__]%) moment
i upgraded to 3.71
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ematrix
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27. December 2007 @ 18:14 |
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The reality is that barebones editions don't sell too well compared to special DVD editions packed with extra content and additional material, because consumers feel that they should get more than just the movie at such prices, specially when currently there is only a few dollars in difference from a barebones DVD edition to a special DVD edition.
Currently a HD DVD / Blu-Ray edition is priced at $30-40 SRP, a DVD special edition is priced at $20-30 SRP, and if availible, a DVD barebones edition (main movie only) is priced at $15-25 SRP... we are all tired of paying overpriced DVD movies, and in order to keep buying them, we need a significant reduction in price, specially if they want us to support HD DVD and Blu-Ray in the following years.
The best would be to reduce prices and allow consumers to choose either a special DVD edition at $10-15 SRP or an HD DVD / Blu-Ray edition at $20-25 SRP, all with exactly the same content and additional material, and the only difference to be the audiovisual quality... otherwise the new HD formats don't stand a chance.
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Member
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27. December 2007 @ 18:40 |
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DVD sales are down because studios continually release garbage movies.
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usndoc
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27. December 2007 @ 20:02 |
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I think everyone is missing the whole point of this news. The statement was that "DVD" regardless of format is going the way of the 5.25" floppy drive or the 8" floppy drive for those who are REALLY old (that includes me).
I have heard that the standard DVD will deteriorate even if unplayed in about 10 years. That is not good.
I have had a LOT of hard drive failures recently (overheating?), so far nothing critical.
The question is: WHAT is the new format to follow? I wonder if it could be flash drives and transmission to the drives by internet. I kind of laugh when I think of how long it takes, even at high speed, to download 4.6 Gigabytes.
SO! What will it be? While the FORMAT of video (DVD/Bluray/HD) changes, the question will also be.. on what medium will it be written? Now.. where is my nanodrive.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 27. December 2007 @ 20:03
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maryjayne
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28. December 2007 @ 07:52 |
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Even if DVDs start to fail in 10+ years, the next next generation format will be out and then everyone will be able to afford to upgrade to Blu-ray HD DVD burners and players. DVD offered better quality and much needed features, like not having to "be kind please rewind". The only features that seem appealing with the new format is better quality, but most consumers are content with DVD quality.
DVD will not die for a long time as long as the studios still expect consumers to pay the high prices for the newer formats and the newer formats continue to not offer anything revolutionary.
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shemmer
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28. December 2007 @ 08:26 |
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I'm weighing in to voice my opinion.
I believe DVDs have quite some life left in them yet. My reasoning is as follows.
The home entertainment revolution started with the humble video. Whether VHS or Beta was supreme matters not; it was the first medium to bring movies into the home. Looking back, the picture was grainy and generally speaking, crap, however it brought movies into the home for the first time. Next came laser disks, which were very expensive and large, cumbersome disks. CD's revolutionized peoples music collections due to their size and portability, however they didn't play movies. Then DVD came along - a superior movie playback medium. People took to DVD in their droves.
It had been (guess/estimation on my part) 20 years since VHS video had set the home movie scene. DVD was a great jump forward.
Now there's HDDVD and BluRay - but they've been released too soon since DVD. It's only been a few years since people have purchased DVD players and amassed DVD collections - unlike the 20 odd years it took people to upgrade from VHS to DVD.
Sure, that was because people had no superior medium to upgrade to. However, I for one am not going to upgrade to either HDDVD and BluRay simply because they're on offer.
For me it's simply a waste of money. The jump in quality from VHS video to DVD was massive - from VHS's grainy picture and stereo sound to DVD's crystal clear picture, menus, deleted scenes and 5.1/DTS quality sound was an immense leap forward.
But, in my opinion, and I know I will be strongly disagreed with on this, while the jump in quality from VHS video to DVD was massive, the jump in quality from DVD to HDDVD and Bluray isn't nearly as large.
Sure, there will be those who must have the latest and greatest. But it's my firm belief that for average Joe, DVD is a "good enough" technology. Average Joe makes up 90 odd percent of the consumer market, and that it why I believe DVD will still be around for years to come.
The change in picture and sound quality from DVD to HDDVD and Bluray isn't large enough for me, and I believe Average Joe, to justify the cost of upgrading.
I believe the change will come from the retailers, and not the consumers. When retailers start offering less of a DVD range and more HDDVD and Bluray range, consumers will have little choice but to upgrade. But while DVD and HDDVD/Bluray numbers on shelves are equal, or close to, it is my firm belief that DVD will last for quite some time yet.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 28. December 2007 @ 08:35
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tester22
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28. December 2007 @ 10:33 |
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Originally posted by edlonwlf:
Blu - Ray vs HD DVD huh ..... that sounds like a similiar "war" that happened a while back between Sony (of course) and everyone else.
Beta vs VHS ...... Guess sony didn't learn.
Digital is TOTALLY different and can't be compared so your point is .............well.............pointless.
As for {Sciascia}........You're right.........if you had made your point over a year ago. However, now, too much has been invested into EACH format and both are here to stay. Yeah, right, those who have invested HUNDREDS into one format are going to just allow themselves to retain a useless copy of a movie that will ultimately be obsolete.....NOT. Think clearly buddy.........oh, and don't go into business for yourself as you'll just sink it with your crippled business mentality.
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tester22
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28. December 2007 @ 10:38 |
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Originally posted by shemmer:
I'm weighing in to voice my opinion.
I believe DVDs have quite some life left in them yet. My reasoning is as follows.
It had been (guess/estimation on my part) 20 years since VHS video had set the home movie scene. DVD was a great jump forward.
Now there's HDDVD and BluRay - but they've been released too soon since DVD. It's only been a few years since people have purchased DVD players and amassed DVD collections - unlike the 20 odd years it took people to upgrade from VHS to DVD.
--Ummmmmmmm...............the DVD was invented in 1995 and took off nicely from the start so it's been 13 YEARS. Too soon my ass.--
But, in my opinion, and I know I will be strongly disagreed with on this, while the jump in quality from VHS video to DVD was massive, the jump in quality from DVD to HDDVD and Bluray isn't nearly as large.
--As for not nearly as large....Is your head up your ass when you're watching these because if so then I can see why you DON"T SEE a huge difference. Basically the difference from VHS to DVD is like standard Directv to HD over the air. C'Mon buddy..........pull it out of there. It's awfully dark and you just may suffocate.
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ematrix
Junior Member
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28. December 2007 @ 11:12 |
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Don't forget that this is one more of hundreds inacurate predictions made without considering all the factors, since his statement is based on an alleged 4% decline in DVD sales for this year, and increasing preference for watching movies through VoD services, even the growth of next generation video gaming, but he never considered overpricing and lack of appealing titles, which are direct factors for the decline... "Never underestimate your audience. They're generally sensitive, intelligent people who respond positively to quality entertainment." (Quote from Mitchell in Stargate SG-1 episode's 200)
Personally i don't find appealing VoD services as a replacement to actually watching (and owning) movies on DVD, since is much easier to buy or rent the movie at the nearest store, specially with current internet connection speeds. Also the growth of next generation video gaming isn't enough to worry about it already.
First of all, any disc will deteriorate even if unplayed if not handle and stored properly, such as exposing them to heat, dust, grease, sunlight and humidity. Secondly pressed original discs (CD, DVD) most likely will endure for decades, but low quality recordable media (CD-R, DVD-R) most likely will deteriorate on its own, even a few months after you burned them.
I still have some DVD titles from the first batch that Warner released in 1997, even CD albums that i got in the early 90's, as well as high quality CD-R and DVD-R i burned years ago, and all play with no problems. Not so long ago, i got some LG CD-R and DVD-R, which i thought then was a reliable brand, but a few months later they began to deteriorate on their own, i searched for some information and it turn out that they were crappy media, therefore it's just a matter of choosing wisely before purchasing blank discs.
Storing movies on hard drives seems guaranteed reliability and redundancy, but after a few years is recommended to migrate the content to new hard drives, and also must avoid exposure to magnetic fields, electric shocks, static, overheating, dust, grease, sunlight and humidity, even maintance is required and must be spun periodically to keep the moving parts working.
SD flash cards and USB drives may look as an excelent choice for the new format to follow, since currently you can find them with large storage capacity in a compact size, which would be much easier to handle and store properly, since they are nearly impervious to scratches and dust, even survive casual abuse.
But like all memory devices, they can sustain only a limited number of write and erase cycles before failure, and damage could occur if exposed to magnetic fields, electric shocks, static, overheating, grease, sunlight and humidity, also DRM is embedded in them, and the reality is that currently it would be expensive for them to manufacture and us to purchase, just a blank 8 GB SD card or USB drive (which would be enough to put one DVD movie in it) is priced up to $150 SRP ($60 at discount price)
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ematrix
Junior Member
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28. December 2007 @ 12:10 |
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--Ummmmmmmm...............the DVD was invented in 1995 and took off nicely from the start so it's been 13 YEARS. Too soon my ass.--
In 1993, two high-density optical storage standards were being developed; one was the MultiMedia Compact Disc, backed by Philips and Sony, and the other was the Super Density disc, supported by Toshiba, Time Warner, Matsushita Electric, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Pioneer, Thomson, and JVC.
Due an effort to unite the two camps behind a single standard, in order to avoid a format war like the one between VHS and Betamax in the 1980s, Philips and Sony abandoned their MultiMedia Compact Disc and fully agreed upon Toshiba's SuperDensity Disc, which led to the development of DVD, which finalized in December 1995, but it was until Spring 1997 when the first DVD players and the first batch of WB titles were availible (since WB supported DVD from the start) therefore it has been only 10 YEARS since the launch of DVD.
Maryjayne and Shemmer, i completely agree with your thoughts and point of view, there's no case for me to repeat what you have so eloquently expressed. Tester22... I don't see the purpose of you expresing in such manner, simply because others don't share your preference or point of view, if you're willing to pay even higher prices for a HD DVD / Blu-Ray movie, that's fine... but not everybody share your sentiments in the matter, and that doesn't justify you being disrespectful to others.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 28. December 2007 @ 12:20
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tester22
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28. December 2007 @ 13:17 |
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Quote:
Quote:
--Ummmmmmmm...............the DVD was invented in 1995 and took off nicely from the start so it's been 13 YEARS. Too soon my ass.--
In 1993, two high-density optical storage standards were being developed; one was the MultiMedia Compact Disc, backed by Philips and Sony, and the other was the Super Density disc, supported by Toshiba, Time Warner, Matsushita Electric, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Pioneer, Thomson, and JVC.
Due an effort to unite the two camps behind a single standard, in order to avoid a format war like the one between VHS and Betamax in the 1980s, Philips and Sony abandoned their MultiMedia Compact Disc and fully agreed upon Toshiba's SuperDensity Disc, which led to the development of DVD, which finalized in December 1995, but it was until Spring 1997 when the first DVD players and the first batch of WB titles were availible (since WB supported DVD from the start) therefore it has been only 10 YEARS since the launch of DVD.
Maryjayne and Shemmer, i completely agree with your thoughts and point of view, there's no case for me to repeat what you have so eloquently expressed. Tester22... I don't see the purpose of you expresing in such manner, simply because others don't share your preference or point of view, if you're willing to pay even higher prices for a HD DVD / Blu-Ray movie, that's fine... but not everybody share your sentiments in the matter, and that doesn't justify you being disrespectful to others.
It's not a matter of preference that's being referred to so PIPE DOWN! It's a matter of fact. Perhaps if you had the numerical scale of quality and comparison broken down to you, you would then see it's a fact. Whether you ENJOY or APPRECIATE the difference is opinion BUT there is a substantially HUGE difference in quality. And..........if you've ever seen a DVD on a 1080i,p LCD or Plasma then you understand so once again.......PIPE DOWN Mr. or Miss "my opinion should be counted even when it has no merit."
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tester22
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28. December 2007 @ 13:26 |
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Quote:
Quote:
--Ummmmmmmm...............the DVD was invented in 1995 and took off nicely from the start so it's been 13 YEARS. Too soon my ass.--
In 1993, two high-density optical storage standards were being developed; one was the MultiMedia Compact Disc, backed by Philips and Sony, and the other was the Super Density disc, supported by Toshiba, Time Warner, Matsushita Electric, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Pioneer, Thomson, and JVC.
Due an effort to unite the two camps behind a single standard, in order to avoid a format war like the one between VHS and Betamax in the 1980s, Philips and Sony abandoned their MultiMedia Compact Disc and fully agreed upon Toshiba's SuperDensity Disc, which led to the development of DVD, which finalized in December 1995, but it was until Spring 1997 when the first DVD players and the first batch of WB titles were availible (since WB supported DVD from the start) therefore it has been only 10 YEARS since the launch of DVD.
Maryjayne and Shemmer, i completely agree with your thoughts and point of view, there's no case for me to repeat what you have so eloquently expressed. Tester22... I don't see the purpose of you expresing in such manner, simply because others don't share your preference or point of view, if you're willing to pay even higher prices for a HD DVD / Blu-Ray movie, that's fine... but not everybody share your sentiments in the matter, and that doesn't justify you being disrespectful to others.
Yeah ten years but VHS did not take off immediately (respective to DVD) after invention. 2 years is nitpicking and not everyone can be expected to know the time and date of invention without looking it up like you just did.
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