Originally posted by jony218:

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When the price drops below $200.00 USD they should start to sell like hotcakes. Right now here in the U.S. the price is currently too riducuosly high, no one I know owns one. In the Asian and European market the prices for these machines are even higher. I don't see it overtaking regular DVD for a long time to come.

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Originally posted by Interestx:

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In a time of recession people stick with what they already have.
They do not go out & splurg out on a new (comparatively expensive) DVD player nor the HD receiver etc etc to go with it.

It's true that some might buy a big HD TV (while they can) but many are finding that the upscaled stuff is a big step up already (and often think they have HD as it is).

The big deal about the credit crunch is that easy loans for this kind of thing are dying up.
The banks aren't lending so easily.
That's on top of the job losses etc to come from the recession itself.

This is a very unlucky time to be trying to establish a new product like Blu-ray.

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Originally posted by NexGen76:

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Who needs a loan for a 200 BD player.

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Originally posted by NexGen76:

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The choice is easy for a consumer when they walk into a BB or CC & they look at a unscaled player & BD player not even close.

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Originally posted by NexGen76:

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I work at BB part time & i can tell from what i seen upscale player not selling that good people prefer BD but some say the prices are a little high for them.They don't ask for unscaled players anymore.

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Originally posted by juankerr:

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Welcome back hughjars.

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Originally posted by Toshibot:

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That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

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Originally posted by 13thHouR:

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you mean, they are forcing us to change to crippled by DRM hardware so they can price fix media using the region blocking of CSS DRM, and try to sell us all the content we have purchased already on VHS and engage in multi dipping while the next best format is ripe to be exploited, surley not.... not the MPAA deciding they need to make extra money quick, and are sending teams of morons out to tell us all how good this new format is, and if you don't purchase DVD you are still viewing content in 60's esk definition, get with the times grandad!

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Originally posted by Toshibot:

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That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

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Originally posted by ripxrush:

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Not bad! A BR player for $250! it comes more in reach for me now!

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Quote:

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It's hard to imagine now, but when DVD first launched, its success was far from guaranteed. Back in 1996, there were even anti-DVD fanboys, and recently we ran into a rant--sarcastically retitled as "Why DVD would fail"--that struck us as eerily familiar to the current arguments against Blu-ray. Considering that DVD was such a huge success, it's worth looking at exactly how similar the two formats are at this early stage, and what that means for the future of Blu-ray.

1. Consumers aren't willing to rebuy movies

They will be the same tired movies that everyone already owns and will be loathe to buy again. [...] Because the titles available will be ones that people already own, they will naturally sell less than a new release that is still hot from the theaters. This will result in even a bigger cost for companies because the less they sell, the more each feature costs to implement on each title.

Right. Just like nobody repurchased their albums on CD or VHS tapes on DVD. This one seems to get dragged out for every new format and is quickly ignored once it takes off. We're not saying that people will rush to replace their DVDs with Blu-ray discs, but it seems obvious consumers eventually give in and repurchase media if the new format is worthwhile. The only difference we'd note is that well-kept DVDs don't deteriorate after use like VHS tapes did, so perhaps consumers will be somewhat less likely to replace their DVDs that still look as good as the day they bought them.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

2. Not enough movies

All the companies involved with DVD are promising a catalog of 250 titles at the launch with maybe 50 to 100 actually available in the stores in the beginning. [...] And even if they do manage to finish 250 movies in time for the launch, what will those movies be? Top Gun? Rocky?

When any type of new format launches, early adopters are stuck with a pretty limited initial selection. It happened with DVD, and it happened with Blu-ray, which still only has about 650 titles available two years after its release. And we're seeing it all over again with criticism of the selection on online movie services, such as iTunes, Vudu, and the Netflix Player. This argument seems pretty shortsighted overall--if a new format offers a new compelling experience, the content will follow.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

3. Can't record

Consumers will look at DVD and see that it doesn't record. That will instantly arouse suspicions in their mind that if the movies they want to watch are not available on the DVD discs, then the machine will be useless to them and a waste of money.

DVD recorders are old technology now, but when DVD first came out one of the knocks against it was that it didn't record like VHS--which was a killer feature before DVRs became ubiquitous. Blu-ray recorders are available now in Japan, but we haven't seen any signs of them coming to the U.S. in the near future. But the real issue is that Blu-ray recording just doesn't matter as much with high-def DVRs and so many TV series being released on high-quality DVD and Blu-ray sets.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray, but less people care.

4. Nobody cares about special features

Another question is, how many consumers actually want and use all the special features that DVD might offer? CD players offer all kinds of special programming and playback options, yet most people never touch these features. A cheap VCR is seen as too intimidating to most Americans. They just want to watch the movie, not select different versions, languages, and such. The LD market has proven that these extra features are desired, but only by a small segment of the population.

This point has been made about Blu-ray right here on CNET, in Executive Editor David Carnoy's Fully Equipped column. While I tend to agree that special features aren't a big draw for DVD or Blu-ray, it tends to be the icing on the cake, rather than the main draw of the format. DVD didn't succeed because of special features--and neither will Blu-ray--but they're a nice extra.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

5. Picture quality isn't that much better

And now we get into the most controversial aspect of the entire DVD debate. Picture quality, or the lack there of. When DVD was first announced, it was claimed to offer D1 Master Tape quality. A short while later, the companies said it was much better than VHS but worse than LD. Now they have swung the other way again and are claiming D1 quality again. Quite simply, this will be impossible on commercially prepared, feature-length films.

It seems insane to argue that DVD isn't a huge leap over VHS in terms of image quality, but it's less crazy than you think. It takes content makers a while to fully understand how to use new technology, which is why many first-run CDs and DVDs are surprisingly mediocre. The same thing happened with Blu-ray--anyone who saw the first version of The Fifth Element on Blu-ray can attest to that. But now that we've seen a steady flow of exceptional looking Blu-ray discs, it's going to be harder to find people who aren't impressed by the image quality of Blu-ray on a big-screen HDTV.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

6. The industry is just greedy

DVD is just a bad idea. It is being forced upon a uncaring and unwanted public and is an inferior product that simply isn't needed or desired. DVD exists only for one reason. Greed. Motion picture studios are always looking for a way to sell the same stuff over and over again and they think DVD is the answer.

More cynical observers might characterize Blu-ray as just the industry's latest attempt to make money on the same movies yet again. But the industry didn't introduce DVD out of the kindness of its heart--it did it to make money--and few people look back on successful formats like DVD and CD as a devious scheme by motion picture studios.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.

So, since the same arguments that didn't matter with DVD are now being used against Blu-ray, does that mean Blu-ray is destined to be as successful as DVD? Not quite. The simple fact is that Blu-ray's main draw is that it offers significantly better image quality than DVD, and whether consumers think that's a worthwhile upgrade will make or break the format. All the other arguments essentially don't matter, just like they didn't with DVD.

What do you think? Are Blu-ray critics lobbing the same weak arguments as DVD critics did back in 1996?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by Toshibot:

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That's because upconverting DVD players are no longer high-profit margin products.

We will see manufacturers phase out upconvert DVD players and they will start selling new upconvert DVD players with built-in BluRay drives.

Oppo has done this already. The DV-983H is their last DVD-only model. It's all BluRay/Upconvert from now on starting with the BDP-S83.

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you mean, they are forcing us to change to crippled by DRM hardware so they can price fix media using the region blocking of SPDC BD+ DRM, and try to sell us all the content we have purchased already on DVD and engage in multi dipping while the next best format is ripe to be exploited, surley not.... not the MPAA deciding they need to make extra money quick, and are sending teams of morons out to tell us all how good this new format is, and if you don't purchase Blu-Ray or even Hi-Def you are still viewing content in 80's esk definition, get with the times grandad!

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