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The REASON For The Ban Wave
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frostyxc
Newbie
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5. November 2009 @ 14:02 |
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Microsoft is not releasing torrents to bust people. If it was discovered that they facilitated piracy (for whatever reason), Microsoft wouldn't be able to prosecute any piracy cases in the future. Why bother with such subterfuge when people constantly leak stuff in earnest?
If I were to guess, Microsoft is flagging for: amount of games put in console against time played (people burning stuff just test and never touching again), play of leaked content, hardware errors (from screwing up a flash, testing with burns, rinse and repeat), atypical usage of Live, Friends list associations (pirates most likely mingling with other pirates), hardware hacking (pirates are most likely the first to change hard drive size outside of Microsoft's channels, or the DVD drive), sudden change of console linked to an account (most likely due to a previous console ban and not bad hardware under warranty), warranty repairs/replacements showing signs of tampering, going on "modding" forums and collecting gamertags for monitoring, or through the microchip that Microsoft has implanted at the base of your skull reporting everything you do back to Bill Gates' secret lair in the Cascade Mountains.
Anyway, once they get a few of those flags, Microsoft probably has a crew monitor the accounts over time and put them on a ban list if the criteria is met. They do it all at once in the fall so it looks like it was a sudden, automatic detection. From what I have read from most of you guys, it wouldn't be so hard to establish a pattern and dole out some bans. The people that don't get banned either didn't get picked up on enough flags to further the process, or they just got lucky and flew under the radar despite hitting every single flag.
Regardless, if you're going to take the risk, don't complain and try to call Microsoft to weasel your way out of a hardware ban. Either pay the $200 penance to get back on Live, or enjoy playing in solitude.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 5. November 2009 @ 14:04
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Exbokz
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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5. November 2009 @ 15:29 |
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Ok, having read countless posts in regards to this topic I decided to register and put in my 2 cents (this is my first post on this site). With no real trend between all the people who have been banned, it is my belief that the "ban list" is made up at random.
Basically, one way or another, m$ knows if your system has been tampered with or not and decides annually to ban a random amount of violators. It makes no sense financially for them to ban EVERYONE they suspect of breaking TOS, but banning a percentage of them will send the message of "do this, and you risk being dealt with", which to them I'm sure is enough.
I dont think they care how stealth or blatant you are about it, either way they know and you run this risk of getting your number called in the ban lottery. If there were any criteria as to what makes someone more likely to be overlooked, my guess would be its more in relation to how much money they make off of you (so someone who buys m$ points frequently may not be as likely to be banned, for example). It's a theory that crossed my mind while reading all the posts, after all it is a business and their sole purpose is to make money, but ultimately I still believe its all random.
I know for me, I do everything I can to be safe, but I accepted the fact that I will likely be banned at some point the day I decided to open up my xbox. I managed to dodge this waive, but in no way do I feel as though I am completely safe no matter what I do. That being said, I'll still be cautious since I don't like to tempt fate, but I'm not going to be upset if and when I get caught.
Until someone actually figures out what information the xbox stores and sends to m$, nobody will ever be completely safe.
PS - This site is awesome! There is so much information to be found here, its the first (and typically last) place I go whenever I need help with anything related to my xbox. Great work.
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MReprogle
Member
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5. November 2009 @ 17:02 |
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I wish we could all donate a clean to someone with the knowledge to sniff NAT packets. This way, we could buy a brand new 360, play some backups and intentionally get banned. After being banned, you could look into the packets that you 'spyed' on as they were sent to MS. This would tell us alot of information, and the exact method of getting banned. This would be a great time do do some tests.
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tamtam55
Newbie
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5. November 2009 @ 17:04 |
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Originally posted by Mik29:
Anybody else got a Hitachi 1.51 that's still working?, or had one banned?
I've got a Xenon XBOX with Hitach 59DJ with iXtreme 1.51 and still unbanned, but i am from Germany, not US
The ban wave started yesterday (4th November) and my XBOX still not banned
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gameover9
Suspended permanently
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5. November 2009 @ 17:11 |
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Originally posted by MReprogle:
I wish we could all donate a clean to someone with the knowledge to sniff NAT packets. This way, we could buy a brand new 360, play some backups and intentionally get banned. After being banned, you could look into the packets that you 'spyed' on as they were sent to MS. This would tell us alot of information, and the exact method of getting banned. This would be a great time do do some tests.
Hmm. Wireshark the xbox possibly?
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dvbranton
Junior Member
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5. November 2009 @ 17:14 |
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I guesse I will put my nooby booby 2 sense in as well........ I think it is kind of simple the way they do it. Look at the Forza 3 bans. They used the gamer tags that went on to play early. I still think M$ is doing this they use the games company to report the gamers that are using and playing the games early and collect enough and then when time comes lay the ban on them. Gae reviewers I am sure xbl has a list to let them know what tag is safe and what tag is not.
The whole thing of M$ checking to see if games are just played to test and never played again is not a good theory either as if that was the case how many times have you rented something and it sucked right away and you took it back to get another one or sent it back out the next day? Also you can come and go on XBL when ever you want no such thing as atypical usage of live, That is almost kind of a theory of saying if you don't buy XBLA games you will get banned.
I don't see how M$ can have a chip to just store errors and upload them to a database to check on people. I imagine that list is huge and you would need a big staff to under take that task unless there is a program that monitors the bad errors from the normal errors. Like wrong DVD firmware and such.
Yes you will get banned sooner or latter.That is a risk that we all take. MAYBE. as well no matter how much M$ fights the modders there is always something they do to beat M$ in the first place......... If M$ was concerned about "pirated" games don't you think they would have went after places like Gamestop? I mean when you buy new for $60 and GS has used for $50 the developers don't see none of that profit only GS does. But it is kind of funny that every oct-nov there is a ban wave that comes right around the holiday season to get the sales up and with the new Lite-on not being able to be flashed (yet) what better way to defeat the modders by doing that.
Also I love this site jut like exbokz said it is the first and last place to go for info and the ones that are on here all the time are really helpful. I have learned a lot so thanks for sharing the knowledge.
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Senior Member
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5. November 2009 @ 17:15 |
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well you would think someone that works with the fw team would have thought of this already
If you send me questions on Live about modding or anything related i will block you. Dont be an idiot.
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Aiur
Member
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5. November 2009 @ 17:49 |
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Originally posted by frostyxc:
Microsoft is not releasing torrents to bust people. If it was discovered that they facilitated piracy (for whatever reason), Microsoft wouldn't be able to prosecute any piracy cases in the future. Why bother with such subterfuge when people constantly leak stuff in earnest?
If I were to guess, Microsoft is flagging for: amount of games put in console against time played (people burning stuff just test and never touching again), play of leaked content, hardware errors (from screwing up a flash, testing with burns, rinse and repeat), atypical usage of Live, Friends list associations (pirates most likely mingling with other pirates), hardware hacking (pirates are most likely the first to change hard drive size outside of Microsoft's channels, or the DVD drive), sudden change of console linked to an account (most likely due to a previous console ban and not bad hardware under warranty), warranty repairs/replacements showing signs of tampering, going on "modding" forums and collecting gamertags for monitoring, or through the microchip that Microsoft has implanted at the base of your skull reporting everything you do back to Bill Gates' secret lair in the Cascade Mountains.
1. I doubt they have enough time to check through every gamertag to see if they play an unusually high amount of games.
2. As someone else mentioned, how would they know of hardware errors? If they knew of hardware errors, they could have a box sent to your door for the RROD before you even thought to call them.
3. Why would a sudden change in console raise flags? They have had so many SKU's available since 2005, so it should not raise any flags that people have gone through a few 360's, if for no other reason than just to upgrade. I've been through 4 or 5 now myself, and none have those are the result of being banned on a previous console.
4. If you call for repairs related to anything other than the DVD drive, what motive would they have for checking the DVD drive? Also, in my experience in dealing with the repair process, the system you send to them most likely is not the system you will get back.
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MReprogle
Member
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5. November 2009 @ 18:19 |
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Originally posted by gameover9:
Originally posted by MReprogle:
I wish we could all donate a clean to someone with the knowledge to sniff NAT packets. This way, we could buy a brand new 360, play some backups and intentionally get banned. After being banned, you could look into the packets that you 'spyed' on as they were sent to MS. This would tell us alot of information, and the exact method of getting banned. This would be a great time do do some tests.
Hmm. Wireshark the xbox possibly?
Yeah, something like that. I lack the knowledge of it, but it can't be all that difficult can it? If I knew how, I'd be doing it right now..
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Xcalamyte
Member
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5. November 2009 @ 19:24 |
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Like the guy said, dont buy another system thats what they want. Just trade it with someone that dont play online. We all knew this day would come, hell I barely played and got banned.
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tamtam55
Newbie
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6. November 2009 @ 04:42 |
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By the way... Is there any topic in this board where is kind of a list which drives have been banned and which were not ? In germany it seems like that most of the lite on drives have been banned... have seen one with hitachi at the moment; mine Hitachi is still OK.
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JediOrc
Member
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6. November 2009 @ 05:18 |
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Originally posted by stealthdf:
Dont buy another 360 thats what the ywant you to do. thats why they ban people in novemeber every year so they can get a boost in hardware sales numbers. Just find someone that doesnt play online at all and see if they wil trade 360 with you. as long as you arent giving them a Non HDMI for one that has HDMI or giving them a refurb vs a never repaired unit then they should be fine with it.
Hell my HDMI got banned but i dont use HDMI so i swapped a friend for his nonHDMI so he gets an upgrade and i get to stay online.
Quote:
The MW2 bundles are being sold early and it comes with the game ...theres the retail leak
I agree 100%
Target is selling MW2 bundles early (not all obviously) and so is walmart... I was really debating on picking one up but I already have a "unflashable" liteon...why have 2 unflashables? lol
But back to topic: I really think it is the abgx lvl 2 that people are using and getting ban. I submited a previous thread of all those that were not baned to find a connection and so far there is 1= verification and lvl 3... so we shall see if thats it or there is something else...
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JediOrc
Member
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6. November 2009 @ 05:33 |
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Originally posted by tamtam55:
By the way... Is there any topic in this board where is kind of a list which drives have been banned and which were not ? In germany it seems like that most of the lite on drives have been banned... have seen one with hitachi at the moment; mine Hitachi is still OK.
http://forums.afterdawn.com/t.cfm/f-152/...st_here-810700/
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Dodgy_Bob
Junior Member
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6. November 2009 @ 05:42 |
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IMO you are banned for playing a game pre-release. Simple as.
My CONSOLE was banned (not me) yesterday. I played Ghostbusters 2 or 3 weeks ago on it. It's release date in the UK is today.
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Senior Member
13 product reviews
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6. November 2009 @ 05:56 |
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The reason you got banned was because you decided to void the warranty and mod the drive. That's why you were banned!
People should know that when they first mod their drive; doesn't mean you're safe from anything, you put yourself more at risk to get banned. My buddy got banned, and he never played games early. Another buddy played Borderlands early, but not on live, which doesn't matter, cause M$ will see it anyways!
And I got banned for the second time, but I knew it was coming, cause I played mw2 early, and really... I don't care, it's not that hard to get a new box!
And don't go buying a new box. Not cause the profit will go to M$, but that the new drives are unmoddable! So unless you plan on modding your box again, best bet is to buy used!
Again, you were banned cause you modded the 360! Simple as that!
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Dodgy_Bob
Junior Member
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6. November 2009 @ 06:27 |
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I disagree. If it was for modding a drive why wasn't my console banned previously?
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AfterDawn Addict
3 product reviews
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6. November 2009 @ 06:33 |
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Originally posted by Mik29:
Anybody else got a Hitachi 1.51 that's still working?, or had one banned?
I also have a not banned Hitachi 59
To get instant assistance with Flashing / JTAG / Homebrew from experts for free! click me (Im not one of the said experts BTW)
Make poverty history, cheaper drugs NOW! This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 6. November 2009 @ 06:38
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AfterDawn Addict
3 product reviews
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6. November 2009 @ 06:37 |
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Originally posted by Dodgy_Bob:
I disagree. If it was for modding a drive why wasn't my console banned previously?
err. do you know what a "BAN WAVE" is?
EDIT: Sorry for the double post, accident.
To get instant assistance with Flashing / JTAG / Homebrew from experts for free! click me (Im not one of the said experts BTW)
Make poverty history, cheaper drugs NOW!
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 6. November 2009 @ 06:38
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Dodgy_Bob
Junior Member
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6. November 2009 @ 06:43 |
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Originally posted by miketrev:
Originally posted by Dodgy_Bob:
I disagree. If it was for modding a drive why wasn't my console banned previously?
err. do you know what a "BAN WAVE" is?
EDIT: Sorry for the double post, accident.
Yes I do. And I re-iterate, if it was for modding my drive the console would have been banned previously (in a previous wave). It was not.
The first time I play a pre-released game, the console is banned in the next wave.
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AfterDawn Addict
3 product reviews
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6. November 2009 @ 06:51 |
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Originally posted by Dodgy_Bob:
Yes I do. And I re-iterate, if it was for modding my drive the console would have been banned previously (in a previous wave). It was not.
The first time I play a pre-released game, the console is banned in the next wave.
There are plenty of peeps reporting a ban without playing pre releases. Did you check your pre release out in ABGX after it was added to the database?
To get instant assistance with Flashing / JTAG / Homebrew from experts for free! click me (Im not one of the said experts BTW)
Make poverty history, cheaper drugs NOW!
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Junior Member
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6. November 2009 @ 08:11 |
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Originally posted by frostyxc:
Microsoft is not releasing torrents to bust people. If it was discovered that they facilitated piracy (for whatever reason), Microsoft wouldn't be able to prosecute any piracy cases in the future. Why bother with such subterfuge when people constantly leak stuff in earnest?
Really? You think so? Google "Media Defender". It's very enlightening. Any company can hire them as far as I'm aware, so long as they have copyright control over the source material.
This message has been edited since posting. Last time this message was edited on 6. November 2009 @ 08:14
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jf1981
Suspended due to non-functional email address
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6. November 2009 @ 09:08 |
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Actually I got banned and I modded my xbox and never played a single backup game. just got it flashed just incase my disk get damage. So I do believe that M$ is detecting the firmware and banning people.
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frostyxc
Newbie
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6. November 2009 @ 09:48 |
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Wow, I got a numbered list person. They know what they are talking about when they number responses, right? ; )
I'm not going to reply with numbers, but I'll explain more clearly on a few things.
As for my post, it was just an educated guess, just like anyone else who guesses at this stuff. I don't know any more than Mr. Numbered List up there.
As for atypical games usage, I was just saying it may be a flag, not a reason to ban someone. Like I said before, it's probably a collection of flags before anyone is put on a list.
And for the abnormal hardware errors (like bad firmware writings over and over), I didn't mean they were tracking all errors so they could send you a coffin. That's why I clarified what I meant. They may see an error log for all we know, and it would be very easy to discern what happened. Again, probably just a flag. They may not even track it at all, as I was GUESSING.
Anyway, I did recently hear one of the heads on Live on a podcast discussing gamertag bans (normally for a-hole Live users), and he let out some interesting tidbits about tracking the offenders and gathering evidence before taking action.
If they're willing to do that before banning a $40 Live account, I think they probably have a similar (possibly more thorough) course of action before banning a $200+ console. That's why there are always going to be people who say "I don't stealth anything and play everything early and I'm never banned!", along with the poor folks who say "I only play real games on my modded console and I got banned!"
And yes, we can all roll our eyes at the people who mod their console and "never" play a backup copy. Maybe they say that to keep their mothers' respect. I don't know. ;)
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qwert99
Senior Member
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6. November 2009 @ 09:48 |
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Originally posted by jf1981:
Actually I got banned and I modded my xbox and never played a single backup game. just got it flashed just incase my disk get damage. So I do believe that M$ is detecting the firmware and banning people.
Guys like this are the single best source of info about banning that there is.
Perhaps MS is actually checking that 'DVD disconnected' flag after all, finally.
Did you power your 360's drive via your console itself or a connect kit when you flashed, jf1981?
If we can find somebody who flashed using a connect kit and never played an online game, there goes that theory.
$38 on new discs -- Check
$15 on burn after burn that showed as a DVD -- Check
$11 on new laser -- Check
$28 on new multimeter -- Check
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Member
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6. November 2009 @ 09:56 |
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Originally posted by qwert99:
Originally posted by jf1981:
Actually I got banned and I modded my xbox and never played a single backup game. just got it flashed just incase my disk get damage. So I do believe that M$ is detecting the firmware and banning people.
Guys like this are the single best source of info about banning that there is.
Perhaps MS is actually checking that 'DVD disconnected' flag after all, finally.
Did you power your 360's drive via your console itself or a connect kit when you flashed, jf1981?
If we can find somebody who flashed using a connect kit and never played an online game, there goes that theory.
I don't know if i believe this kid because I would have never gotten banned if i didn't play mw2 early. My brother, cousin, and 3 other friends always play verified rips of games and none of them are banned.
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