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Analyst predicts continued sales slump for Blu-ray in 2008
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 14 May, 2008
At last week's MEDIA-TECH Expo in Frankfurt, Germany, media analyst Richard Cooper of Screen Digest predicted that the struggling US economy will have a major impact on the growth of Blu-ray in 2008. During his presentation on the future of Blu-ray Cooper backed up his assertion with some interesting figures, largely from DVD sales, showing that US households have historically purchase more ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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Senior Member
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17. May 2008 @ 12:24 |
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Being cheap isn?t a virtue and I feel for those that are, life must be miserable. It is also those cheap people that didn?t look at the big picture and got burned with the HD-DVD format, if you want to think of it that way. As long as there are combo drives you will be able to still use any content on HD-DVD so you really haven?t lost and you can always port those to BD down the road.
This is about what people will pay that is always what sales bakes down to. Obviously there are many people willing to pay the price and this is partially to do with going into a store and seeing the real difference HD makes. The average Joe doesn?t need to compare spec?s to see the difference it just jumps out at you when demo?n gear. I have some cheap friends that have made the jump after seeing the amazing picture and sound quality they get from the new gear. And like I did at first (many years ago), they even watch stuff they normally wouldn?t just because it?s in HD. People are still buying/driving big vehicles even though GAS prices are sky rocketing so unfortunately you can?t always use reason on what people will do.
As to companies recouping their R&D costs they always want to recover those costs as quickly as possible and will try to do so that is where the HD-DVD war was good for us even though everyone thought it was a bad thing. This is how it has always been and will always be, unless we go socialistic like it seems we are heading.
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plextor05
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17. May 2008 @ 16:26 |
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My point is that "All that glitters is not gold". You can be impressed with things, but why spend a huge amount of money for if you can wait a year and get it cheaper? I really don't have the time to go after every little thing that comes out for sale.
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JRude
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17. May 2008 @ 16:54 |
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<Do you realise that the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, is the same difference between DVD and VCD? >
poop
Not to the human eye. DVD's don't pixilate, VCD's do..at some point bitrate for bitrate's sake is a marketing ploy. Buy a 60 inch TV and NEED Blu Ray? Ha! I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV! The next format will be 50 Gazillion kb/s ...and SOMEBODY will buy it and extol it's virtues...not me. Of course, it will be DRM'd to HELL & back! Ha haaa!
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Senior Member
5 product reviews
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17. May 2008 @ 17:16 |
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Originally posted by JRude:
DVD's don't pixilate, VCD's do..at some point bitrate for bitrate's sake is a marketing ploy. Buy a 60 inch TV and NEED Blu Ray?
DVD's don't pixelate? Then why is it that everyone that I demonstrate a LCD/Plasma TV to ask me why does it look pixelated (when a DVD is playing on the screen). I then walk them over to where our Blu-ray display is and they say... That's better, that looks so clear. This isn't one Person that I am talking about. This happens on a consistent basis, every single day. For reference, I never try to tell anybody they need Blu-ray as you quoted. After demonstrating the quality, I often don't need to.
Originally posted by JRude:
Ha! I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV!
If you seriously think that an AVI (I am guessing DivX/Xvid) encoded at 1000Kbs looks as good as a DVD on a 60" TV, then I recommend you see an Optometrist. Please don't suggest that I don't know how to encode DivX in the right way to get optimum quality. I am confident that I could teach you some things about video/audio encoding. JRude, no matter what you do... At 1000Kbs, it's never going to look that great on a 60" TV. The only codec that could look acceptable (not great) at that bitrate would be h264.
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JRude
Junior Member
1 product review
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17. May 2008 @ 18:28 |
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It's NOT bitrate but bits per pixel...I HAVE seen an optometrist and do nicely with my trifocals! It's resolution AND bits per pixel! I can make a FINE smaller resolution file with higher bits per pixel. I do not NEED the higher end codec. Anybody can learn something from another. But I am VERY good at what I do. And they DO play very nicely on an 60 inch HD plasma TV screen. If peeps NEED to spend $10,000 on the ''lifestyle'' they have chosen, I'm happy for them. I personally don't see subsidizing SONY and others to keep up with the latest & greatest. A crap flic is a crap flic in ANY format. If I wanted ''WOW'' I would get VISTA CRAPSTA...which I haven't. My hoopty car gets great gas mileage..my DVD's and avi's suffice for one that is not held captive to ''technology'' and high $$$ updates and upgrades. I have better areas to spend my $$$!
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Baccusboy
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1 product review
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17. May 2008 @ 22:10 |
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Sorry, but blu-ray prices are just insane. Prices here in South Korea were out-of-line, and now they've gone UP. We're paying well over $30 average per disc here for new titles. Who is going to pay that? The "cheap" blu-rays are around $22. My wife and I have taken to checking movies out from the local library FOR FREE. They've got shelves of titles, and my Oppo upscales nicely. I used to buy over 10 titles per month during the format war. Now I don't buy much of anything, because the prices are HIGHER! They know what needs to be done to make blu-ray a success -- LOWER PRICES. They are reluctant to do that.
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plextor05
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17. May 2008 @ 23:38 |
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Like I said, the value of an object is what you're willing to pay for it. Nobody wants to pay more for something that doesn't have any more perceived value than what they're used to. And, they don't want some sales hack putting the hard sell on them either.
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Senior Member
5 product reviews
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18. May 2008 @ 06:32 |
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Originally posted by JRude:
It's NOT bitrate but bits per pixel...I HAVE seen an optometrist and do nicely with my trifocals! It's resolution AND bits per pixel! I can make a FINE smaller resolution file with higher bits per pixel.
What are you saying? You initially said that you can encode an AVI at 1000Kbs that looks as good as a DVD, now you are saying it's all about bits per pixel...?? Here's what you said...
Originally posted by JRude:
I can make an .avi file that looks just as good as a DVD vid if I am not viewing it at Madison Square Garden. At a 1,000 kb/s vid rate. And it DOES look good on a 60 inch TV!
So as you can see, you clearly said an AVI encoded at 1000Kbs looks as good as a DVD on a 60" TV.
Originally posted by JRude:
I do not NEED the higher end codec. Anybody can learn something from another. But I am VERY good at what I do.
What do you mean higher end? If you really did know what you were talking about when it comes to video encoding, then you would know that x264 is completely open source.
Originally posted by JRude:
And they DO play very nicely on an 60 inch HD plasma TV screen.
Are you saying that you own a 60" Plasma? Are you really trying to say that AVI's encoded at 1000Kbs look as good as DVD's on a TV that size? I would suggest trying some new specs. Also, you have a 60" Plasma but are suggesting that spending a few hundred dollars on a Blu-ray player is a waste of money and would not compliment your HD TV that you spent thousands on??
Originally posted by JRude:
If peeps NEED to spend $10,000 on the ''lifestyle'' they have chosen, I'm happy for them. I personally don't see subsidizing SONY and others to keep up with the latest & greatest.
What related to Blu-ray costs $10,000? Unless you are talking about a Full HD TV, high end audio equipment and a Blu-ray player. Out of all that equipment that I just mentioned, the Blu-ray player would be the least expensive... So where is your logic?
Originally posted by JRude:
A crap flic is a crap flic in ANY format. If I wanted ''WOW'' I would get VISTA CRAPSTA...which I haven't.
How does Vista relate to the quality of Blu-ray?
Originally posted by JRude:
My hoopty car gets great gas mileage.
I am happy for you. Maybe you could try cycling if you are really looking to save money. You might even benefit from fitness at the same time. Hopefully that can release some of that obvious stress you have.
Originally posted by JRude:
.my DVD's and avi's suffice for one that is not held captive to ''technology'' and high $$$ updates and upgrades. I have better areas to spend my $$$!
We all have choices.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 18. May 2008 @ 08:36
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plextor05
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18. May 2008 @ 10:51 |
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I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre.
Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray.
Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos.
We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else.
By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread.
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JRude
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18. May 2008 @ 14:36 |
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Ryu77 ...I have a 60 inch rear projection OLD TV..works fine..my SON has the plasma 6 footer and refuses to watch anything that pixilates...Statistics are for proving a point...I go by my eyes and the seat of my pants. Hope you are happy with your gear, I am mine! The LAST person I listen to is a salesman...Have a reasonable day...anything else is a gift!
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ripxrush
Junior Member
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25. May 2008 @ 18:27 |
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Originally posted by H0bbes:
They should fire that guy, split up his 6 figure salary and pay a few longtime afterdawn members to do his job from home ;-)
uh maybe 7 figure, 6 figure low end is only 100,000 over 2 people thats only 50,000 each! you could barely rent a 1 room apt here in cali with that!
RusH
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rvinkebob
Member
3 product reviews
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25. May 2008 @ 18:43 |
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Amazing, nobrainer hasn't given a single comment on this. I think he's learning.
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AfterDawn Addict
1 product review
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25. May 2008 @ 18:47 |
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People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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varnull
Suspended permanently
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25. May 2008 @ 19:00 |
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And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself.
I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 25. May 2008 @ 19:03
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Senior Member
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30. May 2008 @ 21:58 |
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Originally posted by iluvendo:
People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.
HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you aren?t at work you?re most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase. I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense does?n always prevail unfortunately.
Originally posted by Varnull:
And FYI.. my 22" FERGUSON crt tv is still making better pictures in it's 29th year than I see on most LCD HD things on display... Yes.. I had to build the a/v inputs myself.
I think most of these HD pricks have never seen a properly set up crt display from the days when they were the dogs. the Mullard PIL tubes were the best. True white, true black and accurate scale tracking from all 3 guns.. something I have yet to see from either a plasma or lcd.
First off I think you and JRude need glasses, you might want to go see an Optometrist sometime soon. HD pricks? How about those overly Cheap pricks? There is NO way your 22? CRT is going to compete with a HD LCD viewed in full HD unless it is a really crappy LCD set. I have a 36? HD CRT that blows all of my LCD/Plasma TV?s away and this is only due to the fact that most older FP?s don?t handle dark scenes well, especially LCD?s. Plasma?s are a little better with dark scenes but Burn-in is a problem as well as life expectancy. When viewing normal content that was produced in HD and viewed on an HD LCD there is no comparison to your extremely old and out dated Ferguson TV, is that an old console set with the turntable/stereo system in it? Too funny? I do have a friend with a 32? SD CRT that is very nice and in some circumstances looks better then the HD FP sets but it still doesn?t compare to a good HD signal on those FP?s, not even close.
Originally posted by plextor05:
I could be wrong, but most folks work for a living without intending to rip off their clients or their community. They have a budget that doesn't include a 60-inch tv, much less a giant home theatre.
Most people are buying 40-42? sets and again it is most likely due to the amount of TV viewing they due and the price that size gives them. If you knew how expensive it was to build a large FP you couldn?t justify you rip off comment but you know ignorance is bliss or is it?
Originally posted by plextor05:
Blue-Ray is intended to be viewed on a large format high-definition output screen. If you don't have one, you don't need blue-ray.
Again wrong, I?ve hooked up a cheap little 7? LCD HD portable to BD and it looks great, better is just better no matter the size.
Originally posted by plextor05:
Some of us poor folks are getting by just fine with a 32 or 40 inch rig without any problems, and many are having a great time with their DVD player and VHS for those legacy movies and home videos.
If you are so d*mn poor how is it you could afford a 40? CRT they certainly are not cheap! Also your username is Plextor so if you have one of those you have spent more there too. Just one more contradiction I see. VHS do they still make those? You don?t need VHS to get old movies I?m a classic movie freak and almost anything I want I can get on DVD very cheap. There are a couple of movies / shows you still can?t get, but not many. I haven?t watched a VHS for probably a decade or better they just look horrible these days and they degrade with time or just get eaten in your player what a crappy format when you think about it.
Originally posted by plextor05:
We don't really have time to burn thinking about what we can buy next, and SONY has an ugly reputation of victimizing it's customers. I'll stick to RCA, Hitachi, Quasar, or anything else.
I really don?t like Sony either and there is very little I will buy from them but their TV?s are excellent, yes they cost a little more but so does Hitachi and Pioneer. The way I look at it is Sony TV?s are better by enough to make the high price tag worth it. They make a 46? LCD FP for $2,500 USD that has the 20K contrast and 120 refresh these TV?s are well worth the price and will blow that old Ferguson out of the water hands down.
Originally posted by plextor05:
By the way, I didn't check the box that says, "Check this box, if you want to get email notifications when new messages are added to this thread." But I keep getting bugged about this lame thread.
Wakeup it is automatically checked you need to uncheck it. The lights are on but nobodies home apparently.
In Summation
I?m a bang for the buck person, not a cheap prick or a foolish need to spend 10x the price guy just to have the most current stuff. Everyone has their own choice as to what is best for them but you can?t argue that old TV is better than the new digital standards, it just doesn?t hold up. So if 8 track tapes or the old windup RCA phono players are your thing good for you but you can?t knock people who like state of the art technology, unless you are jealous however and then you really have no point.
Ryu77
As always you?ve done a really good job on this thread keep up the good work. You do know that some of these people will never get it though and I sure don?t need to point them out or wait a minute maybe I have. :)
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30. May 2008 @ 22:10
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 22:09 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
People, we're in a recession. We do not need high def each day. But we do need gas,food, and a roof over our heads. These things comes first. All else is secondary.
HD is still selling even though we are in a recession and this maybe in part due to the amount of TV we all watch. If you aren?t at work you?re most likely watching TV. And again when people see how sharp HD is they are willing to scrap by and make that big buck purchase. Quote:
I know people who keep gambling every week, complain about being broke always, but still go back to the casinos so common sense does?n always prevail unfortunately.
Mr Movies, addiction is not the same thing.
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .
What do you think the public would choose and why ?
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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Senior Member
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30. May 2008 @ 22:16 |
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Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .
What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn?t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren?t you!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30. May 2008 @ 22:17
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 22:24 |
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Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .
What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn?t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren?t you!
But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary.
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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Senior Member
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30. May 2008 @ 22:30 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by Iluvendo:
As for your opinion as people will scrape by to purchase a HD big screen, let's pretend. I'll give you a big screen for 2 weeks, top of the line. In exchange, you only get air to breathe and water to drink, no food for 2 weeks. Whereas for the rest of the masses get (3 squares a day) regular food and only a 20 inch CRT for 2 weeks (no cable, just rabbit ears) .
What do you think the public would choose and why ?
Now you are really getting ridiculous this isn?t a choice between breathing and drinking water so if that is your strongest argument you really need a new life. Wow you are really out there aren?t you!
But you made the direct point of gambling over all else as your point of contention. So I felt a cooresponding counterpoint was necessary.
If you properly read it, it was a point that people do crazy things and aren't always predictable or do they make good choices when it comes to money or many other things in life.
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 22:42 |
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Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.
Would you say we are in agreement ?
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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Senior Member
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30. May 2008 @ 22:48 |
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Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.
Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.
What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BD?s raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 30. May 2008 @ 23:03
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 22:57 |
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Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.
Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.
I see H2 Hummers on the streets, but as regular gas is over $4/gal, I see less and less each day. I drive a Toyota Camry 4 cyl and get 33 mpg. You are correct dummies abound.
The joke is "God must love stupid people, otherwise he would'nt made so many of them"
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 23:05 |
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Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
Mr-Movies, I agree that many people make poor choices. I further say that a vast majority of people (>80%) make sensible choices. This is why I make my opening statement that necessities prevail over the luxuries in a recessionary period. But when the good times come again, let the HD big screen purchases start.
Would you say we are in agreement ?
I would like to agree but HD sales and the fact that people continue to drive big gas guzzling vechicals says that isn't entirely true. So I don't think 80% of us are always sensible unfortunately, almost the oppisite.
Quote:
What I will agree with is we all should be sensible and not try to live beyond our means. Also when products like BD?s raise their prices because now they have a monopoly people should stop buying their product in order to force them from gouging us
.
You sound like a Libertarian, my kinda guy!
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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Senior Member
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30. May 2008 @ 23:10 |
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That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry.
And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :)
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AfterDawn Addict
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30. May 2008 @ 23:14 |
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Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
That Toyota is a great car I have a friend that is going to get one as they are getting rid of their Mercedes, you can't go wrong with the Camry.
And yes I am a Libertarian you have a good day iluvendo. :)
You have a good day/night too Mr-Movies !!
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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