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Analyst predicts continued sales slump for Blu-ray in 2008
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 14 May, 2008
At last week's MEDIA-TECH Expo in Frankfurt, Germany, media analyst Richard Cooper of Screen Digest predicted that the struggling US economy will have a major impact on the growth of Blu-ray in 2008. During his presentation on the future of Blu-ray Cooper backed up his assertion with some interesting figures, largely from DVD sales, showing that US households have historically purchase more ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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ripxrush
Junior Member
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14. May 2008 @ 15:56 |
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dir dir dir dir! What the hell did you guys think was/is gonna happen? It is a great yet for D/L content & flash content to make a go for the HD Title! with little to no extra players &/or items to buy only the Movie it self it is great for a recession! so you just spend $4 on a rental on your current system ot spend $400 on a BR player to spend $4-20 renting & buying movies what to do? oh & i have to use $500 in gas to drive to Be$t Buyz to get my $400 player (maybe not $500 but feels like it)
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AfterDawn Addict
1 product review
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14. May 2008 @ 16:00 |
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With a full on recession in the US, You think ??????
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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eatsushi
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3 product reviews
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14. May 2008 @ 16:03 |
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I think this is another misleading title and directly contradicts the data presented by the analyst.
http://www.media-tech.net/fileadmin/temp..._HDJ%5B1%5D.pdf
The graph on his third slide clearly shows a prediction that BluRay will increase in sales compared to DVD through 2008 up to 2012 so much so that by 2011 he predicts that BluRay will be 1/3 of all total sales:
Quote:
Unit sales recover as consumers switch to BluRay
- BluRay to account for one in three sales by 2011
Just look at the bar graph for 2007 and 2008 and all the way to 2012. You can see an increasing volume of BluRay sales as compared to DVD. BD sales barely registered on the graph in 2007. The 2008 graph shows growth in sales - barely a "slump" as vurbal calls it. "Slump" means a decrease in sales. Obviously the analysts sees a growth starting this year.
The title of the article should read: Analyst predicts continued BluRay sales growth to reach 33% by 2011
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. May 2008 @ 16:06
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juankerr
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14. May 2008 @ 16:21 |
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Originally posted by eatsushi:
The graph on his third slide clearly shows a prediction that BluRay will increase in sales compared to DVD through 2008 up to 2012 so much so that by 2011 he predicts that BluRay will be 1/3 of all total sales:
Quote:
Unit sales recover as consumers switch to BluRay
- BluRay to account for one in three sales by 2011
Just look at the bar graph for 2007 and 2008 and all the way to 2012. You can see an increasing volume of BluRay sales as compared to DVD. BD sales barely registered on the graph in 2007. The 2008 graph shows growth in sales - barely a "slump" as vurbal calls it. "Slump" means a decrease in sales. Obviously the analysts sees a growth starting this year.
The title of the article should read: Analyst predicts continued BluRay sales growth to reach 33% by 2011
Agreed. I don't know how any analyst can predict a sales slump for BluRay for 2008. For the 1st quarter alone (the slowest sales season of the year), HD media has already sold 50% of the total volume sold in 2007:
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/13771.cfm
Quote:
According to Reuters, 5 million HD movies have already been sold this year (mainly Blu-ray) and that puts the pace far ahead then 2007 which saw only 10 million movies sold for the entire year.
One-in-three sales by 2011 - I'll take that given the rate of HDTV market penetration.
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susieqbbb
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14. May 2008 @ 16:49 |
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What a bunch of morons.
It has nothing to do with the blu ray movies it has to do with the blu ray players nobody is going to spend 300.00 for a 1080i blu-ray player when they can get a upconverter that converts dvd into 1080i for 80.00 now if you can make a blu-ray player for 80.00 then i would be interrested because i have a ps3 and i don't even use it for blu ray playback because i am not willing to purchase blu ray movies at 10-20 more than there dvd counter parts lame lower the prices and your sales will increase.
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Junior Member
1 product review
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14. May 2008 @ 17:03 |
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They should fire that guy, split up his 6 figure salary and pay a few longtime afterdawn members to do his job from home ;-)
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AntSpliff
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14. May 2008 @ 18:12 |
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Susieqbbb, so many brainiacs in here that don't get it. They're flatout wrong and won't acknowledge what you wrote.
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Senior Member
5 product reviews
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14. May 2008 @ 19:54 |
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I will agree that I would like to see Blu-ray movies drop in price. I live in Australia, a regular (new release) DVD retails for about $30 where the Blu-ray version is usually about $40. As I much as I would like to see prices drop, I also understand that the Blu-ray Disc Association need to recover costs for R & D. Production costs are also higher for this format.
However, when viewing (and listening) to these films on quality equipment it is very hard to go back. It's like you've been a driving in a sports car and then had to go back to your regular old family car. It doesn't quite feel the same. Sure the family car felt good before you started driving the perfomance vehicle but after you've had a taste of something better the inadequacies of the latter become clearer.
Susieqbbb, Blu-ray players output up to 1080p not 1080i like you stated. DVD's (even if they are upconverted) don't even come close to the quality Blu-ray discs provide on the right equipment.
So my point is that unless you have the equipment to view and hear Blu-ray movies with the quality intended (ie: Full HD/1080p TV & quality audio equipment) then you don't really have the right criteria to say that regular DVD's are just as good.
Also, Blu-ray movies are not the only thing that count towards Blu-ray as a format. The PS3 games are all pressed on Blu-ray discs, so every PS3 game sold is also a step forward for the Blu-ray Disc Association.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. May 2008 @ 19:58
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dragnandy
Senior Member
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14. May 2008 @ 21:37 |
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i wouldnt be surprised if blu ray sales arent strong in 2008 either. i mean, like a quarter of the people i know dont even know what it is. like they'll have an HDTV, with no HD-DVD or blu ray player. whats the point of an HDTV without some HD viewing? but just give it some time and everyone will adjust to it.
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varnull
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14. May 2008 @ 21:41 |
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Or maybe we will give the drm-ray the finger..
blu sales in a town of 35,000 = 0.. multiply across the planet = more sony "buy now pay later"
We aren't falling for it again sony.
same old faces.. same old sony hype... more bullsh1t from the same camps here... move along.. nothing new to see here.
hey ryu... BDA = bluray disk a$$hats? **giggles at failed format compulsory subscribers** (or I could be a lot more offensive about these scumbags)
sony = enemy
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. May 2008 @ 21:47
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error5
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14. May 2008 @ 23:55 |
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vurbal: How about reporting on the other presentors at the MediaTech Expo?
http://www.media-tech.net/expo08/events-seminars.html
Jim Bottoms of Understanding and Solutions had some very interesting predictions too:
http://www.media-tech.net/fileadmin/temp...0May%202008.pdf
The graph on slide#10 for example. He predicts 45 million BluRay discs are to be sold in the US for 2008 and 15 million for Europe. That's a pretty good improvement from the 10 million (combined HD DVD and BD) sold in the US in 2007, right? As pointed out by eatsushi above, Richard Cooper agrees with this prediction of increased BD disc sales in 2008 as compared to last year.
He also predicts that in the year 2011 there will be 450 million BD disc sales in the US and 180 million in Europe.
The Singulus and the DADC presentations also paint a rosy picture with respect to increased replication capacity. Actually the entire first day of the Expo was dominated by BluRay presentors, manufacturers and replicators.
Quote:
1:00PM - 5:30PM Presentation Theatre
Blu-ray Summit
Dieter Daum, President Sony DADC, Download presentation [PDF]
Blu-ray Equipment Update
Stefan A. Baustert, President & CEO, Singulus Technologies.
Stanley So, Sales Manager, Anwell Thin Film & Vacuum Technology Ltd.
Toshio Koike, Senior Corporate Advisor, Marubeni Techno-Systems America.
Blu-ray Market Update
Frank Simonis, European Chairman, Blu-ray Disc Association.
Jim Bottoms, President, Understanding & Solutions.
Richard Cooper, Analyst, Screen Digest Video Team.
Blu-ray Authoring Update
Simon James, Senior Marketing Manager, Sonic Solutions - Professional Products Group.
Blu-ray Licensing Update
BD Format licensing: Boudewijn van Dijk, representative of the Blu-ray CC.
MPEG LA Licensing: William Geary, Vice President Business MPEG LA.
Not really the doom-and-gloom-fest that you try to imply in your article.
Panasonic PT-AE3000 1080p Projector//Carada 110" Criterion High Contrast Grey 16:9 Screen//Oppo BDP-83SE//Toshiba HD-XA2
Classe SSP800 Processor//Classe CA-5200 5 Channel Amplifier//Classe CA-2200 2 Channel Amplifier
Bowers & Wilkins 802D L-R/HTM 1D Center/SCMS Surrounds/JL Audio Fathom f113 x 2
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 15. May 2008 @ 00:09
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B33rdrnkr
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15. May 2008 @ 00:09 |
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I am happy with regular old dvds.. I would however laugh my as$ off if blu ray failed to catch on like betamax and something else came out that was better..
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Senior Member
5 product reviews
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15. May 2008 @ 08:28 |
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Hey Varnull, how's your CRT holding out?
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maryjayne
Junior Member
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15. May 2008 @ 10:05 |
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Is there a study that accounts for Blu-ray burners? I know there is also a trend of people moving more toward purchasing/building HTPC systems (myself already owning one).
If I ever buy into the Blu-ray market (and I probably wont for a few years yet), then I will be simply adding a Blu-ray burner to my HTPC rather than purchasing a stand alone or PS3. I like the idea of better picture and sound, but I do not like the idea of DRM or high pricing.
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Member
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15. May 2008 @ 12:43 |
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Blu-Ray is doing fine no matter how people like or dislike it the numbers this year are far better than last years.I expect a major rush this coming holiday season.
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mikeg730
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16. May 2008 @ 00:00 |
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What still puzzles me is why the average consumer isn't wise enough to just purchase a PS3 at $399 ? I mean for that amount of money you walk home with a Blu-ray player, a game system, wi/fi internet, bluetooth, a hard drive to store music, photos etc and a multi card reader. OR, spend $500-$700 for a stand alone Blu-ray unit? Don't get me wrong, I'm an Xbox 360 guy all the way but the PS3 is the best value (as of today) for a Blu-ray buyer. I was a HD-DVD casualty because I went by Sony's past medium failures such as Beta-Max,Mini-disc,Super Audio CD, UMD etc and thought Blu-ray was just next in that line. Boy was I wrong. Does anyone share this same opinion? Yeah sales may slow but with a "rumor" of an Xbox 360 BR drive, the prices should become more competitive and fall to a more affordable level. Sales will go up when all of these harware companies wanting their slice of the Blu-ray pie start to drop the prices(thus lowering the BR movie price too).
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emugamer
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16. May 2008 @ 12:05 |
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Originally posted by NexGen76:
Blu-Ray is doing fine no matter how people like or dislike it the numbers this year are far better than last years.I expect a major rush this coming holiday season.
I had a list of bluray titles that I wanted to get by the holiday season. But gas prices here went from $3.60/gal to $4.10/gal in 2 days (and only 2 weeks before Memorial Day). I can't imagine how high it will get this summer. Forecasts I've heard are over $5.00/gal. I've adjusted my budget to prepare to get slammed with an extra $100 - $150/month in gas (maybe even more once my kid starts school in September), and also an increase in my home heating bill. So all electronic and video entertainment expenses have been completely cut out of my family budget for the remainder of 2008. I'm sure there are other families out there with similar situations. I'm curious as to how much of an impact the US economy is speculated to have in these studies.
And I would buy a PS3 game over a bluray movie. It provides more mindless entertainment time to escape the economy woes :(
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 16. May 2008 @ 12:06
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Senior Member
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16. May 2008 @ 15:12 |
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Ryu77, Varnull is probably still watching his VHS tapes as well, you know he wouldn't have bought a Beta player and why go to DVD's when VHS is so good. :) Do they make an Upconverted VHS? Too funny... :)
I know I'll never upgrade to BD when a DVD Upconverted player is so great, wait a minute maybe I should take another puff.
I think sales will be a little slow this year compared to what they might have been projected, due to the economy and the fact that the war is over. BD won't drop in price much until they feel sales are truly slumping.
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JRude
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16. May 2008 @ 18:12 |
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I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.
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varnull
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16. May 2008 @ 18:39 |
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Originally posted by JRude:
I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.
RIGHT ON!!!
Next person who refers to me as HE gets the shafting that is due to them... AND YES!!! I do still watch vhs tapes, n1700tapes, n1500 tapes (which look as good as dvd on a well set up machine), laserdisk and all kinds of older media.
I'm with JRude on this. I can't abide the rich c-nts preaching at us "consume consume consume.. new new new" .. f-ckin a$$hats!!! Try being self employed in a declining economy with 30% inflation.. then say "I must spend £1000 on a f-in telly.. It is essential to my lifestyle"!!! Crap.. When I started out you were lucky to have a 20 year old B+W tv salvaged from a back street and repaired for your bedsit, IF you could find one.
Open source and analog... shit to digital media.. it isn't better, it's just CHEAPER TO PRODUCE on mass.. More output DOES NOT mean better quality.. just more repetitive formulaic boring shite.. (last 2 years hollywood record breaking output shows what crap people will buy "because it is new"
Ears and eyes are analog.. as is the emergency broadcasting system...
20 years and none of this will matter.. we will be lucky to have somewhere to sit to watch an ipod size screen, and the power to run it will cost more that 80% will earn.
Observation of a local man with 4 children and a big house who became unemployed..
First things to go were the huge tv and HD player.. then the flash car, replaced with an old wreck.. then the nice kitchen appliances.. then the big flashy house... then the wife and kids... He still has his golf club membership, but doesn't go more than once a month... They don't like mixing with "the dole scroungers" up there..
I softmodded his second hand xbox and sorted him out a 17" tv (£5, and he had to think about spending that on £45 a week) and an old computer for his 2 room flat..
Funny how far people can fall given 12 months of no income eh?
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 16. May 2008 @ 18:41
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plextor05
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16. May 2008 @ 21:10 |
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Screw Sony.... Stay with what ya got, and let them struggle.
Don't buy any more gas than you absolutely have to.
Don't fill up, just buy enough to get you where you have to go.
When the demand falls, so will the rich turds who run those companies.
Nuff said....
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AfterDawn Addict
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16. May 2008 @ 21:20 |
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Originally posted by plextor05:
Screw Sony.... Stay with what ya got, and let them struggle.
Don't buy any more gas than you absolutely have to.
Don't fill up, just buy enough to get you where you have to go.
When the demand falls, so will the rich turds who run those companies.
Nuff said....
With the above in mind,would anyone care to comment on my orphan thread ??
http://forums.afterdawn.com/thread_view.cfm/662334
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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klbinphx
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17. May 2008 @ 01:44 |
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Big surprise! Sony won the battle but lost the war. Too bad, HD-DVD software was less buggy and offered much cheaper players. Blu Ray will never recover, and in the end game, Toshiba will be the victor.
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Senior Member
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17. May 2008 @ 04:45 |
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Originally posted by JRude:
I don't drive a Maserati.... I drive a hoopty Dodge...I don't have nor want a Blu Ray player. I don't have an HDTV....I have 2 coupon subsidized converter boxes. I don't have a cell phone! I don't need 24/7 harassment from bed to bathroom. I don't have M$ FISTA...I have XP.
I do a lot of STUFF on the PC. It runs fine. SO does my hoopty. So does my DVD player WITHOUT an upconverter.
You must take into account that most posters to technical websites are high end users (or wannabe's!)who wish to be on the next cutting edge. The general public is not so much enthralled at better quality at any price. I am not. It must be a quantum leap...blu Ray is no such leap. I am not market driven...you could say I am CHEAP! I buy gas...and groceries...and MANY DVD's..
The same peeps who extol the virtues of HD formats also are the same chumps who download crap vids to a 2 inch phone screen! Or mp3's instead of REAL music on vinyl. NEWEST is not always the best, just convenient....at a price! Go figure.
This proves my point.
For clarification purposes, my point is not to push Blu-ray onto those that do not wish to benefit from it. JRude, you have made it very clear that you are not interested in Blu-ray and you have every right to feel that way. Every single person has the freedom to their own beliefs and consumer habits, as do I and other Blu-ray consumers.
My point here is that those that do not have the right equipment can not pass judgement on what Blu-ray offers quality wise. How can you possibly judge something that you don't own or haven't experienced?
Do you realise that the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, is the same difference between DVD and VCD?
VCD: 352 x 240 (84,480 pixels), Constant Bitrate: 1,150Kbs for video/224Kbs for audio.
DVD: 720 x 480 (345,600 pixels), Max Bitrate: 9,800Kbs.
Blu-ray: 1920 x 1080 (2,073,600 pixels), Max bitrate: 45,000Kbs.
DVD vs. VCD = 4.09 times the resolution & 7.13 times the bitrate.
Blu-ray vs. DVD = 6 times the resolution & 4.59 times the bitrate.
So as you can see Blu-ray actually has a larger leap in resolution when comparing previous digital video technology. The bitrate jump wasn't as great but that could be considered not as essential as h264 & VC-1 are both very efficient codecs.
So those that have say a 19" PC monitor, should compare DVD and VCD on that... As that is basically the same difference that those of us that own larger (42" and up) TV's can see between Blu-ray and DVD.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 17. May 2008 @ 08:46
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plextor05
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17. May 2008 @ 09:06 |
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All that product comparison is ok.
However, the point here is that:
THE VALUE OF AN OBJECT IS HOW MUCH A PERSON IS WILLING TO PAY FOR IT!
If you want prices to be high, then go ahead and buy while they're high. Otherwise, wait until they fall. Who cares whether the corporations "recover their development costs". They're supposed to recover their cost to develop product over a MUCH longer time.
All those folks who stand outside the Best Buy waiting all night to get an X-Box or PSwhatever are the one's who fuel the high prices.
So, thanks so much for that. Enjoy waiting at the gas line, too.
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