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Blu-ray set-top sales to explode over next 4 years, says report
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The following comments relate to this news article:
article published on 12 October, 2008
According to a new report by Parks Associates, worldwide Blu-ray set-top player sales will outpace most other consumer electronics items (including HDTVs) over the next four years as HD machines see more widespread adoption.
Kurt Scherf, principal analyst for Parks Associates, added that Blu-ray player sales will total 5 million globally this year (excluding the Sony PlayStation 3), up ... [ read the full article ]
Please read the original article before posting your comments.
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Senior Member
4 product reviews
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16. October 2008 @ 12:59 |
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I don't like the Way Blu-ray "handles things" including there business practices, and the 3 Different DRM's + the 2 incorporated in the devices.
That given, Time will tell how far Blu-ray goes before its demise.
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16. October 2008 @ 13:21 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
There is a pretty accurate rule of electronics marketing that if a product's technology type hasn't penetrated a third of homes by its third year, it's doomed.
DVD was projected to be at 10% penetration in 2000 (3 years after launch).
Was it doomed then?
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_/ai_58430912
Quote:
US DVD-Video Household Penetration to Exceed 10% in 2000, InfoTech Forecasts
...InfoTech projects DVD-Video penetration of US households will exceed 10% during 2000, fulfilling expectations that the format will be greater than previous consumer electronics product sales records.
Apples and oranges.
The 3:3 rule only covers likely buyers replacing one technology type or installing a new one with no equivalent. DVD had no existing equivalent (VHS was a different technology type, obviously) and BR has no realistic data recording drive equivalent. Unless you want to argue it was replacing CDs, but VideoCD came latee to that game. However, I'd say it WAS the ability for home users and data centers to record large blocks of data affordably on a lasting format that combined with video which propelled DVD to where it is.
It certainly wasn't picture quality. If consumers at large cared about that, DVD would've replaced BetaMax and LaserDisc, not VHS. They also wouldn't be settling for compression as they happily do.
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Toshibot
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16. October 2008 @ 13:33 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
The 3:3 rule only covers likely buyers replacing one technology type or installing a new one with no equivalent. DVD had no existing equivalent
So you're saying that the 3:3 rule applies to DVD.
But the article I linked to says that DVD had only 10% penetration 3 years into its life span.
So it should have been doomed yet it flourishes today.
If the 3:3 rule doesn't apply to DVD then it shouldn't apply to BluRay as well.
As someone else pointed out , the factor you didn't consider is that BluRay players are backward-compatible with DVD. Manufacturers can transition to BluRay without abandoning their DVD base. This is what will happen as profit margins for DVD-only players dwindle to nothing.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 16. October 2008 @ 13:38
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16. October 2008 @ 13:37 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
The 3:3 rule only covers likely buyers replacing one technology type or installing a new one with no equivalent. DVD had no existing equivalent
So you're saying that the 3:3 rule applies to DVD.
But the article I linked to says that DVD had only 10% penetration 3 years into its life span.
So it should have been doomed yet it flourishes today.
If the 3:3 rule doesn't apply to DVD then it shouldn't apply to BluRay as well.
Or are you going to come up with more exceptions to the 3:3 rule?
Chill, slice.
That's why it's a rule and not a law.
But since you only read the parts you want to read, just make it up in your head.
You will, anyway, BRbot.
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Toshibot
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16. October 2008 @ 13:42 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
That's why it's a rule and not a law.
Rules.
Laws.
So you're saying that it could happen but then again it might not.
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ikari
Junior Member
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16. October 2008 @ 14:17 |
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Wow, very angry people.
Of course BD will "explode". It doesn't mean that it will take over DVD. That is yet to be seen. Besides, a difference between "VHS vs. DVD" and "BD vs. DVD" is that you have to upgrade your TV to get the full effect with BD. So most likely you are going to see a trend with the number of HDTV being sold and BD being sold. Most likely as we see the number of HDTV climb we will see BD climb as well.
Again, why are we all getting angry about this?
I wish we had a lot of tech forums when the "VHS and DVD" war was being waged. That would have been just has funny as some of these comments.
/OT Will someone please get the people that just stirred up anger, out of these forums? These people turn what could be intelligent conversations into hateful forum trolling. Thanks.
These opinions are not meant to start a stupid fanboy fight or any kind of fight for that matter.
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16. October 2008 @ 14:31 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
That's why it's a rule and not a law.
Rules.
Laws.
So you're saying that it could happen but then again it might not.
What I said was DVD and Blu Ray aren't equivalent in that case. Apples and oranges.
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Toshibot
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16. October 2008 @ 14:40 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
What I said was DVD and Blu Ray aren't equivalent in that case. Apples and oranges.
If it doesn't apply to DVD then it doesn't apply to BluRay as well.
There are other factors in play here:
Factor 1: BluRay adoption is dependent on HDTV adoption.
Factor 2: BluRay players are backward compatible with DVD and adoption of the HD format doesn't mean the abandonment of the SD format.
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upowerbiz
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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16. October 2008 @ 21:05 |
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The prices has dropped but it depend on how much off a price drop you are looking for.
upowerbiz
http://www.removed.com/
Has rolled back there players prices they now go from low 200 to 300 dollars 100 dollars cheaper than last year.The prices are going down for sure.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 16. October 2008 @ 21:34
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16. October 2008 @ 23:28 |
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Originally posted by Toshibot:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
What I said was DVD and Blu Ray aren't equivalent in that case. Apples and oranges.
If it doesn't apply to DVD then it doesn't apply to BluRay as well.
There are other factors in play here:
Factor 1: BluRay adoption is dependent on HDTV adoption.
Factor 2: BluRay players are backward compatible with DVD and adoption of the HD format doesn't mean the abandonment of the SD format.
The first sentence makes no sense to me. It's contradictory. If it doesn't apply to Superboy, it doesn't apply to string beans makes as much sense. That's not an attack, just acknowledgement of how fundamentally differently we see this, I guess.
The other factors are factors, but not the major factors.
My point is about the time - time to adoption - of a fundamentally different technology type. (At least that's what people tell me every time they make apologies for Sony gouging for what is essentially a hyped-up DVD format.)
SuperVHS was backward compatible to VHS, too.
Same with Hi8 and Digital8 to 8mm.
Both came too late, took too long coming down to a realistic price and they were made obsolete while still expensive.
The only reason we're seeing as much penetration as there is, is that HDTV isn't absolutely necessary with most players, because of conversion.
But the same problem we have with Blu Ray is the one we have with HDTV. They're pushing inferior goods at a ridiculous price just because they can. We've had this crappy, compressed bastardization of "high definition" TV forced down our throats.
I would argue it's already too late for Blu Ray. They're doing their best to hold back what's next, but sooner or later, somebody will either admit the players are only worth half what they're charging, or they'll get tired of the BS in this DRM box and give us a better technology type.
Blu Ray...the bloom's off the rose. It's old by modern standards and overpriced. It's "standard" is so messed up they've put together a committee just to solve its many problems. It's compressed to hell and DRM-infected.
Sorry, but I say, "Thanks for playing, Blu. NEXT!"
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 16. October 2008 @ 23:32
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error5
Senior Member
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16. October 2008 @ 23:45 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
It's compressed to hell
Compressed?
Of course it's compressed.
If the studios released the uncompressed masters they would need far more than the 50 Gigabytes of a dual layer disc.
High bitrate AVC and VC-1 encodes and lossless audio are what you get with BluRay.
If you need more than that go to a movie theater.
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uruz7
Suspended permanently
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21. October 2008 @ 01:59 |
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That's OK!But take a closer look following link,It's great to DVD and PSP converter
spam removed
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 21. October 2008 @ 08:28
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21. October 2008 @ 02:34 |
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Originally posted by error5:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
It's compressed to hell
If you need more than that go to a movie theater.
Precisely my point.
That's what I AM doing and I'm by no means alone.
Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.
Meh, I say! Meh.
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JRude
Junior Member
1 product review
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21. October 2008 @ 03:04 |
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You guys take yourselves too seriously. Too many suspensions. I'm suspending myself permanently in here. Bubbyez!
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error5
Senior Member
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21. October 2008 @ 09:01 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.
For your scenario to play out, the following will have to happen:
> People should suddenly embrace 4K displays or projectors that currently cost upwards of $100K.
> CE manufacturers should start R&D and manufacturing of holographic players utilizing drives that currently cost $15,000 each.
> CE manufacturers should start making holographic burners for PC's using media that currently cost $120 to $180 each.
> Studios should start releasing their uncompressed digital masters at 4K resolution without DRM.
> Disc manufacturers should install new multi-million dollar holographic replication facilities able to churn out commercial quantities of multi-terabyte holographic media.
Sony 4K Projector - $114,000
Hitachi Holographic Drives - $15,000/Holographic Media $120 - $180
Originally posted by mspurloc:
Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
I admire your optimism but I choose to be thankful for what I have and what's available right now.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 21. October 2008 @ 09:15
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hufriedy
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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21. October 2008 @ 09:18 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
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I admire your optimism but I choose to be thankful for what I have and what's available right now.
So you mean this new tech is not gonna be out this Christmas ? :(
Whats this for ?
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ematrix
Junior Member
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22. October 2008 @ 03:42 |
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Originally posted by mspurloc:
Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.
Meh, I say! Meh.
I agree with all your comments... yet due to the current economic crisis and global recession, now more than before I seriously doubt will see Blu-ray achieving worldwide mainstream penetration and consumption, when in fact it will contribute to insure that Blu-ray's lifespan will be much shorter than what the BDA hoped for.
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22. October 2008 @ 12:04 |
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Originally posted by ematrix:
Originally posted by mspurloc:
Blu Ray stands in the way. As long as it's what they're selling, we're not going to get a true 21st Century format that can deliver something approaching a real home theater experience. Holographic encoding is a lot closer to practicality than anyone thinks.
So, unless they introduce affordable data drives so that users can make backups of their ridiculously-overpriced BR DVDs, I'm not interested. SD DVDs may not be as pretty, but their backups last and if the original gets scratched or broken, you're not left with a coaster.
Meh, I say! Meh.
I agree with all your comments... yet due to the current economic crisis and global recession, now more than before I seriously doubt will see Blu-ray achieving worldwide mainstream penetration and consumption, when in fact it will contribute to insure that Blu-ray's lifespan will be much shorter than what the BDA hoped for.
Hmmm, excellent point.
Whatever the case was three years ago, it IS a somewhat different ballgame now, and that might slow adoption down to the point of impossibility. I know I'm not personally buying anything new for the next four years unless I absolutely must. Even in my low-to-middle class bracket, I can expect to lose half my income to taxes.
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22. October 2008 @ 12:37 |
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juankerr
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22. October 2008 @ 12:46 |
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