I've had an Xbox 360 since December of 2007, I had used backups while connected to Xbox Live (long before ANY ban wave) for a couple of months. I disconnected the console from the internet about a month before that spring update was available in 2007 (the one that brought the fist ban wave) and never connected the console to the internet again.
The dashboard got updated tough, by playing recent games that forced me to update it before being able to play the actual games.
The console recently died on me, so I bought a replacement and transferred my saves, profile, and arcade games from one HD to the other.
I connected this new console to Live and was able to download demos, videos, play online, etc.
However, when I try to play my arcade games whilst not connected to Live, I am only able to play the trial version of them, I believe the solution is to transfer the license to the new console, but, is it safe?
The old Xbox was never actually banned, maybe because it never got connected, but maybe it was never going to be banned.
How safe is for me to transfer the license to the new Xbox?
Yes its safe, its only the console that get banned. You live account will be good to go. Even if you did get banned on your previous console, you would still be OK.
Yeah, I already copied the Profile/Account from one console to the other, I was wondering about the Licenses (to be able to play Arcade games offline), for the sole fact that when I go to Xbox.com to transfer the licenses, my 2 Xboxes serial numbers appear on the screen, that's my main concern.