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Blu-ray to outsell DVD by 2011, says Sony Pictures
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 2 August, 2008
Citing the latest market reports available, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment Asia Pacific vice president Tim Meade has confided that the company believes sales of Blu-ray Discs will beat out that of standard definition DVDs by the year 2011.
According to the market reports, global sales value of BD movies will rise from 9 percent at the end of 2007 to about 25 percent of all market share ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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JaguarGod
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2. August 2008 @ 12:59 |
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It's possible... I guess... It depends on the price. A BD movie is not that much better than DVD in quality. Unless if you spend $5000 on a decent audio system, the sound difference will not matter, so I don't know.
If the players get competitive in pricing (like around $200), and movies are $20 when released, then there is a good chance. Otherwise, people may not "buy" into BD.
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AfterDawn Addict
4 product reviews
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2. August 2008 @ 13:33 |
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I doubt it mainly due to BR player price and saturation, 2013-15 much more likely.
Unless you see 150$ and lower BR players before the end of 2010 its just not going to happen.
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AfterDawn Addict
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2. August 2008 @ 13:41 |
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Don't think it is possible by 2011
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Senior Member
11 product reviews
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2. August 2008 @ 13:46 |
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I don't see blu-ray as the "Next big thing" any how. I believe DVD will have to compete with "downloading content", (speaking of sales only)
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SDF_GR
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2. August 2008 @ 14:40 |
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If they find a way to put in every home an HD-tv and a BD player or a ps3 it might.
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casemodd
Newbie
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2. August 2008 @ 14:41 |
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"bart simpson laugh" The masses wont adopt till prices fall under $100 Dvd-up convert is great quality as is, no need to get that DRM infection.
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2. August 2008 @ 14:43 |
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Sony are hedging their bets on everything staying the same between now and three years time. Given how volatile the economic and technological situations have proven to be over the last few years, I'd say that's a pretty big gamble.
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Junior Member
2 product reviews
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2. August 2008 @ 14:57 |
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lynchGOP
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2. August 2008 @ 15:30 |
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Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.
As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 2. August 2008 @ 15:32
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Newbie
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2. August 2008 @ 16:41 |
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Originally posted by lynchGOP:
Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.
As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3
PS2 garbage? what have you been smoking
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2. August 2008 @ 17:11 |
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Cmon Sony you got to drop the price of your hardware before you can even think about taking on SD-DVD sells.First thing first.
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akkuma
Junior Member
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2. August 2008 @ 17:12 |
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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
I doubt it mainly due to BR player price and saturation, 2013-15 much more likely.
Unless you see 150$ and lower BR players before the end of 2010 its just not going to happen.
EXACTLY!
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redux79
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2. August 2008 @ 18:16 |
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I can understand sony wanting/needing blu-ray to overtake dvd... but these numbers seem just a little exaggerated. 20% of total market share last month? and passing the 50% mark in 2 to 3 years?
dvd's roots are deep and prices are a fraction of blu-ray. Also because dvd technology is old and widespread it depreciates much more quickly. Old and used dvd's can be found practically everywhere for next to nothing and the same can be said for the players.
blu-ray has a huge hill to climb in order to justify a lifespan the same length as dvd. A lot of things have to come together at just the right time for that to happen. sony makes it sound like it's already an inevitability, but in reality it's a very long complicated process that leaves much to chance.
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mrklean
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2. August 2008 @ 20:58 |
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When I can find a BD player under $100. When I can buy BD's for around the same price as DVDs now. When I get an HDTV. When I get a amazing sound system. When BD burn at more than 2x. When BD burners are under $100. I can go on and on. Sony has to think optimistic. Something of their products have to go good for once. PS3 lost over $3 billion. PSP was a failure compared to DS. BD is their last hope.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 2. August 2008 @ 20:59
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stuntman_
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2. August 2008 @ 21:55 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by lynchGOP:
Yeah, right!! Like that's just going to happen in a bit over 2 years. Blu-ray, I PREDICT, will be phasing out about that time with other HD media format (flash, holographic, download). DVD is here to stay. I'm not going BD unless I can get a player for less than a 100 bucks.
As for having a PS3 as a primary player............well.............if history is any sign of things to come then, like the PS2, the PS3 will break, bust, skip, misread and flat out stop reading all in all. GOD love the PS2, BUT IT WAS GARBAGE!!! I don't see any reason why Sony would change their construction format for the PS3
PS2 garbage? what have you been smoking
He hasn't been smoking anything, it was a good system with good games, but they were built terribly, so many of them had the DRE problem I have gone through 4 fat ones myself they are just cheap and unreliable
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AfterDawn Addict
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2. August 2008 @ 22:15 |
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Yeah I can see all our people, with the money they're saving on $4/gal gas here, will put all that EXTRA money into BluRay discs and players. Arrogance to the extreme. All those ps3s are in the kid's bedrooms. And they pirate all they can and Mom and Dad think SD DVD looks just fine with their tired eyes. $ony $ucks and I try not to buy anything they make.
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llongtheD
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2. August 2008 @ 22:34 |
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I recently bought a nice upconverting dvd player, and it looks fantastic on my HD tv. It was much cheaper than re-purchasing my entire dvd collection, on DRM-ray. I think Sony's reaching a bit here, unless like other posters have noted, drmray can be price competitive with good old DVD.
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Staff Member
2 product reviews
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3. August 2008 @ 00:24 |
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Quote:
According to the market reports, global sales of BD movies will rise from 9 percent at the end of 2007 to about 25 percent of all market share by the end of this year, and that the number was already at about 20 percent as of July.
I'd like to know what periods of time he's actually talking about exactly. According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007. Since Blu-ray has been far more successful in the US than anywhere else, with the possible exception of Japan, I'd say that means it was less than 1% of total sales for the year.
This brings me to 2 points. To begin with his numbers are meaningless unless he decides to elaborate on what period of time at the end of the year he's talking about. Are we talking about the month of December? Maybe it's the last two weeks of the year. Whenever it is you can be sure the period last year was one in which there were huge sales on Blu-ray due to competition with HD DVD.
The other thing isn't so much a conclusion as a question. If Blu-ray is doing so well why does he have to use misleading figures to prove it?
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llongtheD
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3. August 2008 @ 00:56 |
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The other thing isn't so much a conclusion as a question. If Blu-ray is doing so well why does he have to use misleading figures to prove it?
Thats the way salesman work. They have to make everyone believe they're missing the boat if they don't grab one of these bluray players NOW! Its the next big thing you know, lol. The sales teams at these company's have just gotten more crafty at inserting this propaganda into the media like its "News." You believe the News don't you? THEY said it, so it MUST be true.
I view the media this way; The media is an endless riverbank full of gravel bullshit, that every once in a while, you find an agate of truth in.
If your fish seems sick, put it back in the water.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. August 2008 @ 01:11
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DoomLight
Junior Member
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3. August 2008 @ 01:05 |
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its possible. but i doubt it. anything can happen in 3 years.
a newer format?
cheaper players?
change from physical media to download only?
but since DVD is still rather cheap and popular. i just dont forsee bluray winning any serious battles.
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juankerr
Member
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3. August 2008 @ 01:19 |
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Originally posted by vurbal:
According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007.
vurbal: The funny thing is that in the original article quoted in your link the EMA is predicting that BluRay will surpass DVD in 2012:
Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012
Quote:
Washington, D.C. (June 24, 2008) -- A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.
The Entertainment Merchants Association, a non-profit trade group, predicts that Blu-ray disc sales will reach $9.5 billion in 2012, up from $260 million in 2007.
The group adds that all home video spending will increase to $25.6 billion in that year, compared to $24 billion in 2007. The rise will be boosted by the growth of Blu-ray and the video game industry.
Maybe his projections are based on the EMA study itself.
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dragnandy
Senior Member
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3. August 2008 @ 02:15 |
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yea i agree with most, blu-ray will replace DVD's as long as
1.price dramatically drops
2.burning speed increase
3.everybody gets an HDTV
i mean, when DVD's came out, how much were they? ALOT. and look at them now. theyre dirt cheap, $30 for a pack of 100? dvd players can be as cheap as $20?
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AfterDawn Addict
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3. August 2008 @ 02:31 |
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Originally posted by DoomLight:
its possible. but i doubt it. anything can happen in 3 years.
a newer format?
cheaper players?
change from physical media to download only?
but since DVD is still rather cheap and popular. i just dont forsee bluray winning any serious battles.
ya...digi downloads to replace physical media...try 10+ years not 3...., BR needs to be cheap in both film and player to really get anywhere.
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Staff Member
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3. August 2008 @ 03:21 |
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Originally posted by juankerr:
Originally posted by vurbal:
According to the EMA (Entertainment Merchants Association) DVD enjoyed more than a 50:1 advantage over Blu-ray and HD DVD combined in 2007.
vurbal: The funny thing is that in the original article quoted in your link the EMA is predicting that BluRay will surpass DVD in 2012:
Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012
Quote:
Washington, D.C. (June 24, 2008) -- A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.
The Entertainment Merchants Association, a non-profit trade group, predicts that Blu-ray disc sales will reach $9.5 billion in 2012, up from $260 million in 2007.
The group adds that all home video spending will increase to $25.6 billion in that year, compared to $24 billion in 2007. The rise will be boosted by the growth of Blu-ray and the video game industry.
Maybe his projections are based on the EMA study itself.
The EMA's so-called study was simply analysis of member sales from the previous year, and the opinions of analysts. It's a report they release annually. My questions about Sony's numbers has nothing to do with those predictions. They can't predict the future any more than you or I can. Do you suppose the EMA was predicting in last year's report that Blu-ray player sales would plummet if HD DVD disappeared? Of course not. And yet that's exactly what happened. I can tell you for a fact that this time last year everyone was predicting that market would take off immediately if one format or the other was gone. So if they couldn't get that right what makes this year's guesses more reliable?
Regardless of that my questions stand. What period of last year, was he talking about that Blu-ray accounted for 9% of home video sales? And why is that particular period more important than the rest of the year? And as long as we're asking questions why is anything about last year relevant for predicting the future? Sales of Blu-ray and HD DVD were both based primarily on promotions that ended as soon as Toshiba threw in the towel earlier this year.
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AfterDawn Addict
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3. August 2008 @ 03:31 |
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Quote:
I can tell you for a fact that this time last year everyone was predicting that market would take off immediately if one format or the other was gone. So if they couldn't get that right what makes this year's guesses more reliable?
They got a new crystal ball that wasn't biased ?
(but really folks, that doesn't exist)
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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