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Blu-ray set-top sales to explode over next 4 years, says report
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 12 October, 2008
According to a new report by Parks Associates, worldwide Blu-ray set-top player sales will outpace most other consumer electronics items (including HDTVs) over the next four years as HD machines see more widespread adoption.
Kurt Scherf, principal analyst for Parks Associates, added that Blu-ray player sales will total 5 million globally this year (excluding the Sony PlayStation 3), up ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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Toshibot
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14. October 2008 @ 12:05 |
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Originally posted by glassd:
Not that interesting. An opinion from a gamming site in September.
... before the price cuts on Samsung and Sony standalones.
... before IM rewrote all the record books.
... before TDK will again re-write all the record books come December.
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Interestx
Senior Member
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14. October 2008 @ 12:59 |
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Originally posted by Oner:
BD sales are tracking even/equal to (actually surpassing) DVD sales in comparison/adoption rate.
How can you say that for certain?
I can show a slower adoption rate here -
http://www.mp3newswire.net/stories/8002/...ls_blu-ray.html
Note that this was published in March 2008 and the high def numbers are both the old HD DVD & Blu-ray combined.
Whilst it's clear more PS3s (and presumably at least some more standalones) have been sold in the meantime no-one independant that I know of is claiming verifiable Blu-ray sales numbers are running at double or triple that of last year.
In fact that is the problem with this whole debate.
The BDA,since HD DVD departed, no longer releases any sort of verifiable numbers.
We get a bunch of comment (some favourable and some not) from either paid analysts or the companies involved (or connected) themselves.
Or we gat a silly weekly sales earnings stat (which despite being skewed to reflect as well as possible for Blu compared to DVD usually shows less than impressive numbers, in fact).
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14. October 2008 @ 13:43 |
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Most who are not looking to make arguments out of Old news or news from game sites accept the #s given from Nielson's. Nielson does not care how Blu-ray does. They just try to provide the most accruate #'s possible. If they were just pulling #'s out of the air, no one would pay for their report. If the #'s are good or bad, I dont care. I also dont care if "hugjars" or nobrainer ever buy into blu-ray. Why do they care if I buy into blu? If they dont like it, dont read the artical and do not make post in the article. I dont go to the x-box articles and post crap.
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Interestx
Senior Member
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14. October 2008 @ 14:32 |
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glassd
Nielson put out the stats they are given by the various participating outlets.
The stats they are given are obviously about portraying Blu-ray in the best possible light.
You might not be interested in the real state of the market but I, like many others I suspect, am.
You might not care if your perceptions are being manipulated but I, like may others I suspect, do.
I'm sorry to dispell your paranoia but I am not "hugjars",
I have bought into Blu-ray
(I have a dual format LG BH 200 - which is an excellent player and side-steps the whole 'format war' stupidity),
this is a public forum for discussing the news
and some of us even hold completely differing views.
Far out, eh?
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. October 2008 @ 14:34
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13thHouR
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14. October 2008 @ 14:39 |
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Originally posted by glassd:
Most who are not looking to make arguments out of Old news or news from game sites accept the #s given from Nielson's. Nielson does not care how Blu-ray does. They just try to provide the most accruate #'s possible. If they were just pulling #'s out of the air, no one would pay for their report. If the #'s are good or bad, I dont care. I also dont care if "hugjars" or nobrainer ever buy into blu-ray. Why do they care if I buy into blu? If they dont like it, dont read the artical and do not make post in the article. I dont go to the x-box articles and post crap.
The old, well 3 weeks old news i posted is every bit as valid as this tosh, did you even bother to read the news story?
It's all conjecture and not news worthy.
So i presume everyone is not going to purchase a HD screen just a Blu-Ray player seems the Blu-Ray sales will rule the roost!
Quote:
Kurt Scherf, principal analyst for Parks Associates, added that Blu-ray player sales will total 5 million globally this year
The latest forecast
I predict that spam sales will soar over the next 5 years due to the credit crunch!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. October 2008 @ 14:45
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Toshibot
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14. October 2008 @ 14:48 |
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Originally posted by Interestx:
The stats they are given are obviously about portraying Blu-ray in the best possible light.
Do you have any proof of this?
The numbers still get reported even when BluRay gets a bad week. They don't stop coming out when BluRay sales take a fall.
For instance this Friday's numbers will likely be much lower than those reported when Iron Man came out. The percentages would likely come back down to the baseline of around 6% - 8% with revenue back down to the baseline of around $6 - $10 million.
Like this for instance:
Not very flattering for BluRay but it still gets reported.
I just don't see anything that supports your theory that they're trying to portray BD in the best possible light.
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14. October 2008 @ 15:31 |
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Nielsons only reports on items sold in this situation. Nielsons are not in the business of making predictions or opinions. They don't care one way or the other who sold more. Sony, Phillips, BDA etc are not the ones reporting this information. Home Media pays the Nielson Company for this information and publishes it in their magazine and internet site. If someone wants to make arguments with facts, that's great. Stupid statements with NO backing like "The only advantage Blu-Ray has over dvd is, wait for it, its coming, LARGER STORAGE CAPACITY!" is just immature and benifits no one.
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14. October 2008 @ 15:45 |
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This whole thing reminds me of the industry guys (like Leo Laporte) who say that you have to go to Vista because it's "the future". They do so because more adoption means more support for them. Never mind the fact that it's the worst OS since ME.
Blue Ray, (the disk) is OPTICAL MEDIA which can hold more data. Nothing more, nothing less.
Blue Ray, (the format) is a DRM encrusted, feature stuffed format that does the video and sound well, but spends WAY too many recources on other crap that does nothing but screw the whole system up.
I don't need/want anything other than Video and Audio. Maybe some menues.
I will never buy a Blue-Ray player because I don't have money to throw away. I can play all the High Definition video I desire through my computer. My DVD player will play any video I may need to play and if I have to switch disks in the middle of a movie, so be it.
This whole argument is so stupid.
Five years from now Blue Ray will be on the scrap heap with ME and Vista and Betamax. The FUTURE will be Hard drive or Solid state players with no optical media at all. Media will be downloaded or transfered over the network.
People are arguing over this format as if it matters.
LOL
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Toshibot
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14. October 2008 @ 15:47 |
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Here's Dan Ramer of dvdfile.com - from August of this year:
The Naysayers Are Still At It
More wrongheaded prognostication
Quote:
I?m really getting annoyed by ?industry experts? who seem to be oblivious to Blu-ray Disc?s stellar growth, industry enthusiasm, and consumers? embracing this high definition format more rapidly that they did DVD.
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Any market prediction requires a view of the big picture. BD player owners - film lovers and home theater enthusiasts - are proselytizing the format. Studios are pushing for market acceptance. Retailers are enthusiastic with the format?s potential. Technology is bringing the prices of players down. The economies of scale will drop disc prices. BD is capable of delivering unique experiences - including what I hope will be true, full color 3-D. And most importantly, the format is growing at a faster rate than DVD did during its formative years. Don?t let any naysayer dissuade you.
...and from a week ago:
The Fourth Quarter Has Arrived
Here comes the Blu-ray push
Quote:
I remain very bullish on Blu-ray. The only factor that may slow what should be an accelerating adoption rate is uncertainty in the economy and the impact the current economic crisis may have on consumer confidence. But despite the dire economic situation, with a more intelligent approach by government with the imposition of regulations to prevent future abuses, I?m confident the economy will bounce back, perhaps as early as mid-2009. BD adoption may be slowed by belt-tightening, but it will not be stopped. BD shall become the preferred vector for film viewed at home.
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14. October 2008 @ 16:58 |
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Blue Ray, (the disk) is OPTICAL MEDIA which can hold more data. Nothing more, nothing less.
Is 2,073,600 pixils of real information more than 408,960 pixils of real information? Is HD audio better than standard audio? Is 36mbps greater than 11mbps?Blue Ray, (the format) is a DRM encrusted, feature stuffed format that does the video and sound well, but spends WAY too many recources on other crap that does nothing but screw the whole system up.
What trouble have you had with it's DRM? Just how much time is spent on the other recources? How did it screw up your system?
Five years from now Blue Ray will be on the scrap heap with ME and Vista and Betamax. The FUTURE will be Hard drive or Solid state players with no optical media at all. Media will be downloaded or transfered over the network.
Where did you get this opinion from?
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. October 2008 @ 16:59
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Senior Member
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14. October 2008 @ 18:51 |
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Everything you posted is format specific.
The bits and bytes are still ones and zeros.
I can put a 2000x2000 video on a DVD disk and play it wherever I wish.
I can put the same video on a video server/computer and play it at native format through a projector and fill the side of a building.
Neither has anything whatsoever to do with the media it is on.
What this argument is about is forcing the world to accept this FORMAT, like we were forced to accept the absolutely abysmal DVD format so that your Blue-Ray selection will go up and your hope is that it becomes as ubiquitous as DVD.
I'm telling you, as my opinion, that by the time it starts to become widespread there will be much better, much cheaper and much more versatile players available which won't require the purchase of media at all, will be scalable as video displays become better and won't be hobbled with technology stifling DRM.
And yeah, that's my opinion...
What's yours?
Brian Covey
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14. October 2008 @ 19:09 |
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My opinion is that it is the best video and audio format supported by all of the major movie studios that is avaliable to the general public. I can afford it. I like it more than SD and upconverted video. It looks much beter than other formats. All of this is my opinion which I can also prove to be true.
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Interestx
Senior Member
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14. October 2008 @ 19:11 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
I just don't see anything that supports your theory that they're trying to portray BD in the best possible light.
Just look at what kind of stat is the (only) one which gets reported each week.
It's the cash earnings of the top 20 sellers of each format (DVD v Blu-ray).
This amplifies the Blu-ray position because Blu-ray movies, especially new releases, are not only usually significantly more expensive per unit that DVD but it is a format in a very immature market, it is a market mostly comprising of early adopters who are far more likely to buy at the time of a new release.
DVD meanwhile is a much more mature market.
This market is, in complete contrast, much more likely to wait a few weeks or even months until movie prices fall before buying titles.
The last thing the BDA are going to give us now is a straight unit sales comparison for titles between the formats over a period of 3, 6 or 12mths.
It's pretty obvious why.
DVD sells 1.7 billion units p.a. and Blu-ray? What? 12 million?
15 million?
Maybe they already reached the dizzy heights of a whole 1% of that DVD number and will turn in 17 million sales this year.
What they absolutely will not be doing, despite what Nielson might (mis)lead people to believe is turn in a sales performance of capturing a genuine 8%, 12% or 17% of that 1.7 billion number.
So quite clearly there is a huge element where these numbers are highly selective and this is done to portray Blu-ray in the most favourable light possible (in fact it would be hard to think of a more loaded stat) - and yes, even with this approach, many weeks are awful, just as this week is awful if you remove Iron Man.
The same will happen when Batman is released.
A few instances of better sales on a few titles does not secure the format.
Like I said, every good spin Dr knows you just load the questions so as to get the kind of answers you prefer.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 14. October 2008 @ 19:12
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14. October 2008 @ 19:11 |
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You jus gotta love the arguments, its quite Entertaining to say the least
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14. October 2008 @ 19:15 |
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It is also my opinion that no one is being forced to buy into blu-ray. If you or anyone else does not want or see the need in it, dont get it. Dont read about it if you are not interested in it. Dont comment negetively about it. Just stay as far away from it as possible. This is my opinion. There is plenty of things that i dont like or agree with. I own a Vista PC that I dont like and I own a disk scratching 360. I do not post anything negetive on any Vista or 360 article. I dont even read them. It is easy.
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14. October 2008 @ 19:20 |
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'Iron Man' sold 7.2 million DVDs for the week of September 29th to October 5th and sold 510,000 Blu-ray Discs, smashing previous first week records for the HD format.
Paramount added that the disc sold 260,000 units on its first day (including pre-orders) to set the single day record.
What is deceptive about that. The BDA did not provide this info. Seams straight forward to me.
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Toshibot
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14. October 2008 @ 19:32 |
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Originally posted by glassd:
'Iron Man' sold 7.2 million DVDs for the week of September 29th to October 5th and sold 510,000 Blu-ray Discs, smashing previous first week records for the HD format.
Paramount added that the disc sold 260,000 units on its first day (including pre-orders) to set the single day record.
What is deceptive about that. The BDA did not provide this info. Seams straight forward to me.
I guess some people find it hard to accept any good news for BluRay even if it's backed by solid, unbiased numbers. Any positive news is dismissed right away as manipulation and spin.
BluRay has practically 100 percent studio support and (with the exception of Toshiba) has the backing of every major CE manufacturer. It's no longer a matter of survival. BD is here to stay. It will coexist with DVD as the HD choice for the movie fan.
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Interestx
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15. October 2008 @ 09:03 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
BD is here to stay.
Even Samsung only give it 5 more years.
Quote:
Samsung has said that it sees the Blu-ray format only lasting a further 5 years before it is replaced by another format or technology.
"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint in an interview
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.p...ears-left.phtml
5 years is far too late to expect anything even close to mass-adoption.
Originally posted by Toshibot:
It will coexist with DVD as the HD choice for the movie fan.
I agree. It will coexist as the (very) junior & smaller partner to DVD.
What it will not be doing (particularly when the imminent recession/slump & credit crunch hit fully) is getting anywhere near DVD's share of the market - and the continual PR effort to convince people otherwise is just plain nuts.
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eatsushi
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15. October 2008 @ 12:53 |
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Originally posted by Interestx:
It will coexist as the (very) junior & smaller partner to DVD.
Agreed. As long as they continue to release movies on the format I'm satisfied. The studios don't care how it compares to DVD as long as the money continues to come in. Now they have two sources of income for disc based media.
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15. October 2008 @ 13:11 |
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Here is one from Sony saying that it will last more than 5 years. http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/15063-Blu-r...years-left.html There are plenty more saying the same thing from Pioneer and the other CE's.
Big deal. They are all opinions on both sides. The Astecs say that the world will end in 1212. The article did not say anything about it overtaking DVD or the likes.
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bdoggie08
Junior Member
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15. October 2008 @ 18:24 |
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Quote:
Originally posted by 13thHouR:
@ Oner go pick a fight with someone else get off my back.
You SERIOUSLY need to take your own advice as you where the only one instigating a problem (as usual).
Hey Nobrainer,
Can't wait till you get banned again. I am so sick of ur stupid biased comments regarding Sony. SonySonySonySonySonySonySonySonySonySony blah blah blah is all i read from you. Nothing worth contributing to any thread. Never helping anybody with problems. Just trolling through the news section with every intent to start fights with MODS and start useless arguements and always misconstrueing information all the time. You are useless. I would never want to live/work/trust the likes of you. There. I have said my peace.
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juankerr
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15. October 2008 @ 19:26 |
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Originally posted by eatsushi:
Agreed. As long as they continue to release movies on the format I'm satisfied. The studios don't care how it compares to DVD as long as the money continues to come in. Now they have two sources of income for disc based media.
+1
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ematrix
Junior Member
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16. October 2008 @ 03:35 |
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The problem with any sales figures provided by some like HMR, is that there are variable, yet when Blu-ray has one good week, inmediatelly is manipulated by others as the format being a constant success, when in fact it only reflects that it had a good week.
For instance, they noted that Iron Man sold 510,000 BDs in the week of September 29th to October 5th, and that half of them were sold in the first day of release (including preorders) which means that a lot of people rushed to buy it. Yet they noted that in the same week Iron Man sold 7.2 million DVDs, and that DVD consumers maybe waiting for holiday sales and discounts to buy it.
Nobody is denying that Iron Man smashed previous records for BD, indeed had a good first week, but at this point that's all. All I'm saying is that we should look closely at how Iron Man does in the following weeks, so we all could get a clear picture before making any conclusions.
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16. October 2008 @ 12:22 |
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There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.
Blu Ray's right on the knife's edge.
Everybody I know here in the US is cutting back on expenses and holding on to what they've got in anticipation of an Obama presidency.
Personally, if it's between a new TV and a BR player, I'm going to buy a new TV.
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Toshibot
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16. October 2008 @ 12:31 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.
DVD was projected to be at 10% penetration in 2000 (3 years after launch).
Was it doomed then?
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_/ai_58430912
Quote:
US DVD-Video Household Penetration to Exceed 10% in 2000, InfoTech Forecasts
...InfoTech projects DVD-Video penetration of US households will exceed 10% during 2000, fulfilling expectations that the format will be greater than previous consumer electronics product sales records.
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