Originally posted by xnonsuchx:

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One problem is that piracy estimates (at least for losses to industry) assume every instance of piracy is a lost legit sale, when it's more like 75-90% of of people who pirate stuff would have never paid otherwise.

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Originally posted by VENOM79:

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your right im part of the 30 percent , and i would never pay anymore for this stuff , i used to pay all the time when i was a kid, all the crapy movies i'd buy a whole cd to get one song i'd buy a video game to beat it in 7 hours, well now its my time to get it all back and then some, they want me to stop downloading this fine make QUALITY movies , songs ,games and sale them at a fair price, not this crap where you have to budget for these items, its entertainment not a cure for cancer.

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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No you think? All piracy numbers are made up you either believe in the general range or you do not.

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Quote:

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I say 30% of all consumption is sharing, downloading and bootlegs. Illicit sale only makes up 1/3rd of that and I am talking world wide scale here, the rest is information sharing of some kind.

What we need to do is focus on illicit profit derived from the flow of information instead of distribution and copies.

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Originally posted by Jose_X:

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http://www.freesoftwaremagazine.com/columns/interview_nina_paley_author_Sita_Sings_the_Blues_and_two_Minute+Meme+animations

http://www.againstmonopoly.org/index.php?perm=593056000000002845

Of course, the horribly broken and unfair patent system is becoming another significant problem because, since copyright is not strong enough apparently, the unethical and greediest among us have been exploiting patents to gain monopolies on not just works they created but on ideas that impact a great many works that hardly resemble their so called ("nonobvious") "inventions". And they are starting to get bolder and bolder about seeking enforcement, even against small entities.

I hope more people become acquainted with the problems in the patent system. If not, patents will be used to effectively prevent a great many copyright works from even existing in the first place. Our US patent system is that broken.. and is one reason (via gene and drug patent monopolies) why health care costs have gone up so much in these last few decades. These monopolists benefit from technology growth and science that came from society and then exploit the 20 year super monopoly government subsidy that is given to the first that rings the patent office's doorbell no matter how many others were near making the same or improved but related discovery or had made it already but had not sought a patent fast enough.

Patent authors that enforce are leeches. And the patent system completely spits at all the innovation done by those that don't have the money, sophistication, or sleaziness to take out "process" patents (eg, most open source software developers).

Hopefully, the court cases in the pipeline will help fix this situation somewhat, but it seems Congress is just waiting for the court rulings to then try to add back anything the courts strike down.

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Originally posted by vurbal:

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Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

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No you think? All piracy numbers are made up you either believe in the general range or you do not.

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Estimates of piracy aren't actually that hard to come by. What's more difficult to establish is the conversion rate. If eliminating the unauthorized content doesn't result in an authorized sale you can't legitimately count it as a loss.

Quote:

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I say 30% of all consumption is sharing, downloading and bootlegs. Illicit sale only makes up 1/3rd of that and I am talking world wide scale here, the rest is information sharing of some kind.

What we need to do is focus on illicit profit derived from the flow of information instead of distribution and copies.

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I think a better response to claims of piracy losses is to simply examine home entertainment spending over the last few years and analyze how much there is and what people are buying. In 2004 DVD revenue (sales and rental) and DVD player revenue in the US both peaked. Total revenue from home video sales/rental, DVD player sales, recorded music sales, video game sales, and game console sales were about $84 billion. 5 years later they were about $81 billion even though DVD player sales alone fell more than $10 billion. During that period, the Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 were all introduced. And that doesn't count the spending in movie theaters or on mobile phones, internet service, live music, or some game revenue such as subscription games like WoW or game rentals, all of which increased during the same period. If you include them I'm sure you'd end up with a net increase.

In other words the effect of piracy on the economy is negligible. What has happened is a series of spending shifts, which are completely predictable. Going back to the 1990's, in the middle of the decade saturation of catalog titles resulted in a slow stagnation of CD sales. This was happening before Napster ever existed. In 1999, when Napster appeared, the CD's days were already numbered. By 2008 the labels were seeing record numbers of sales. They just happened to be smaller sales than they were used to. Ironically they could probably solve all their problems by simply lowering prices to about 10% - 25% of what they are now and get back to the days of making money hand over fist. The only losses they have are from a poor understanding of economics and an addiction to government mandated monopoly powers.

Starting in 1999 DVD sales took off. Just like the labels with CDs, the studios made a lot of money selling catalog titles. Also like the CD, DVD sales eventually plateaued as the market was saturated. From 2004 on there's a trend toward new releases dominating the market. This also results in fewer sales but more rentals. The studios didn't get the boost they expected from Blu-ray because most people aren't looking to upgrade their existing collections to the new format when they're still happy with DVD. Once again like the record labels, the studios are under the mistaken impression they can dictate what the next mainstream format will be. They opted for Blu-ray. Consumers are slowly opting for internet provided (downloaded or streamed) video. Blu-ray will never be as big a success as DVD and it's unrealistic to expect that. DVD was a unique phenomena which you can't just repeat at will.

In 2000 and 2001 the PS2 and original Xbox were released, effectively reinventing the console gaming industry in more of a generic home entertainment mold. Sales steadily increased for a few years and then exploded in 2007 when the Wii was introduced. Right now gaming is the hot market, and with all the new smartphones being introduced you can expect that trend to continue for a while.

The only real piracy losses you can distinctly identify are from big criminal syndicates who sell large quantities of unauthorized DVDs and CDs. Those operations are already the target of law enforcement efforts, and can be handled more effectively using organized crime statutes rather than IP law. Including them in a report on piracy losses is fine, but it's not significant if you're looking at what more should be done from a copyright protection POV.

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Originally posted by editmon:

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Well ... since the government seems to like making up "creditable" information about individual citizens crimes, I should be able to do the same about corporations.
My information reports that their are more senators than you can count on your hands driving new cars to their $3 million dollar homes because of under table deals or by motivation from "PACs". You known what a "PAC" is right? "Pirates Abolishing the Constitution" They are the strong arm of powerful corporations that our government allows to vote as a single entity to sway laws that keep individual citizens "in their place". "PACs" are made up of people who once worked at places like oh, the "RIAA & BSA". You know butt kissers who make a lot of money duping "government officials" into believing whatever comes out of their mouths. I wouldn't put it past them to be trying the same with elected judges but I would not want to be put on the record as saying that comment has any truth. I am just voicing a concern. :)
My information comes from a reliable source just like the "BSA", from my a$$.

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