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Seagate: HDD prices cannot go down until end of 2012
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 17 November, 2011
Seagate CEO Stephen Luczo has some bad news for anyone in need of a new hard drive - prices will stay inflated until at least the end of next year.
Due to the flooding in Thailand, which has left 13 million people homeless and a significant amount of factories with over 3 feet of water, hard drive prices have soared 20 percent in the last month.
Says the CEO:
This is going to take ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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marnie
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18. November 2011 @ 16:33 |
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Not such a good idea to have your production in the Far East then? Best build your factories in the UK!
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Staff Member
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18. November 2011 @ 16:40 |
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Originally posted by marnie:
Not such a good idea to have your production in the Far East then? Best build your factories in the UK!
At 100 times the price lol Also, I'm quite sure being an island means the UK could be prone to flooding, as well :p
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marnie
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18. November 2011 @ 17:05 |
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Originally posted by DVDBack23:
Originally posted by marnie:
Not such a good idea to have your production in the Far East then? Best build your factories in the UK!
At 100 times the price lol Also, I'm quite sure being an island means the UK could be prone to flooding, as well :p
I think the UK could make a 1TB drive for less than £6000. ;-)
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plazma247
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18. November 2011 @ 17:09 |
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I think this article from yesterday throws a little more light onto the matter link
@dali, if one thing time has taught me dont scoff at anything in the land of tech, i can remember the days when 1gb was an impossible number and then 1tb was so big it would blow you mind... 1pb will come (who knows when i was only quoting sources) and the fact a number of sources confirm that its suppose to be potentially viable and being worked on is a pretty good start.
And there is also this link
:)
@marnie, lol a plant in the uk could probably do it for £10, its just the £5990 tax that would make it £6000 lol
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 18. November 2011 @ 17:11
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Staff Member
4 product reviews
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18. November 2011 @ 17:17 |
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Originally posted by plazma247:
@marnie, lol a plant in the uk could probably do it for £10, its just the £5990 tax that would make it £6000 lol
Exactly right lol And overhead for a Western European factory would be astronomical compared to Thailand.
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polarys42
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19. November 2011 @ 00:52 |
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Originally posted by Mez:
My only question is how many millions the CEO is making on his bonus.
He only makes that bonus if people buy the companies product. That's true for any company. People just don't get it, you buy a companies product, your supporting how that company is run.
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19. November 2011 @ 02:17 |
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@plazma, my first HD was HUGE (and, therefore, extremely expensive) for its time, 80 MB in early 1991. 1 GB was science-fiction back then. I managed to buy an ultra-expensive 1 GB drive about 6 years later. That is, 6 years for achieving 12 times the capacity. Now, you're talking about multiplying the current standard capacity more than 300 times. How long do you think that's gonna take, seriously?
Of course we'll see cheap 1 PB drives and laugh at the times on which we thought 1 TB was so much... If we live enough! I'm quite sure that won't happen in 2 years, nor it will in 5. I insist: If you don't agree, please feel free to place a bet against me... ;)
"You know, it seems that quotes on the internet are becoming less and less reliable." -Abraham Lincoln.
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AfterDawn Addict
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19. November 2011 @ 03:34 |
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Originally posted by marnie:
Originally posted by DVDBack23:
Originally posted by marnie:
Not such a good idea to have your production in the Far East then? Best build your factories in the UK!
At 100 times the price lol Also, I'm quite sure being an island means the UK could be prone to flooding, as well :p
I think the UK could make a 1TB drive for less than £6000. ;-)
Based on what I have seen of british cars, no hard disk made there would be able to spin without tearing itself apart...but based on the cliffs of dover, flooding does seem unlikely.
Mexico seems like a good place...it never floods in central Mexico, the labor is cheap, and the electricity is reasonably reliable.
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plazma247
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19. November 2011 @ 11:01 |
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@dali my first hard disk was the original Winchester ibm 10 meg ;) my first video card / display had a 1 colour mono output.
Now we have TB an increase over my original hard disk drive of 104857.6 times in size.. if it helps 1024 is the golden rule 300 times is a little short..
Regarding the display now i sit behind screens capable of well over a billion colours @ 32bit
Im not sure how long its going to take, but with nano tech coming forwards and leaps and bounds im really sure it wont take that long, its not like Pb drives (arrays) don't already exists. As for a single Pb drive... i don't bet its a fools game, but when you have more then one possible way to archive it, it looks optimistic to be sooner rather than later.
And forgetting a single drive for the second and maybe considering the array again, if I were to populated my home server with today's biggest drives to full capacity I would have 1/21th of Pb, so to have a Pd array at home I only actually need a 21x increase in size ;) either that or get a bigger case lol.
@ killer, lol you say that and then link some parts of the uk have a pretty good history of flooding lol.
Back on topic, has anyone looked at any of the catalogue shops whos prices are normally fixed for the season, in the uks cases argos, lol external hard disk went out of stock pretty quickly... now if you look on ebay many of them are being sold at inflated prices. There is one great seller telling people seagate expansion has a SATA3 Drive, where as far as im aware they only ever fitted SATA2 drives. They are suggesting people crack the external box open to get a cheap internal drive... although they also neglect to mention doing so will render the warranty completely useless as you can only rma the drive in the external box and not on its own lol.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 19. November 2011 @ 11:02
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19. November 2011 @ 12:24 |
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@plazma, I just did the maths and found out that I have one 66th of a PB myself (something around 15 TB), lol.
Anyway, the technological boost that you are depicting happened after over 20 years. What about RAM? My first computer had 4 MB. 20 years later, my current desktop has 4 GB. That's a 1024 (2^10) times increase of the capacity after 20 years, exactly the same math I used to predict when a hypotetical PB single drive would come out... Which won't be soon, because it's physically impossible.
This article may be worth a look: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder
"You know, it seems that quotes on the internet are becoming less and less reliable." -Abraham Lincoln.
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AfterDawn Addict
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19. November 2011 @ 12:46 |
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LOL! One cannot dictate innovation.
Dvd's are rather impressive when you think about it. Blu-Ray disc has surpassed that technology. VERY impressive. And now they can add more layers to that technology.
Have you ever heard of HVD? Holographic versatile disc? Over 1Tb on an optical media.
I suspect a technology, is right under our nose.
Not really suggesting that Optical storage is the future, because quite frankly I find it appalling. A tiny flake/speck of whatever, and the eye/laser is mucked up. But I still find it impressive.
We are still in our infancy. We have so much to learn... :p
Impossible is not a word I use very often. A human defying gravity like superman? Yah, that's probably impossible LOL!
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19. November 2011 @ 13:14 |
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Originally posted by Mr-Movies:
Actually they do think with a boner and I believe that is true here.
Silly me... They did indeed (the BP, representing the oil companies) did absolutely nickel & dime the safety features so poorly in that last disaster that they thought they would get all the oil out of the ground & be gone before the line failed didn't they?
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plazma247
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19. November 2011 @ 13:18 |
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@ DALi
Im well aware of Kryders law, which is calculated from averages.
Extending this and basing off the average predicts 1Pb around 2025, however assuming there was another leap forward in drive technology before then and after a another period of small increases to pull the average back down, has this not always been the way. This means the average rule was still adhered to surely and one high figure was pull back down by the preceding and less exaggerated following numbers..? If so this therefore predicts its more then likely a Pb drive would likely be around the predicted date of 2025 how ever its also very like to fall in the next say the next 6 - 8 years based roughly on the idea you would have period of faster growth and then slower growth after the inception of the initial advance... but who knows..!
Although going back to your original prediction of 17 years (2029) time, Kryders law predicts based from the average 13 years (2025), but as ive illustrated its possible it could come before as there is likely to be a period of smaller growth afterwards... Having said that it could be we come very close say for example to say 600TB-800TB region and get stuck around that for a fair while before the Pb barrier is finally crossed and then it would fall closer to your prediction. But like i said im not a betting man.
@LordRuss
:) not that im defending BP far far from it, but in the case of the last big disaster i don't think haliburton staff going on a bender and pouring seawater into the bore helped lol.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 19. November 2011 @ 13:26
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AfterDawn Addict
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19. November 2011 @ 13:19 |
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Originally posted by omegaman7:
LOL! One cannot dictate innovation.
Dvd's are rather impressive when you think about it. Blu-Ray disc has surpassed that technology. VERY impressive. And now they can add more layers to that technology.
Have you ever heard of HVD? Holographic versatile disc? Over 1Tb on an optical media.
I suspect a technology, is right under our nose.
Not really suggesting that Optical storage is the future, because quite frankly I find it appalling. A tiny flake/speck of whatever, and the eye/laser is mucked up. But I still find it impressive.
We are still in our infancy. We have so much to learn... :p
Impossible is not a word I use very often. A human defying gravity like superman? Yah, that's probably impossible LOL!
A few years back I saw that MIT was recording something like 1PB on a crystal the size of a pencil eraser; and it was rewritable. The rig was pretty big, but even in prototype form it was smaller than a rack of disk drives totaling 1PB is now. Not all technology moves at the same pace; sometimes there is a new idea that revolutionizes a whole sector. It just might be that optical becomes the leader at some point.
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19. November 2011 @ 13:54 |
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Indeed, making accurate predictions is what's an actual impossibility. :)
And yes, technology evolves very fast... Though not that fast; everything has its limits. Being those estimated by past experience, we can assure, with pretty little risk of being wrong, that single magnetic hard drives will positively not achieve the PB boundaries in five years time, nor optical or SSD will. At least, not at a price we most humans may be able to afford.
Anyway, I am not a betting guy either. ;)
"You know, it seems that quotes on the internet are becoming less and less reliable." -Abraham Lincoln.
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plazma247
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19. November 2011 @ 14:06 |
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I think the recent conformation that indicates its possible for something to travel faster than the speed of light illustrates that what we know is may not always be correct.
link
What is the saying, nothing is impossible, just highly unlikely.
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19. November 2011 @ 17:14 |
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Originally posted by plazma247:
I think the recent conformation that indicates its possible for something to travel faster than the speed of light illustrates that what we know is may not always be correct.
I'm quite skeptical on this. Please keep in mind that those results are still pending of an independent confirmation, a test that the original Opera experiment didn't pass, which is the actual reason behind it being forced to be repeated in the first place.
Originally posted by plazma247:
What is the saying, nothing is impossible, just highly unlikely.
Amen to that, sir, totally agreed. :)
"You know, it seems that quotes on the internet are becoming less and less reliable." -Abraham Lincoln.
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plazma247
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19. November 2011 @ 17:16 |
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Posted the wrong link, the refined test also came up with the same results: link
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Senior Member
28 product reviews
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19. November 2011 @ 23:34 |
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Could care less about this. I've had two Seagate drives. First one was on the brink of failing after 4-5 years, and 2nd one is starting to show signs of wear after only 1 year. Never will buy from Seagate again.
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AfterDawn Addict
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19. November 2011 @ 23:37 |
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Mike, the flooding affects more than Seagate. Western digital is also suffering greatly. This is bad news indeed, for the techie community...
To delete, or not to delete. THAT is the question! This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 19. November 2011 @ 23:37
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21. November 2011 @ 17:27 |
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All flooding aside, there is something funny in the HD market and has been for at least 6 months.
All of a sudden, newer, larger, faster drives are just not showing up!
I've been buying consumer drives for a long while and usually every year or so the size of the LARGEST drive goes up and the price of the previous largest drive goes down to $80.
For example: The 3TB drives are $130 and the 2TB drives are $80,
But they've been that price and size forever!!!
Where's the larger drives? Where's the cheaper price?
My guess? Demand is through the roof with all the video out there. The HD manufacturers figured out that they can't keep up with the pace and they might even be getting pressure from governments to keep the price up and the size down. (That's just my paranoid mind hard at work. I've not heard anything.)
People are amassing HUGE libraries of movies and songs and TV shows and countless other things, at the same time that governments are trying to crack down on that type of stuff.
Coincidence?
All I know is that I've been waiting forever for HD prices to drop again and now I cannot wait any more. I'll have to pay the outrageous prices. DAMN
Oh, Im sorry... Did the middle of my sentence interrupt the beginning of yours?
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plazma247
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21. November 2011 @ 18:10 |
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@ThePastor
If that were the case my friend i don't think they would have been allowed manufactures make CDR's DVDR's BDR's etc..
For as long as their is a market for something people will try and fill it.
Regarding the wait.. its only been about two months since this started, they said from the start it was going to be some time around feb march next year before things recovered and then this blow... end of next year...
But i feel your pain... we all do, a conspiracy or not, were all over the proverbial barrel now..!
The entire computer industry is slowly grinding to a slow halt as a result.
If you wanted a conspiracy, what if they had come up with a way to massively increase drive size and making all older drives small and worthless by comparison... what better way to ensure all the old stock gets sold off first... although im pretty darn sure this isn't what is happening... lol i should have tried harder to fit something about 2012 in there but couldn't be bothered.
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24. November 2011 @ 07:05 |
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Originally posted by plazma247:
I think the recent conformation that indicates its possible for something to travel faster than the speed of light illustrates that what we know is may not always be correct.
It was already well established that it was possible for something to move at greater than the speed of light in relation to another thing. That is just common sense as two things moving near the speed of light can be going in opposite directions.
To break this rule, a particle would have to go faster than the speed of light through space while maintaining the normal speed through time in relation to the space in which it was traveling...and the experiment you mentioned did not do this, in fact they didn't even check for it.
If that neutrino did in fact go faster than light in relation to the earth, then that is important to science, but it has not broken the speed of light.
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plazma247
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24. November 2011 @ 07:09 |
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Hey man, i was just quoting the beeb :)
The point i was getting at was probably better illustrated with the we used to think the world was flat.. until ;)
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24. November 2011 @ 13:07 |
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Originally posted by KillerBug:
It was already well established that it was possible for something to move at greater than the speed of light in relation to another thing. That is just common sense as two things moving near the speed of light can be going in opposite directions.
You are wrong. It's special relativity we're discussing about here.
http://www2.slac.stanford.edu/vvc/theory/relativity.html
"The Speed of Light is the same for all observers.
The first postulate -- the speed of light will be seen to be the same relative to any observer, independent of the motion of the observer -- is the crucial idea that led Einstein to formulate his theory. It means we can define a quantity c, the speed of light, which is a fundamental constant of nature."
According to this theory, NOTHING will ever move at higher speed than "c". That is, if an "observer" object "A" leaves some point in space at "c" speed, and an "observed" object "B" leaves the same spot at the same speed and in opposite direction, the speed of "B" in relation to "A" will be, as much, "c", and NEVER "2c", or, in fact, anything greater than "c".
Not easy to understand, can cause headache, whatever... But it's not my theory, it's Einstein's. And it had never been put in serious doubt for so many years... Until now.
"You know, it seems that quotes on the internet are becoming less and less reliable." -Abraham Lincoln.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 24. November 2011 @ 16:54
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