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THX chief says war victory came too late for Blu-ray
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 25 March, 2008
THX chief scientist Laurie Fincham has been quoted as saying that despite its victory over HD DVD, Blu-ray will not become the next standard in the home entertainment market.
"Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" Fincham ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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ceno82
Junior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 18:27 |
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I couldn't agree more
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Senior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 18:37 |
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Quote:
By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards.
Thats a pretty big assumption. Especially when you look at the momentum blu rays got recently. I'd say personally by the time bluray has found mass market and become the standard. Then we might be looking at something like this.
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Senior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 18:39 |
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I'd say I partially agree with that. Although big flash drives are pretty expensive at the moment, the cheapest I could find a 32GB Corsair Flash Voyager is $149, the price may come down if consumers want their videos on them.
DVD is still king for now, in order for something other than Blu-Ray to take over something with a lot of momentum is going to have to come out in the next 1-3 years.
Peace
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locobrown
Senior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 18:42 |
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He could have a point. I'm tired of backing up my dvds, keeping the originals away from the hands of my 3 year old sister. 128GB flash is something to ponder upon. Rip all of my dvd collection and just plugin the flash drive into a player, but I have my xbox 1 that I use accordingly. No more discs but, we would still require a recorded copy just in case the flash drive or hard drive crashes so in a sense I don't think discs will be eliminated completely.
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vinny13
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25. March 2008 @ 19:18 |
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I prefer discs because they are cheaper in comparison to size and are just as reliable as long as you take care of them... Plus Flash cards are easier to lose because they are so much smaller. That sounds like a stupid reason but its true. One second its on the couch, the next second it's in the couch.
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AfterDawn Addict
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25. March 2008 @ 19:40 |
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128 Gb flash players are only an example. Something else better may be what takes over.BD won a Phyrric victory (IMHO).
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Xian
Senior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 19:51 |
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The players will have to come down in price to get mass market appeal. The biggest limitation to me is if I buy a Blu-Ray it only plays on my PS3, where if I buy a DVD it will play on any player in my house. Most of what I purchase is children's movies since they will watch them over and over where it's the rare movie I watch more than once.
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jrosado5
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25. March 2008 @ 20:02 |
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If you look at recent sales trends, HD DVDs are beating Blu_ray 2 to 1, although the clearance prices of HD DVDs are the reason. Blu-Rays biggest challenge is their price! Consumers will not spend $25-$35 for a movie they can own for $14.99 at Walmart! Unless Blu_ray lowers the price point to the $19.99 New Release range soon, they are settingthemselves up for a defeat via another format! Upconverting DVD Players just do a great enough job to keep the masses happy!
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AfterDawn Addict
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25. March 2008 @ 20:31 |
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Originally posted by jrosado5:
If you look at recent sales trends, HD DVDs are beating Blu_ray 2 to 1, although the clearance prices of HD DVDs are the reason. Blu-Rays biggest challenge is their price! Consumers will not spend $25-$35 for a movie they can own for $14.99 at Walmart! Unless Blu_ray lowers the price point to the $19.99 New Release range soon, they are settingthemselves up for a defeat via another format! Quote:
Upconverting DVD Players just do a great enough job to keep the masses happy
!
I don't think the warriors of the high def battle saw that one coming.
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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sgriesch
Junior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 20:37 |
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Go flash drives. This is a step in the right direction. As, I have been saying since 2004, the way of entertainment is changing. The idea of buying a new electronic box to add to the entertainment system is over. Eventually, it will be just a computer and monitor (and maybe speakers). The movies, music, and games will be bought as files. The computer will have a built-in powered audio signal (no receiver needed for home theater sound). This could end the need for format wars, and lessen the amount of space (not to mention wires) needed to set up your system. It's idealistic, but not too far off as media center computers are already out currently.
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MNPhoto
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25. March 2008 @ 20:44 |
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I couldn't agree more. With all of the different options now available to people, HD really only had one chance at becoming the successor to SD DVD and the format war destroyed that chance. Even without the format war it would have been tough going against the massively dominant SD DVD format. Lets face it SD DVD is by far the most successful format that has ever existed. It now has a library of over 70,000 titles and most of them can be had for super cheap. Most people are perfectly content with the quality of SD DVD or SD DVD upconverted on HD sets. Toshiba's upcoming Super upconvertion is only going to make the difference between HD and SD that much more insignificant to the general population.
The bottom line is alot of people have pretty significant SD DVD collections or at least own the titles that are most important to them and getting those people to adopt a new format where they have to rebuy those titles is a hard sell indeed. Most people who are buying HD sets arent even doing so to get HD content, they are simply buying the HD sets because they are far smaller and far better looking than old school sets. I have a buddy of mine who works at best buy and he estimated that only 1 in 3 people who aare buying HD sets are actively seeking out HD content to go with that set.
Sorry Blu Ray but there is just to much going against you. You will always remain a niche format in SD DVD's shadow. Even the iTunes movie store is going to obliterate your numbers but what do you expect when you have to pay 30 bucks for a 10 year old catalog title.
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Junior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 21:18 |
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I agree...and disagree.
If you burn to a disc...it's "set" in place. (Cost $$)
If the disc you burned gets broken, you burn another one. (Cost $$+$$)
If you have your movie on flash (Cost $$$$$)...you will want
to use that media again, and not have the flash siting around.
If you flash gets broken, you have to buy another one AND
replace your movie (Cost $$$$$+$$$$$).
So, all those flash card you currently have, you just pick them
up and use them right? I don't think so.
Basicly, use inexpensive media of good quality for long periods and rare ussage.
Use Expensive media for short storage and often use.
Of course, as soon as I finish writing this, 1 terabyte flash cards will be out...and all our problems will be solved!
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Ludikhris
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25. March 2008 @ 21:21 |
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Remember "Chief Scientist" does not mean they know anything about business or anything about the common market. Tech geeks always think the newest thing is the best thing. There is a huge difference between best technology and adopted technology. Obviously Sony knows business or they wouldn't be able to sell their goods for so much more than other brands. Discs are familiar to people, I think people will want to stick to them. On the other hand, there is not that much difference between DVD and Bluray to Joe Public, so who knows what will happen. I'm not sure if I like the idea of flash memory though. At least not for my collection of videos.
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CaLiMaCk
Junior Member
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25. March 2008 @ 21:44 |
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how much is MS paying ppl to spout this crap? are they that bitter? things like this arent gonna have mass market appeal or price anytime soon
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Member
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25. March 2008 @ 21:57 |
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thats dumb!
i wont even argue why.
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Member
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25. March 2008 @ 22:32 |
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its gonna be a long time before HD becomes the standard... cause a) SD DVD's look fine on a decent tv and b) not everyone can afford an hd tv and a blu ray player and a surround system etc...
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MNPhoto
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25. March 2008 @ 23:00 |
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Originally posted by Ludikhris:
Remember "Chief Scientist" does not mean they know anything about business or anything about the common market. Tech geeks always think the newest thing is the best thing. There is a huge difference between best technology and adopted technology. Obviously Sony knows business or they wouldn't be able to sell their goods for so much more than other brands. Discs are familiar to people, I think people will want to stick to them. On the other hand, there is not that much difference between DVD and Bluray to Joe Public, so who knows what will happen. I'm not sure if I like the idea of flash memory though. At least not for my collection of videos.
Absolutely there will be a lot of people that stick with discs and that is why SD DVD will be the dominant platform for at least another 5-10 years. The only way Blu Ray even has a chance at succeeding SD DVD is if they suddenly stop producing SD DVD's and force people to upgrade which is just simply never going to happen. SD DVD is a 27 billion dollar a year business and the studios are not going to risk their slice of that pie just to get people to move over to HD to buy the same films for a few bucks more.
I don't think it has as much to do with what technologies are coming as much as it has to do with what technologies are already here, SD DVD, Super Upconversion, On Demand Etc.. Sure it was easy to get the first couple million people to adopt HD as those were all of the die hard home theater buffs but its going to be a whole hell of alot harder getting the next million and the million after that and so on. One of the most popular sized HDTV's being sold are 42" and at that size you have to sit closer than most people do in order to see a significant difference between these formats. I actually do Architectural photography for a living and alot of home theatre rooms or rooms that are used for watching movies have the seating too far back to be able to see any difference at all. I see couches all the time that are around 12-15 feet away from 50" or lower sets and again at those distances even someone with 20/20 or better vision wont be able to see a difference. Just think of all of the people that have 20/25 or 20/30 and don't wear glasses. This is just another thing going against the format and lets face it there are a lot of things going against HD being adopted buy any significant amount of the population.'
Don't get me wrong I am not saying that Blu Ray is going to fail anytime soon, tho it just might, I am saying that it will remain a niche format and will never be adopted by any significant numbers, not with SD DVD, Upconvertion, Super Upconvertion, Apple TV's, XBox live Marketplace, PS3 Marketplace, iTunes Movie Store and many other options now available for consumers. SD DVD was such a massive improvement over VHS that it was bound to take over the market. Once Betamax was out of the way there was absolutely no competition against it at all and it was again a major breakthrough technology wise. That simply isn't the case with Blu Ray. Yes it is an improvement but compared to the difference of SD DVD and VHS, well it utterly pales in comparison and there are alot of devices and companies now competing against Blu Ray. It simply doesn't stand a chance but of course the Blu Ray supporters will never admit to this to save their lives.
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AfterDawn Addict
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25. March 2008 @ 23:17 |
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Originally posted by MNPhoto:
.....alot of home theatre rooms or rooms that are used for watching movies have the seating too far back to be able to see any difference at all. I see couches all the time that are around 12-15 feet away from 50" or lower sets and again at those distances even someone with 20/20 or better vision wont be able to see a difference..................
Most people who are buying HD sets arent even doing so to get HD content, they are simply buying the HD sets because they are far smaller and far better looking than old school sets. I have a buddy of mine who works at best buy and he estimated that only 1 in 3 people who aare buying HD sets are actively seeking out HD content to go with that set.
From my limited experience- not a professional, just observing friends, relatives, friends-of-friends...I agree. Many people buy the HD displays for looks, convenience, or just to be "trendy". Could care less about the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, some don't even know that to actually get the HD content, just a TV capable of displaying HD content is not enough.
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25. March 2008 @ 23:22 |
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I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.
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AfterDawn Addict
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25. March 2008 @ 23:26 |
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Quote:
Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.
Its just a different medium. Instead of a bunch of 1's and 0's burnt onto a organic dye on a disc their "burned" onto a flash drive that will last MUCH longer.
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atomicxl
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25. March 2008 @ 23:51 |
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I hope this happens. Modern PCs can play this content and most HDTVs have a computer input on them. Not everyone is into it, but I think soon PCs will really start to infiltrate the living room. Also, the PS3 and Xbox 360 can play MP4 files with H.264 up to 1920x1080 and 5.1 AAC audio (PS3 only, 360 is limited to stereo) and WMV files up to the same resolution but 5.1 on both systems.
There are ALOT of those already in homes across the world. Not only that, Windows Media Player (therefore most computers on the planet) support media sharing with these devices so you can store them on your PC and watch them on any tv connected to any device in your house. The technology is already there and waiting to be used.
I'm ranting now, but I think this will change everything once people really realize the power of it and hardware companies start putting wireless networking in TVs, Stereos, etc. The ability to stream anything from any computer to anything in your house would be amazing. And the cool thing is that the back bone for it is already there... its just not being used to its real potential.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 25. March 2008 @ 23:55
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Member
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26. March 2008 @ 00:13 |
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hahaha, it's so funny 128gb flash hahahaha, what do you even need a 128gb flash card??? that is DUMB!!, it can be just a specially designed flash card(and i say specially designed flash card since the MAFIA will for sure want some DRM on it, which of course we'll be cracked and the world will turn as always do) which somehow has a serial number, something like a mac adress, so you can go to a store, download it to your flash card, then get to your home, where you just insert the flash card, and it automaticaly downloads the content in it, then erase the memory of the flash disc, then you could have 2 options, 1)the device streams its content via wireless to any tv in the house, 2)you can only redownload it to the same memory flash, and to a registered player (maybe via internet i dont know), so why would you like to have 128gb in your pocket, so you can forget it and goes in to the dry cleanning??? when you can just have it in the hard drive, (which in case some of you dont know still have disc inside, so in a matter of speaking you still have a physical disk, just that this disk is protected and wont scrath, ok datta may corrupt, but with 500gb hard drives i am sure it might also have a backup system ;)
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trainmstr
Newbie
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26. March 2008 @ 01:53 |
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hooray ... hell with discs. blueray and hddvd sux
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AfterDawn Addict
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26. March 2008 @ 02:12 |
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Originally posted by c1c:
_
I see how HD movies on a flash card makes sense. But there is always something about having a physical disc. You have the artwork, the box, etc. Doesn't make sense to own a movie that is just a file on a card.
Ever watched "Equilibrium" (2002)(if not, I recommend it)? That's what is gonna be, no Blu-Ray, HD-DVD or anything. No movies, no XBOX, no PS3...no entertainment...
So if you want save your precious HD stuff, start building that secret bunker! A tiny memory card will make sense, will be much easier to hide than a few hundred discs:~)!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 26. March 2008 @ 02:12
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Jaussi
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26. March 2008 @ 02:32 |
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I couldn't disagree more. People will want to have an actual collection of movies on HD too, and what about those who don't understand anything about computers etc. For example, if you give my parents a flashdrive and a computer which can read it, they would have no idea how to use it, and I'm sure there are millions of people like them out there.
And then there's people like me, I could use them with ease, but I still want to have my movies on discs, and be able to look at at shelf filled with movies, not a drawer filled with flashdrives. And I'm sure I'm not alone with this opinion.
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