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US HDTV owners don't want Blu-ray
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 3 June, 2008
According to an NPD report, only 9 percent of US HDTV owners plan to buy a Blu-ray disc player in the next six months.
The survey by NPD was carried out in the middle of March, after Blu-ray killed off the rival HD DVD format. Although sentiments may have changed in the months since the survey was taken, I would assume the numbers are still pretty accurate, considering reports of Blu-ray ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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tripplite
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3. June 2008 @ 16:51 |
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heretics !!!1 kill the non-believers!!!!
BD-R alllll the way:)
whats this? you can't afford a BD-R player??? well tough luck.....the BD-R community is for the elite of society only.....
......come on im just playing around......its a nobrainer!!! har...har...
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AfterDawn Addict
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3. June 2008 @ 16:52 |
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Quote:
Most of the people surveyed also noted that they were more than happy with DVD picture quality and HD upscaling and that for now, Blu-ray was simply not worth it
.
Majority of people are happy with sd dvd or upconverted dvd
So Toshiba may just be correct with their Super def 960 dvd (if they can get the price right)
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However, of the people surveyed who had already bought into Blu-ray, 80 percent said their next purchases will be BDs rather than DVDs. Picture quality was the main reasoning behind that.
High def (BD and HD DVD) may turn out to be a niche market
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eatsushi
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3. June 2008 @ 17:09 |
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Quote:
The survey also showed that about 40 million US homes have at least one HDTV and that 9 percent amounts to a lowly 3.6 million units.
3.6 Million for a format that's only 2 years old this year is actually a good number.
Consider this:
The US installed base of DVD video players the 1st few years after launch:
Quote:
1997 - 0.2 million
1998 - 0.7 million
1999 - 1.4 million
2000 - 2.3 million
2001 - 3.6 million
The installed base of DVD video players will grow at a snail's pace through 2001, trailing the penetration of DVD drives in personal computers, predicts a Yankee Group study entitled "DVD: A Format Under Fire."
The report blames consumer confusion over formats for the stunted home digital video player market.
DVD and BluRay - "It's deja vu all over again."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080603/latu076.html?.v=101
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 17:11
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3. June 2008 @ 17:10 |
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Quote:
NPD added that only 45 percent of HDTV owners had even heard of Blu-ray or HD DVD meaning that 22 million HDTV owners were not even familiar with HD optical formats.
People are going to say no to a format thats still new & cost is still high but what do you expect them to say if they don't know what the hell they are buying.Let not forget it took DVD 3 years to reach mass market because of high prices.BDA has granted licenses to Chinese manufacturers this is going to be huge for year three because right now if you compare Blu-Ray growth to DVD in year two Blu-Ray clearly has a major advantage.DVD had no growth for three years & people said the same thing then that they didn't want DVD i expect to see the same thing to happen with Blu-Ray.Consumer not going to have much a choice if the industry make the shift like they did with DVD customers had no choice but to move to DVD.How little people forget this.
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Senior Member
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3. June 2008 @ 17:44 |
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The US market doesn't care about quality they just care about trendy crap and that's why they're all getting LCD tv's. They could care less what media they put through it as long as they can say they have an HDTV.
Besides that they're just surveying pre-existing HDTV owners who haven't yet gotten a bluray player, meaning they're just asking people who obviously already have no interest in the HD media feeds (or are still HD-DVD loyal for whatever reason); if they took a less restricted survey the results would be higher.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 17:47
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AfterDawn Addict
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3. June 2008 @ 17:48 |
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Or, Toshiba may just have given sd dvd a new lease on life with super def dvd 960. People already have the software (and new software dvd are just $15 ea), so if Toshiba can get the price right on the players, it may just give BD a real run for the money.
OK,OK
no True dolby
no True DTS
but seriously, how many of us have DTS decoders and a high quality enough surround sound system to really realize the higher quality encoded sound?
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
 This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 17:50
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ematrix
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3. June 2008 @ 18:01 |
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Totally agree with you iluvendo, also I have to point that the numbers provided by eatsushi were predictions made back in January 1998, which don't reflect the actual household penetration DVD had from 1999-2001, which was actually much larger than that.
In 1999 DVD's household penetration in U.S. homes alone was 3.550 million players (not 1.4 million as that article states) and by 2001 DVD's household penetration in U.S. homes was 16.662 million players (not 3.6 million)
Also note that VCR hardware penetration (VHS) in U.S. homes wasn't as high as DVD currently is, since in 2003 it reached its highest of 97 million U.S. households, meaning that back in 1997 VHS U.S. household penetration was lower than in 2003. In the other hand DVD hardware penetration in 2007 was 229 million in U.S. homes alone, meaning that roughly every house in U.S. has a DVD player at home.
Taking into consideration these numbers, you realize that DVD had a much larger U.S. household penetration, than Blu-ray is having currently, despite the fact that more people own HDTV sets than before in U.S.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 20:10
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Newbie
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3. June 2008 @ 18:23 |
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If people dont want blu-ray which is significanly better than DVD what makes people think they will want Toshiba's super def DVD?
Secondly how many consumers do you think will actually know about Toshiba's super def DVD? Hardly any consumers know about blu-ray as the article shows! With a format so close to dvd its probably going to pass consumers by!
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error5
Senior Member
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3. June 2008 @ 18:32 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
Totally agree with you iluvendo, also I have to point that the numbers provided by eatsushi were predictions made back in January 1998, which don't reflect the actual household prenetration DVD had from 1999-2001, which is actually much larger than that.
In 1999 DVD's household penetration in US homes alone was 3.550 million players (not 1.4 million as that article states) and by 2001 DVD's household penetration in US homes was 16.662 million players (not 3.6 million)
True, but the news item is also a prediction based on a survey.
Also note that for DVD you didn't have to upgrade your display. Each and every person who owned a TV was in the potential market pool. The potential market for BluRay is much smaller due to the HDTV requirement. So based on the figures you brought up you could say that adoption is going faster for BluRay:
1999 - 3.55 million players (2 years from launch)
2008 - 3.6 million units estimated (also 2 years from launch)
Panasonic PT-AE3000 1080p Projector//Carada 110" Criterion High Contrast Grey 16:9 Screen//Oppo BDP-83SE//Toshiba HD-XA2
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ematrix
Junior Member
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3. June 2008 @ 18:53 |
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No, it actually going slower despite the fact that more people now own HDTV sets than before, as reported by NPD. You should read my previous post and you'll realize, that even so consumers weren't required to upgrade their TV sets in order to upgrade from VHS to DVD, the fact is that VHS hardware penetration was less than half, even at it's higgest point, than the current DVD hardware penetration.
Also those numbers provided by eatsushi came from an 1998 article, and they were predictions, not actual facts; while my numbers came from actual sales numbers on surveys provided by leading market research companies, such as DEG and NPD.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 20:09
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juankerr
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3. June 2008 @ 18:58 |
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This is the text of the actual NPD report:
The NPD Group: Consumer Awareness and Potential for Blu-ray Disc Devices Rising
Quote:
According to The NPD Group, a leading market research company, 45 percent of HDTV owners in the U.S. now claim to be familiar with Blu-ray Disc (BD), up from 35 percent in June 2007. And, while only 6 percent of all consumers surveyed said they plan to purchase a BD device in the next six months, NPD found purchase intent to be higher among the growing population of HDTV owners, boding well for the future of the format.
NPD?s ?2008 Blu-ray Disc Report? reveals that 9 percent of HDTV owners plan to buy a BD-capable player in the next six months. ?With HDTVs now in approximately 40 million US households, that percentage translates to a pool of almost 4 million potential BD player buyers,? according to Russ Crupnick, entertainment industry analyst for NPD.
Like error5, pointed out - the 3.6 million US estimate for BluRay actually mirrors the number for DVD's second year.
It's also possible that the current sales push from Walmart could also increase the numbers in a new poll.
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juankerr
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3. June 2008 @ 19:12 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
No, it actually going slower despite the fact that more people now own HDTV sets than before, as reported by NPD. You should read my previous post and you'll realize, that even so consumers weren't required to upgrade their TV sets in order to upgrade from VHS to DVD, the fact is that VHS household penetration was less than half, even at it's higgest point, than the current DVD household penetration.
What error5 was doing was comparing household penetration 2 years into the format's lifespan:
DVD - 1999 - 3.55 million - actual numbers from you.
BD - 2008 - 3.6 million - estimated from the NPD survey.
Even though you're comparing actual numbers to estimates you can see how people can conclude that Bluray isn't doing too bad. (see NPD's actual text in my post above.)
Quote:
Also those numbers provided by eatsushi came from an 1998 article, and they were predictions, not actual facts; while my numbers came from actual sales numbers on surveys provided by DEG.
Actually, I understand eatsushi's point. I think he's trying to say that the predictions ten years apart are very similar:
1998: DVD adoption is going slow
2008: BluRay adoption is going slow
...thus the "deja vu" comment.
(Right eatsushi??)
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3. June 2008 @ 19:42 |
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Originally posted by juankerr:
It's also possible that the current sales push from Walmart could also increase the numbers in a new poll.
I notice this like a week ago at my Wal-Mart they have a Sony 1080p LCD hooked up to a Blu-Ray player & a dvd player hooked into the other side it spit screen to show the differents between the two with the same movie playing at the same time its a very nice setup by wal-mart.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 19:43
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ematrix
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3. June 2008 @ 19:50 |
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Juankerr, it's actually shows that Blu-ray it's going to have a harder time than DVD had a decade ago. Internationally, Blu-ray still has a lot further to go than it does in the United States. But was the article states is that less than a tenth of current U.S. homes that own a HDTV are considering getting Blu-ray, but most of the people surveyed expressed that they were more than happy with upscaling DVD and that for now, Blu-ray was simply not worth it.
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AfterDawn Addict
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3. June 2008 @ 19:51 |
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Originally posted by NexGen76:
Originally posted by juankerr:
It's also possible that the current sales push from Walmart could also increase the numbers in a new poll.
I notice this like a week ago at my Wal-Mart they have a Sony 1080p LCD hooked up to a Blu-Ray player & a dvd player hooked into the other side it spit screen to show the differents between the two with the same movie playing at the same time its a very nice setup by wal-mart.
Question, is this this really Wal mart advertising a new product (to them), or is it that Wal Mart is doing this because of contractual obligations to the BD consortium ?
Please no laughing, afterall both Toshiba and Sony tried to buy off the movie studios.
"The flimsier the product,the higher the price"
Ferengi 82nd rule of aqusition
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juankerr
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3. June 2008 @ 19:58 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
Juankerr, it's actually shows that Blu-ray it's going to have a harder time than DVD had a decade ago. Internationally, Blu-ray still has a lot further to go than it does in the United States.
True. That's why the article further states:
Quote:
?The door is open for studios to feed the consumer?s appetite for Blu-ray content, and we expect sales to increase, as prices for hardware and software moderate in the coming months,? Crupnick said. ?Even so it will take a concerted effort by manufacturers and retailers to ratchet awareness even further and convince all of those potential buyers of the superiority of Blu-ray Disc versus standard DVD.?
It's an uphill climb but the numbers so far are encouraging and the BDA's marketing machine is working full time:
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14343.cfm
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SProdigy
Senior Member
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3. June 2008 @ 19:59 |
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Quote:
I notice this like a week ago at my Wal-Mart they have a Sony 1080p LCD hooked up to a Blu-Ray player & a dvd player hooked into the other side it spit screen to show the differents between the two with the same movie playing at the same time its a very nice setup by wal-mart.
Haha, I haven't seen this, but I do notice that Wal-Mart (and it's sister company Sam's Club) have HDTV displays, running content off of standard RCA cables! Typically it's only a new release DVD running, and it doesn't make a great argument for the displays. The best display I've seen is a PS3 running on a 1080p Sony display, though it was still using component cables!
The HDTV requirement will slow the growth of Blu-Ray, and because of it, DVD will continue to survive. Keep in mind, most households only needed to ditch their VCR and replace it with a DVD player a few years back. DVD's offered advantages akin to CD's, where you could instantly fast forward or rewind, plus DVD's take up less shelf space, which is critical to retailers as well as consumers.
If Blu-Ray can match the cost of DVD, then it should become a no brainer for HDTV owners. This is one spot HD-DVD had an advantage with using combo discs, which could be used in HD-DVD or DVD players. As it stands, most households only have 1 HDTV, so they would be purchasing a $25-30 BR disc to play in only one room of the house. I think this is the biggest disadvantage, and will be the reason why I will shy away from BR until prices drop to DVD-like levels.
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juankerr
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3. June 2008 @ 20:07 |
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Originally posted by iluvendo:
Question, is this this really Wal mart advertising a new product (to them), or is it that Wal Mart is doing this because of contractual obligations to the BD consortium ?
Retail stores never give away special displays or endcaps. The product manufacturers pay for these.
BluRay endcaps and HDTV demos like the ones that you see at Walmart were paid for by the BD companies the same way that you pay for advertising. It's part of their promotional budget.
Added: Starting this weekend Walmart will give a $100 store gift card for any purchase of a BluRay player including the PS3. The Maganvox would practically cost you $198. If you predicted a sub $200 player this early in 2008 I would not have believed you.
Walmart's Father's Day BluRay Promotion
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 20:17
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3. June 2008 @ 20:34 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by iluvendo:
Question, is this this really Wal mart advertising a new product (to them), or is it that Wal Mart is doing this because of contractual obligations to the BD consortium ?
Retail stores never give away special displays or endcaps. The product manufacturers pay for these.
BluRay endcaps and HDTV demos like the ones that you see at Walmart were paid for by the BD companies the same way that you pay for advertising. It's part of their promotional budget.
Added: Starting this weekend Walmart will give a $100 store gift card for any purchase of a BluRay player including the PS3. The Maganvox would practically cost you $198. If you predicted a sub $200 player this early in 2008 I would not have believed you.
Walmart's Father's Day BluRay Promotion
How will they issues the 100 dollar gift card by mail or in store? I would love to pickup a second PS3 for 299.
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juankerr
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3. June 2008 @ 20:37 |
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Originally posted by NexGen76:
How will they issues the 100 dollar gift card by mail or in store? I would love to pickup a second PS3 for 299.
Info from hddigest: the card is given to you at checkout and can be used right away.
Note: the PS3 promo started last weekend and is now extended to all BD players. You better hurry since a lot of posters reported that stocks were being depleted rapidly.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 3. June 2008 @ 20:39
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fgamer
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3. June 2008 @ 20:54 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by NexGen76:
How will they issues the 100 dollar gift card by mail or in store? I would love to pickup a second PS3 for 299.
Info from hddigest: the card is given to you at checkout and can be used right away.
Note: the PS3 promo started last weekend and is now extended to all BD players. You better hurry since a lot of posters reported that stocks were being depleted rapidly.
Will the PS3 still be under the $100 dollar gift card deal when they start the $100 giftcard Blu-ray player offer June 8-14TH?
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ematrix
Junior Member
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3. June 2008 @ 21:06 |
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Originally posted by SProdigy:
The HDTV requirement will slow the growth of Blu-Ray, and because of it, DVD will continue to survive. Keep in mind, most households only needed to ditch their VCR and replace it with a DVD player a few years back. DVD's offered advantages akin to CD's, where you could instantly fast forward or rewind, plus DVD's take up less shelf space, which is critical to retailers as well as consumers.
If Blu-Ray can match the cost of DVD, then it should become a no brainer for HDTV owners. This is one spot HD-DVD had an advantage with using combo discs, which could be used in HD-DVD or DVD players. As it stands, most households only have 1 HDTV, so they would be purchasing a $25-30 BR disc to play in only one room of the house. I think this is the biggest disadvantage, and will be the reason why I will shy away from BR until prices drop to DVD-like levels.
Indeed HDTV requirement is slowing the growth of Blu-ray, and even so hasn't incouraged many HDTV owners to get Blu-ray, as the article states. Most U.S. households only have one HDTV set, and most of them are content with upscaling DVD, as well as those that can't afford or are unwilling to upgrade their equipment and movies.
But you mentioned the valid advantage of combo discs that Blu-ray has been reluctant to consider, which would benefit them in growing Blu-ray faster into consumer's acceptance, as well as manufactures, distributors and retail stores, since it will reduce production, distribution and storage costs, as well as increase sells of one sole edition that contained SD and HD (DVD and BD) versions of the film.
Combo discs would also benefit consumers greatly, since rather than buying SD and HD versions of the movie separatelly, you could get one sole edition knowing that you can play the movie on your DVD player and CRT TV, and by the time you finally buy a Blu-ray player and HDTV set, you already have the Blu-ray version.
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Saber9
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3. June 2008 @ 23:27 |
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To me DVD is already obsolite. If it isn't on Blu ray it doesn't exist to me.
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4. June 2008 @ 01:04 |
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Gee, where have I heard this before?
Oh, right. Just from...EVERYONE!
Sony blew it with their price gouging.
I'm waiting for the next big thing and so are all the people I know who weren't foolish enough to buy into Blu Ray.
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juankerr
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4. June 2008 @ 08:36 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
Combo discs would also benefit consumers greatly, since rather than buying SD and HD versions of the movie separatelly, you could get one sole edition knowing that you can play the movie on your DVD player and CRT TV, and by the time you finally buy a Blu-ray player and HDTV set, you already have the Blu-ray version.
JVC developed the DVD/BD combo disc but IIRC manufacturing problems prevented it from gaining ground.
The problems with the DVD/HD DVD combo format were also a big issue:
Commentary: Combo Discs - What Went Wrong?
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Quite simply, Combo discs are killing HD DVD. It's time to move past them. Consumers don't need them and certainly don't want to pay extra for them, only to find the discs seizing up in their players when they try to watch their newly-purchased movies. I am hereby officially pleading to the studios to give up this foolish scheme and make all future HD DVDs, whether new releases or catalog titles, just HD DVDs, without the Combo burden. Everyone will truly be better off if you do.
Originally posted by mspurloc:
I'm waiting for the next big thing and so are all the people I know who weren't foolish enough to buy into Blu Ray.
I just don't get this logic. If price is the issue, how sure are you that "the next big thing" will be inexpensive?
All new technology is expensive. There's years of research and development costs to recoup. I'm sure "the next best thing" will be out of reach to the general public cost-wise for at least several years after launch.
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